Janet Wilhelm
Innovation needed to boost small enterprises
Business Day - 13 September 2016 by Neva Makgetla
The Real Economy Bulletin - Second Quarter 2016
Main bulletin: The Real Economy Bulletin - Second Quarter 2016
In this edition:
Quarterly GDP growth: South Africa’s GDP grew by 0,8% in the second quarter of 2016, in a marked recovery from the 0,3% contraction in the first quarter of the year. Mining and manufacturing made the largest sectoral contributions to growth. Mining grew (quarter on quarter) by 2,8%, while manufacturing grew by 2,0%. Agriculture continued to decline as the drought persisted, utilities fell by 0,4% and construction remained unchanged. Read more.
Employment: Despite the relatively rapid growth in GDP in the second quarter of 2016, according to the official data employment in the economy as a whole fell by 130 000, or around 0,8% in the second quarter of 2016 compared to the first quarter, and around 0,7% when compared to the previous year. Read more.
Trends in trade: The second quarter of 2016 saw a strong uptick in exports combined with falling imports, mostly due to the falling price of petrol. The resulting improvement in the balance of trade boosted GDP growth. While both manufacturing and mining exports fell in dollar terms, they expanded in constant rand, with manufacturing exports rising by 8.6% and mining by 5.1%. Agricultural exports also performed exceptionally during the quarter, but that partly reflects seasonal factors. Read more.
Investment and profitability: A decline in investment, particularly by the state, was the biggest drag on GDP growth in the second quarter of 2016. Profitability across the economy declined in the first quarter of 2016 compared to the first quarter of 2015, with worsening losses in mining. In contrast, manufacturing and construction enjoyed a higher profit rate for the quarter compared to the previous year. Read more.
Behind the trends: Exports were the main driver of the surge in growth in the GDP in the second quarter of 2016, largely thanks to the auto industry. Critical for export growth was the persistence of relatively competitive exchange rates as well as some recovery in the U.S. and Europe in the past year. While welcome, these developments emerged in the context of fairly gloomy prospects for growth in the medium term. Read more.
Growth in the BRICS: Divergent developments in the BRICS in the past five years illustrate the extraordinary impact of the slowdown in Chinese growth on middle-income economies. They also show how this kind of sharply slower growth can play out in greater political contestation and uncertainty. Read more.
Growth in the SADC: The rest of Africa now represents around 30% of South Africa’s export market, up slightly from 2010. The bulk of South African exports to the rest of the continent go to Namibia, Botswana, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Because the region is growing rapidly compared to most other regions, despite the end of the commodity boom, it represents a significant opportunity. Read more.
Briefing note - Impact of the drought: Despite the relatively strong growth in the rest of the economy in the past quarter, agriculture posted its sixth consecutive quarter of economic decline.Stats SA reported that, in seasonally adjusted terms, agriculture contracted by almost 15% from R78 billion in the fourth quarter of 2014 to R66 billion in the second quarter of 2016. Read the briefing note online: Impacts of the drought.
Kelello Mashiane
Kelello Mashiane is assisting with the Foreign Direct Investment Project. She has a bachelor’s degree from UNISA and two years' work experience as a research assistant at the Economic Development Department. She worked on several data collection projects at EDD and provided research support to the Chief Economist.
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SA’s proposed sugar tax: claims about calories & job losses checked
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Sugary drink companies copy tobacco textbook
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Fatal flaw in sugar industry argument, new analysis shows
Business Day - 30 August 2016 by Tamar Kahn
City Press - 29 August 2016 by Dewald Van Rensberg
APORDE 2016: Public seminars
African Programme on Rethinking Development Economics (APORDE)
APORDE is an annual training programme that brings together academics, policymakers and civil society representatives to investigate economic development options. It aims to build capacity in economics and economic policymaking. The course is run for two weeks and consists of lectures and seminars taught by international and African economists. TIPS co-facilitates the programme, and co-hosts a number of seminars.
Lectures open to the public during the two week programme.
1. Alice Amsden Memorial Lecture
Speaker: Minister Malusi Gigaba
Date: Monday 5 September 2016
Time: 18h30
Venue: Senate Room, 2nd Floor Senate House, Wits University
Co-host: University of Witwatersrand and TIPS
For more information go to Alice Amsden Memorial Lecture.
2. Inequality, Investment and Growth
Speakers: José Gabriel Palma; Kate Philip
Date: Tuesday 6 September 2016
Time: 13h30
Venue: TIPS offices; 234 Lange Street Pretoria
Co-host: The Economies of Regions Learning Network
For more information go to: Inequality, Investment and Growth.
3. International financial flows and financial crises
Speaker: José Gabriel Palma
Date: Thursday 8 September 2016
Time: 18h00
Venue: CCRED offices, 2nd Floor 5 Sturdee Avenue Rosebank
Co-host: Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development (CCRED)
4. Labour, Economic Development and the Minimum Wage Debate in South Africa
Speakers: Gilad Isaacs
Date: Monday 12 September 2016
Time: 18h30
Venue: IDC Conference Centre; 19 Fredman Drive, Sandton
Co-host: Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) and Independent World of Work
5. Social Policy and its Linkages with Industrial Policy
Speaker: Thandika Mkandawire
Date: Tuesday 13 September 2016
Time: 17h30
Venue: C-Ring 315, Auckland Park Kingsway Campus, University of Johannesburg
Co-host: South African Research Chair in Industrial Development, University of Johannesburg,
RSVP by email: Daphney@tips.org.za or Rozale@tips.org.za to confirm attendance.
Please note which seminar you will be attending in your confirmation.
APORDE 2016: Alice Amsden Memorial Lecture
Alice Amsden Memoria Lecture
Topic: The State-Business Relationship and Industrial Policy
Speaker: Malusi Gigaba, Minister of Home Affairs
About the Speaker
Malusi Gigaba is the Minister of Home Affairs. He was South Africa's Public Enterprises Minister and prior to this appointment, he was the Deputy Minister of Home Affairs for South Africa. Gigaba is also the former President of the African National Congress Youth League and a Member of the African National Congress NEC. He is a Member of the National Working Committee of the African National Congress and a Patron of the OASIS for Hope Hospice.
About Alice Amsden
Alice H. Amsden, an expert in economic development who served as the Barton L.
Weller Professor of Political Economy in MIT's Department of Urban Studies and
Planning, died suddenly on March 14 at her home in Cambridge. She was 68.
A prolific scholar, Amsden wrote extensively about the process of industrialization in
emerging economies, particularly in Asia. Her work frequently emphasized the
importance of the state as a creator of economic growth, and challenged the idea that
globalization had produced generally uniform conditions in which emerging economies
could find a one-size-fits-all path to prosperity.
Please RSVP by 1 Sept 2016 to Rozale@tips.org.za
Finger food will be served