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The Real Economy Bulletin
The Real Economy Bulletin is a TIPS review of quarterly trends, developments and data in the real economy, together with analysis of the main manufacturing industries and key data in Excel format.
This bulletin provides information about quarterly trends in the real economy – that is, agriculture, mining, manufacturing, construction and productive services – with an initial focus on manufacturing. We will fill the gaps left by most quarterly bulletins on the economy by analysing growth, investment and employment at the industry level.
Every quarter, the bulletin will highlight major new projects, developments in leading manufacturing companies and policy changes in the past quarter. It will consolidate the available data on manufacturing subsectors into an easy overview of key trends. Periodically, we will present deep dives into key issues facing the real economy.
The annual REB Provincial Review analyses developments in the real economy and in development policies and projects at the provincial level.
Main Bulletin: The Real Economy Bulletin - Third Quarter 2017 In this edition GDP growth: The past six months have seen the GDP recover from the contraction that marked the previous six months. Still, growth remains more variable, and generally slower, than it was before 2014. Increased variability in the GDP results in part from the end of the commodity boom and in part from fluctuations in agriculture as a result of the 2015 drought. While mining and manufacturing have seen fairly stable growth, construction slowed markedly in the year to September 2017. Private investment has continued to fall, and was a…
Small business is often seen as a key potential driver of job creation, equality and innovation in South Africa. The National Development Plan argues that small business can open new opportunities to create jobs as well as be a route to economic empowerment. In manufacturing, small business accounts for only a tenth of revenue, but a fifth of employment. Small business provides 55% of formal employment and the available evidence shows virtually no increase in the number of small businesses since 2008, and only relatively slow employment growth. South Africa continues to have low levels of small business compared to…
Main Bulletin: The Real Economy Bulletin - Second Quarter 2017 In this edition GDP growth: South Africa’s recovery in the second quarter of 2017 continued an emerging pattern of sharp quarterly fluctuations in growth. In this case, expansion was driven principally by agriculture and mining, with only a modest improvement in manufacturing and a decline in construction. On the expenditure side, household consumption underpinned the recovery, with a continued slowdown in government spending and a further fall in investment, especially by the private sector and parastatals. Read more. Employment: As a contrast to growth in GDP, according to the official data, employment in…
Main Bulletin: The Real Economy Bulletin - First Quarter 2017 In this edition: GDP growth: South Africa entered a technical recession with a second quarter of contraction in a row. Investment emerges as the primary drag on economy growth, as confirmed by the decrease in mining production and the sectoral slowdown in utilities and construction. While manufacturing returned to growth over the past year, sales were still depressed, showing a slight decline. Read more. Employment: Employment reportedly climbed 500 000 in the year to the first quarter of 2017, reaching 16.2 million. Business services, manufacturing (primarily wood and paper, and food and beverages)…
Main Bulletin: The Real Economy Bulletin - Fourth Quarter 2016 In this edition: Quarterly GDP growth: South Africa’s GDP fell by 0.08% over the past quarter, driven mostly by a decline in the real economy, above all mining. Mining contracted by 3,0%, manufacturing by 0,8%, and agriculture by 0,1%. These trends contributed to the continued slowdown in growth, which came to just 0,3% for 2016 as a whole. Read more. Employment: Employment showed the typical seasonal bump from the third to the fourth quarter, growing 250 000 overall. Year-on-year figures, which compensate for seasonal fluctuations, show more modest growth, at 50 000.…
Main bulletin: The Real Economy Bulletin - Third Quarter 2016 In this edition: Quarterly GDP growth: South Africa’s third quarter GDP growth, seasonally adjusted but not annualised, fell back to 0,05% compared to the surprisingly strong 0,8% expansion in the second quarter. Mining continued to recover from the sharp drop in the second quarter, growing by 1,4%, while manufacturing gave up the gains it made in the previous quarter. Agriculture lost ground for the seventh quarter in a row. Read more. Employment: Total employment remained virtually unchanged from the third quarter of 2015 to the third quarter of 2016. But the composition of…
Main bulletin: The Real Economy Bulletin - Second Quarter 2016 In this edition: Quarterly GDP growth: South Africa’s GDP grew by 0,8% in the second quarter of 2016, in a marked recovery from the 0,3% contraction in the first quarter of the year. Mining and manufacturing made the largest sectoral contributions to growth. Mining grew (quarter on quarter) by 2,8%, while manufacturing grew by 2,0%. Agriculture continued to decline as the drought persisted, utilities fell by 0,4% and construction remained unchanged. Read more. Employment: Despite the relatively rapid growth in GDP in the second quarter of 2016, according to the official data employment in…
The annual REB Provincial Review analyses developments in the real economy and in development policies and projects at the provincial level. Main Bulletin: The Real Economy Bulletin Provincial Review 2016 Introduction: The share of provinces in the national GDP and population varies substantially. Gauteng alone accounts for over a third of the GDP and almost a quarter of the population. In contrast, the Eastern Cape accounts for 13% of the population but 8% of the GDP, while the Northern Cape contributes just 2% of both the economy and the population. The differences are even starker in the provinces' contribution to the real…
Main bulletin: The Real Economy Bulletin - First Quarter 2016 In this edition: Production and sales: The first quarter of 2016 was marked by a contraction in GDP, with the economy reported as shrinking by 0,3%, or 1,2% on an annualised basis. The immediate cause of the downturn was a 4,9% quarterly decline (equal to 18% in annualised terms) in mining and a 1,7% fall (or 6,5% at an annual rate) in agriculture. These contractions had a particularly sharp impact on overall growth because of a longer-term slowdown in growth in manufacturing and, to a lesser extent, the rest of the…
The Real Economy Bulletin - Fourth Quarter 2015 In this edition: Production and sales: In the past quarter, agricultural output dropped sharply, by 4%, while manufacturing shrank by 0,6%. Mining, however, climbed by 0,4%. Overall, GDP growth slowed significantly compared to the previous quarter. Read more. Employment: After falling fairly steadily from 2008, manufacturing employment levelled out in 2015. Total employment climbed by 700 000 over the year, with the bulk of net new jobs emerging in public, private and domestic services and retail. Still, the global slowdown, drought and pressure on mining and heavy industry led to widespread anticipation…
The Real Economy Bulletin - Third Quarter 2015: Growth in the GDP and employment: In the past quarter manufacturing showed a significant recovery, although both mining and agriculture contracted. Read more Trends in trade: In US dollar terms, exports declined in the past year, but rapid depreciation means they have generally increased in rand terms. Within manufacturing, the past quarter saw higher exports from wood and paper and to a lesser extent from auto, but chemicals exports dropped sharply. Imports declined in both dollar and rand terms over the year to the third quarter of 2015. Read more Profitability and investment: In the second quarter…