Annual Forum Papers

Annual Forum Papers (394)

  • Year 2005
  • Publication Author(s) Mike Morris and Leanne Sedowski
  • Countries and Regions Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (Comesa)
The last few years have witnessed two major shifts in global trading and industrialisation patterns. The first is the rise of China (with the South East Asian region in tow) as the dominant force reshaping the relations between developing and developed countries as well as the competitive dynamics within the…
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  • Year 2005
  • Publication Author(s) Reza Daniels and Lawrence Edwards
  • Countries and Regions South Africa
This paper evaluates how tariff liberalisation affected households in South Africa over the period 1995, 2000 and 2004, focussing specifically on the incidence of tariffs over the expenditure distribution. Results suggest that trade liberalisation has reduced the tariff burden for households across the expenditure distribution, implying significant welfare improvement to…
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  • Year 2005
  • Publication Author(s) Ryan Hawthorne, Reena Das Nair and Keith Bowen
  • Countries and Regions South Africa
Between January 2002 and July 2005, the South African exchange rate has appreciated by more than 30 per cent. At the same time, there has been widespread news coverage of the decline in several manufacturing sectors, notably clothing and textiles. Over the same period, commodity prices have risen substantially. The…
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  • Year 2005
  • Publication Author(s) Servaas van der Berg, Ronelle Burger, Rulof Burger, Megan Louw and Derek Yu
  • Countries and Regions South Africa
Using a constructed data series and another data series based on AMPS (the All Media and Products surveys), this paper explores trends in poverty and income distribution over the post-transition period. To steer clear of an unduly optimistic conclusion, assumptions are chosen that would tend to show the least decline…
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  • Year 2005
  • Publication Author(s) Geoff Parr
  • Countries and Regions South Africa
Pricing tradable goods in the domestic market at import parity is evaluated to determine whether it can be characterized as a competitive constraint on pricing, or as a source of market power. The policy of import parity pricing (IPP) is also assessed in terms of the South African Competition Act.…
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  • Year 2005
  • Countries and Regions South Africa
South Africa's low investment rate has been widely recognised as both a symptom and cause of relatively poor industrial performance in the past decade. Investment is particularly important as restructuring requires the rapid growth of new activities if potential gains are to be realised, especially with a view to increasing…
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  • Year 2005
  • Publication Author(s) D Kaplan
  • Countries and Regions South Africa
NOTE: This is an extract from the recent report of the Department of Economic Development, Western Cape Province. The first chapter sets the scene by outlining some of the challenges faced. Chapter 5 sets out the heart of the approach employed in identifying priority sectors and the broad policy approach…
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  • Year 2005
  • Publication Author(s) J.W. Fedderke and A.K. Fitschen
  • Countries and Regions South Africa
This paper examines growth patterns in the Western Cape over the 1970-1996 period by means of primal growth accounting decompositions. Evidence by magisterial district, by statistical region and by SIC 3-digit manufacturing sector is presented. We find that the Western Cape differs from national growth patterns. Manufacturing in the Western…
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  • Year 2005
  • Publication Author(s) Amiena Bayat and Zunaid Moolla
  • Countries and Regions South Africa
Trade and industrial policies are generally viewed from the vantage point of national government. Hence the emphasis on the type of trade regime that should be pursued (tariffs, subsidies, etc), the state of the current account, the exchange rate and geo-political factors (globalisation, power blocs and regional associations). While the…
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  • Year 2005
  • Publication Author(s) Johannes Fedderke;Yongcheol Shin
  • Countries and Regions South Africa
This paper advances on previous work on the effects of trade and technical change on labour markets within the framework of Heckscher-Ohlin trade theory. First, we employ dynamic heterogeneous panel estimation techniques not previously used in thiscontext, which separate Heckscher-Ohlin-based long run relationships from short run dynamics that are heterogeneous…
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  • Year 2005
  • Publication Author(s) Jorge Maia;Lumkile Mondi; Simon Roberts
  • Countries and Regions Mercosur (Common Market of the South), South Africa
Brazil and South Africa share similar development challenges. Both have very unequal income distributions, both have a strong resource orientation underpinning their industrial development trajectory, and both have undergone a sharp liberalisation and opening up of their economies in the past decade. At the same time, both countries are attempting…
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  • Year 2005
  • Publication Author(s) Ryan Hawthorne;Reena Das Nair;Keith Bowen
  • Countries and Regions South Africa
Ryan Hawthorne, Reena Das Nair and Keith Bowen of Johannesburg Economics presented this paper at the TIPS/DPRU/UNU-WIDER Forum 2005. It finds that there may be reasons other than high commodity prices for the general lacklustre growth in manufacturing output, the decline in manufacturing employment and the increase in employment in…
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  • Year 2004
  • Publication Author(s) Nathan Okurut; Andrie Schoombee; Servaas van der Berg
  • Countries and Regions Southern African Development Community (SADC)
Uganda is one of the few African countries which has experienced quite substantial growth in the period since 1990. Growth of GDP has been estimated at 6.9% per annum for the period 1990-2002, compared to only 2.6% for all African countries and Ugandas own far weaker performance of 2.9% in…

  • Year 2004
  • Publication Author(s) Seeraj Mohammed; Kade Finnoff
  • Countries and Regions South Africa
Capital flight is a serious problem for South Africa, which if not addressed will continue to impede its ability to deal with structural issues such as high unemployment and concentration of wealth. This paper presents an estimate of the wealth that left South Africa in the form of capital flight…

  • Year 2004
  • Publication Author(s) Farah Pirouz
  • Countries and Regions South Africa
Recent studies using South African household survey data have questioned the exogeneity of household size and composition from income flows and labour market outcomes. (Maitra and Ray, 2001, and Klasen and Woolard, 2000). Research on unemployment in South Africa has occasionally viewed the household as either an important source of…

  • Year 2004
  • Publication Author(s) Martine Visser; Trudi Hartzenberg
  • Countries and Regions South Africa
Trade liberalisation has a significant impact on firm-market dynamics in a regional context. The purpose of this paper is to use an industrial organisation framework, focusing on the analytical units, the firm and the market, to assess the impact of trade liberalisation within the Southern African region, SADC. It is…

  • Year 2004
  • Publication Author(s) Neren Rau
  • Countries and Regions Southern African Development Community (SADC)
This paper describes the status of financial systems for a number of African countries south of the Sahara, identifying various problems that hinder access to finance, especially for the poor, and subsequently those issues that deter economic performance and development. The countries surveyed were selected on the basis of a…

  • Year 2004
  • Publication Author(s) Andrew Dorward, Jamie Morrison, Peter Wobst, Hans Lofgren and Hardwick Tchale
  • Countries and Regions Malawi
This paper pulls together insights from related farm-household and CGE modelling for Malawi to suggest wider methodological and policy lessons for pro-poor policy analysis in poor agrarian economies. The farm-household and CGE models and the principal results are summarised, and their strengths and weaknesses discussed. The discussion demonstrates the potential…

  • Year 2004
  • Publication Author(s) Taz Chaponda, Neil Cole and Mickie Schoch

  • Year 2004
  • Publication Author(s) Sarah Ssewanyana and Stephen D. Younger
Unusually for an African economy, Uganda's growth has been rapid and sustained for an extended period of time. Further, this growth has clearly translated into substantial declines in poverty for all socio-economic groups and in all regions of the country. Despite this, there is concern in the country that other…
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  • Year 2004
  • Publication Author(s) Francis Baye
This paper (1) develops an exact decomposition framework based on the Shapley Value in cooperative game theory, and (2) investigates the growth and redistribution effects of changes in poverty using Cameroon's household surveys. By all the P class of measures, poverty increased significantly between 1984 and 1996. The growth components…
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  • Year 2004
  • Organisation The Edge Institute
  • Publication Author(s) Stephen Gelb
  • Countries and Regions South Africa
This paper examines the nature of the divide which Mbeki pointed to between the two nations and the reasons for the limited response to this divide during the post-apartheid era since 1994 at which he hints. This paper argues that this response can be understood only through an historical analysis…
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  • Year 2004
  • Publication Author(s) Dorothee Boccanfuso and Tambi Samuel Kabore
Economic growth generally refers to GDP growth. The studies on the link between growth and poverty dynamic (Datt and Ravallion, 1992; Kakwani, 1997; Shorrocks, 1999) measure growth by mean household per capita expenditures. Furthermore, many countries experience at the same time economic growth and growing poverty. It is therefore important…
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  • Year 2004
  • Publication Author(s) Albert de Wet and Steven F. Koch
  • Countries and Regions South Africa
The responsiveness of business investment spending to price changes is central in economic analysis. Despite the key role played by the user cost of capital in economic analysis, there is less supporting evidence for the existence of a substantial user cost elasticity. This study investigates the empirical user cost of…

  • Year 2004
  • Publication Author(s) James Thurlow;Peter Wobst
  • Countries and Regions Zambia
We thank the Department for International Development (DFID) for funding this research and for providing technical and logistical support during the project. We are grateful to Neil McCulloch from the Institute for Development Studies (IDS) at the University of Sussex for the providing us with the cleaned household surveys that…

  • Year 2004
  • Publication Author(s) Cally Ardington and Murray Leibbrandt
This paper examines the impact of formality of employment on the utilisation of financial services, using data from the October 2000 Income and Expenditure Survey and the September 2000 Labour Force Survey. The presence of an employed member in the household is seen to be important for the utilisation of…
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  • Year 2004
  • Publication Author(s) Robert Kappel, Jann Lay and Susan Steiner
  • Countries and Regions Southern African Development Community (SADC)
This article illustrates changing growth regimes in Uganda from pro-poor growth in the 1990s to growth without poverty reduction, actually even a slight increase in poverty, after 2000. Not surprisingly, we find that good agricultural performance is the key determinant of direct pro-poor growth in the 1990s as well as…
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  • Year 2004
  • Publication Author(s) Sandra Freire
The models measuring the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS are heterogeneous : each one relies on a specific theoretical background. Nevertheless, there are, at least, three main common limits to those approaches : the authors concentrate on the impact on the labour market ; they neglect the potential implications on the…

  • Year 2004
  • Organisation Centre for the Study of African EconomiesDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford
  • Publication Author(s) Neil Rankin, Mans Soderbom and Francis Teal
  • Countries and Regions Southern African Development Community (SADC)
The poor performance of many African economies has been associated with low growth of exports in general and of manufacturing exports in particular. In this paper we draw on micro evidence of manufacturing firms in five African countries - Kenya, Ghana, Tanzania, South Africa and Nigeria - to investigate the…