Engineering News - 22 July 2022 (Institute of Plumbing South Africa Media Statement)
SUMMARY: While the concept of a just transition dates back half a century, only recently has it entered the mainstream discourse. Its scope and application remain a source of debates and disagreements, with the term being already co-opted by various parties. The policy interventions required to effect and finance a just transition in a given context are similarly yet to be determined. This paper aims to contribute to unpacking the meaning of a just transition and the tools to foster it. It discusses the three key dimensions of a just transition - procedural, distributive and restorative justice - highlighted the varying degrees of ambition existing in different framings and review the policy toolbox for each of the three dimensions.
KEY FINDING: A socio-economic transition is underway, underpinned primarily by climate change and the Fourth Industrial Revolution. People, communities, companies and countries, however, have a different ability to respond and adapt to the disruption. This is compounded by the persistence of a deeply unequal political and economic system. This has led to calls for a “just transition” to an inclusive green economy, to ensure that vulnerable stakeholders are better off through the transition process, or at least not negatively impacted by it. Yet the scope and application of the just transition agenda remain a source of debates and disagreements.
SUMMARY: This book analyses South Africa's low-carbon transition debate and process. Theoretical insights, including new models and concepts, and praxis through illustrations from South Africa’s growing landscape of sustainable development policies and programmes, are summarised. It assesses whether these transition pathways are beginning to reconfigure the system-level structures hindering the country’s goal of “ensuring environmental sustainability and an equitable transition to a low-carbon economy”. The book raises the question of whether South Africa’s policy and programme interventions sufficiently incorporate justice and inclusivity.
KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: Sustainability transitions offer new ways of shifting South Africa’s resource-intensive economy towards low-carbon pathways linked to the country’s transformative development agenda. The book calls for inclusive approaches to greening the South African economy, catering for the most vulnerable in society and ensuring the benefits of sustainability innovations reach all South Africans.
SUMMARY: The research looks at the economic costs of transition from coal. The authors use secondary data and conduct surveys on coal companies to calculate costs related to the transition over a period of 20 years.
KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: The paper estimates the cost of coal worker protection over 20 years in two scenarios. In scenario 1, an 82% attrition rate is calculated, with 6 600 coal workers needing retraining and re-employment over 20 years. In the second scenario, about 75% of electricity will be decommissioned by 2043 and 32 920 (1 646 per year) workers will need retraining. The estimated cost of a Just Transition for coal workers over 20 years is R6 billion: salaried compensation costs up to R1.2 billion, retraining at R621 million, relocation costs of R100 million, and regional development and rehabilitation costs of R4 billion.
SUMMARY: The study analyses the employment impacts of different plans for expanding electricity generation in South Africa’s power sector. The report assesses the skill attainment levels required for energy transition, and the potential for workers to transfer from the coal sector to the emerging renewable energy sector. Four scenarios, which consider two timelines, are presented. The short-term 2030 timeline is based on the expected electricity generation mix to meet the rising demand in the country and which is aligned with the National Development Plan 2030. The long-term timeline is based on electricity generation mix predicted to meet the projected growth in energy demand up to 2050, and considers the predicted decommissioning timeline of coal power plants.
KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: The study finds among other things that increasing the share of renewables can raise employment by 40 % (580 000 job years) in the period 2018 to 2030; with the shift from IRP 2016 to IRP 2018 an additional 1.3 million jobs are created economy-wide by 2050, 17% in the power sector by 2050; most job creation in renewable power generation is within the high-skilled labour group (educational attainment level above Grade-12), although employment is also created in other skill groups; and declining global demand for coal is the largest impact factor for coal mining employment.
SUMMARY: The report looks at climate action policy and the developmental challenges South Africa faces in its approach to energy transition. These include high and rising unemployment and poverty levels in coal-dependent communities like Mpumalanga, education and skills deficits, lack of integrated industrial policy to boost labour-intensive sectors, and infrastructure constraints. To attain the objectives of the Paris agreement, total installed capacity must be 113 GW by 2030 and 240 GW by 2040 for electricity generation from wind and solar power, and renewable energy technologies should account for 67% of electricity by 2030 and 99% by 2050. .
KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: South Africa is dependent on fossil fuel for energy, particularly coal. Due to the Paris agreement, net investment in the coal sector has declined at a rate of 10% a year as coal becomes increasingly uncompetitive. Considering the possible effects of the transition on employment and economic activity, the report suggests creating worker transfer programmes and integrated multipurpose retraining programmes, as well as diversifying industry outside of the coal industry to boost the attractiveness of the region and increase opportunities for economic linkages into other areas.
SUMMARY: This report promotes an ecosystems-based approach to promote environmental sustainability and addresses the challenges outlined in the National Development plan. It puts forward forming a Just Transition taskforce driven by the presidency to support the transition process. Several proposals are made to offset the risks of job-losses and support employment creation and intensification in the transition process.
KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: Among proposals for job creation/intensification are, in mining, absorbing laid-off miners in infrastructure development, and repurposing abandoned mine shafts for pumped storage of electricity and for other economic activities; in manufacturing capitalising on the construction, installation, and operation of clean energy technologies including green transport vehicles, localising where the country can compete with imports manufacturing renewable energy technologies and localising production of water treatment and water conservation technologies and manufacture; and in energy enabling Eskom to invest in renewable energy.
SUMMARY: The report provides a segmented view of the net direct job creation expected in the formal economy across a wide range of technologies/activities that may be classified as green or contributing to the greening of the economy. The report aims to contribute to strategic planning. It highlights implementation challenges to unlock the green economy`s potential. It brings to the fore the importance of stakeholder interventions to develop competitive advantage in specific green areas. The report covers 26 industries including the energy generation, energy and resource efficiency, emission and pollution mitigation, and natural resource management sectors.
KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: Recommendations for greening the economy should result in expansions of productive capacity and service delivery across a wide spectrum of economic sectors, although contractions may be experienced in others. This should be progressively supported by investment activity and result in meaningful employment creation. A growing green economy should also translate into opportunities for localisation of production, either by using existing production capabilities, or the establishing new capacity.
Business Day - 14 October 2019 by Neva Makgetla (TIPS Senior Economist)
Read online at Business Day.
Or read as a PDF.
RESPONSE TO COLUMN
Letter in Business Day - 30 October 2019 by Dr Doug Blackmur (Flamingo Vlei)
Read online at Business Day.