Annual Forum Papers

Annual Forum Papers (437)

  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) DK Grover; Anteneh Temesgen
  • Countries and Regions Southern African Development Community (SADC)
Ethiopia is one of the poorest and least developed countries in the world. The country had a real per capita GDP of less than US $100 in 1995, and over 60 per cent of its population lives in absolute poverty. The problem of rural poverty and underdeveloped agriculture are closely…

  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) Anna McCord; Dirk van Seventer
  • Countries and Regions South Africa
This paper examines the performance of public works in addressing both micro and macroeconomic policy objectives relating to growth, employment and poverty reduction in South Africa. Survey data on the micro-economic impact of public worksprogramme participation is used alongside a social accounting matrix (SAM) for the South African economy which…

  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) Andrew Dorward, Jamie Morrison, Peter Wobst, Hans Lofgren and Hardwick Tchale
  • Countries and Regions Malawi
This paper pulls together insights from related farm-household and CGE modelling for Malawi to suggest wider methodological and policy lessons for pro-poor policy analysis in poor agrarian economies. The farm-household and CGE models and the principal results are summarised, and their strengths and weaknesses discussed. The discussion demonstrates the potential…

  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) Taz Chaponda, Neil Cole and Mickie Schoch

  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) Sarah Ssewanyana and Stephen D. Younger
Unusually for an African economy, Uganda's growth has been rapid and sustained for an extended period of time. Further, this growth has clearly translated into substantial declines in poverty for all socio-economic groups and in all regions of the country. Despite this, there is concern in the country that other…
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  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) Francis Baye
This paper (1) develops an exact decomposition framework based on the Shapley Value in cooperative game theory, and (2) investigates the growth and redistribution effects of changes in poverty using Cameroon's household surveys. By all the P class of measures, poverty increased significantly between 1984 and 1996. The growth components…
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  • Year 2004
  • Organisation The Edge Institute
  • Author(s) Stephen Gelb
  • Countries and Regions South Africa
This paper examines the nature of the divide which Mbeki pointed to between the two nations and the reasons for the limited response to this divide during the post-apartheid era since 1994 at which he hints. This paper argues that this response can be understood only through an historical analysis…
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  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) Dorothee Boccanfuso and Tambi Samuel Kabore
Economic growth generally refers to GDP growth. The studies on the link between growth and poverty dynamic (Datt and Ravallion, 1992; Kakwani, 1997; Shorrocks, 1999) measure growth by mean household per capita expenditures. Furthermore, many countries experience at the same time economic growth and growing poverty. It is therefore important…
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  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) Albert de Wet and Steven F. Koch
  • Countries and Regions South Africa
The responsiveness of business investment spending to price changes is central in economic analysis. Despite the key role played by the user cost of capital in economic analysis, there is less supporting evidence for the existence of a substantial user cost elasticity. This study investigates the empirical user cost of…

  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) James Thurlow;Peter Wobst
  • Countries and Regions Zambia
We thank the Department for International Development (DFID) for funding this research and for providing technical and logistical support during the project. We are grateful to Neil McCulloch from the Institute for Development Studies (IDS) at the University of Sussex for the providing us with the cleaned household surveys that…

  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) Cally Ardington and Murray Leibbrandt
This paper examines the impact of formality of employment on the utilisation of financial services, using data from the October 2000 Income and Expenditure Survey and the September 2000 Labour Force Survey. The presence of an employed member in the household is seen to be important for the utilisation of…
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  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) Robert Kappel, Jann Lay and Susan Steiner
  • Countries and Regions Southern African Development Community (SADC)
This article illustrates changing growth regimes in Uganda from pro-poor growth in the 1990s to growth without poverty reduction, actually even a slight increase in poverty, after 2000. Not surprisingly, we find that good agricultural performance is the key determinant of direct pro-poor growth in the 1990s as well as…
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  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) Sandra Freire
The models measuring the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS are heterogeneous : each one relies on a specific theoretical background. Nevertheless, there are, at least, three main common limits to those approaches : the authors concentrate on the impact on the labour market ; they neglect the potential implications on the…

  • Year 2004
  • Organisation Centre for the Study of African EconomiesDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford
  • Author(s) Neil Rankin, Mans Soderbom and Francis Teal
  • Countries and Regions Southern African Development Community (SADC)
The poor performance of many African economies has been associated with low growth of exports in general and of manufacturing exports in particular. In this paper we draw on micro evidence of manufacturing firms in five African countries - Kenya, Ghana, Tanzania, South Africa and Nigeria - to investigate the…

  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) Anders Danielson
  • Countries and Regions Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (Comesa)
Studying the relation between economic growth and income poverty reduction without taking changes in the distribution of income into consideration is like setting up Othello without Iago in the play. Without any further references to Shakespeare, this paper examines the relations between poverty levels, economic growth and changes in inequality…

  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) David Lam; Murray Leibbrandt; Vimal Ranchhod
  • Countries and Regions South Africa
This paper provides a broad overview of the labor force activity of older workers in South Africa. We begin the paper with a discussion of important features of the social and economic environment that provide a background for the analysis. Drawing on excellent microdata, we then analyze the age profile…

  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) Rashid M. Mfaume and Wilhelm Leonard
  • Countries and Regions Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (Comesa)
Small Business Entrepreneurship haves been seen as a hub in generating income for the majority of urban dwellers with no formal paid employment. In Tanzania, entry into small business entrepreneurship is usually not seen as a problem. One can start small business at any time and in any place. However,…

  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) David J Spielman
  • Countries and Regions Southern African Development Community (SADC)
Agricultural research and development (R&D) is critical to the improvement of incomes and livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa. However, several studies on agricultural R&D suggest that many countries in the region are unable to bring public and private sector assets and resources together as a means of advancing agricultural R&D. This…
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  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) Imraan Valodia and Myriam Velia
  • Countries and Regions South Africa
We begin by presenting an overview of manufacturing in the Durban area and report on the GDMA survey, highlighting the methodology and key objectives and findings of the survey. We then focus on the international trade issues, reporting on how firms in the GDMA are responding to trade liberalisation. We…

  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) Thandi Phele; Simon Roberts; Ian Steuart
  • Countries and Regions South Africa
This paper examines the impact of national developments and policies on the development of industry in Ekurhuleni. It assesses role of local government in industrial development in light of recent literature addressing agglomeration effects, industrial districts, and the development of local economic competencies and institutions. The analysis draws on recent…
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  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) Tsegaye Yilma Dessalegn;Ernst Berg; Thomas Berger
  • Countries and Regions Southern African Development Community (SADC)
There is a general consensus that bad economic policies, among other factors, are to blame for the poor performance of economies in sub Saharan African (SSA). However, there is no similar consensus on the effect of economic reforms on poverty alleviation, a primary goal of any economy in the region.…
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  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) Wagayehu Bekele
  • Countries and Regions Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (Comesa)
The aim of this paper is to better understand farmers' perception of the relevance of different development intervention programs. Farmers' subjective ranking of agricultural problems and their preference for development intervention are elicited using a stated preference method. The factors influencing these preferences are determined using a random utility model.…

  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) Babasanmi Babatope-Obasa; Michael Adebayo Adebiyi
  • Countries and Regions Southern African Development Community (SADC)
In this study, we set out to empirically investigate the impact of interest rates and other macroeconomic factors on manufacturing performance in Nigeria using co-integration and an error correction mechanism (ECM) technique with annual time series covering the period between 1970 and 2002. Some statistical tools are employed to explore…

  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) Dorrit Posel; James Fairburn; Frances Lund
  • Countries and Regions South Africa
This paper re-examines the effect of the South African social pension on the labour supply of working-age adults using data from 1993. We take account of the fact that households may include non-resident members, and therefore that the pension may play a role in facilitating migration to work or look…

  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) Espen Villanger
"The United States has played a leading role in shaping the World Bank's agenda, and Bank projects often support U.S. foreign policy goals. For example, the Bank is providing resources to assist in the transition of central Europe and the countries of the former Soviet Union from communist to market-basedsystems.…

  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) Daniela Casale; Colette Muller; Dorrit Posel
  • Countries and Regions South Africa
In this paper we investigate labour market trends in South Africa between October 1995 and March 2003. In particular, we evaluate the South African government's claim that over this period, the economy created two million net new jobs. Using the same household survey data as that used to generate official…

  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) Afeikhena Jerome
  • Countries and Regions Southern African Development Community (SADC)
Despite the perceived role of efficient infrastructure as critical element for economic growth, poverty reduction and the attainment of the millennium development goals, there is clear evidence that the provision of infrastructure in Africa has been much below standard in terms of quantity and quality. Over the past decade, there…
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  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) Morne Oosthuizen; Haroon Bhorat
  • Countries and Regions South Africa
Since 1994, the South African economy has undergone significant changes with the government implementing various policies aimed at redressing the injustices of the past, fleshing out the welfare system and improving competitiveness as South Africa becomes increasingly integrated into the global economy. These policies have, directly or indirectly, impacted on…

  • Year 2004
  • Author(s) Channing Arndt; Kenneth Simler
  • Countries and Regions Mozambique
The "Cost of Basic Needs" (CBN) approach to drawing consumption based poverty lines is widely applied and lays credible claim to being the best practice for estimating poverty measures. Unfortunately, a growing mass of evidence indicates that poverty estimates obtained under the CBN approach are often demonstrably utility inconsistent. Here,…
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