In the first quarter of 2022, 33 new projects were added to the Tracker, of which 30 recorded a total pledged investment value of R79.4 billion for the period. With the exception of three investments, projects captured this quarter were announced at the South African Investment Conference held in March 2022. The Tracker further identified 3 720 employment opportunities from five projects, comprised of 1 720 permanent jobs and 2 000 temporary opportunities. Monitoring has updated 12 projects previously added to the Tracker.

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Lucas Mthembu is a Researcher at TIPS. His research interests include industrial policy, global value chains, and socioeconomic development. He holds a Bachelor of Social Science in Social Development and Industrial Sociology and a BSocSc Honours in Social Development from the University of Cape Town. He is completing a Master's in Social Development at UCT. His dissertation explores the experiences of South African youth seeking investment opportunities through Easy Equities and contributions to their socioeconomic inclusion. 

South Africa’s merchandise exports experienced a marginal decline in the second quarter of 2022, decreasing by 1.8% year-on-year to R514 billion, while they increased by 10.3% from the previous quarter (Q1 2022). The second quarter of 2022 saw imports increase by 27.7% year-on-year, amounting to R446 billion in constant rand terms, representing a 10.8% increase from the previous quarter. South Africa experienced a R68 billion (US$4.3 billion) trade surplus, a significant decline from a R174 billion surplus in the second quarter of 2021. In US dollar terms, merchandise exports were down by 4.9% from Q2 2021, amounting to US$33.1 billion, although they increased by 9.6% from the previous quarter. Imports were up 23.6% to R28.7 billion, an increase of 10.1% from Q1 2022.

Main Bulletin: The Real Economy Bulletin - Third Quarter 2022

In this edition

GDP growth: GDP grew by 1.6% in the third quarter of 2022, an unexpectedly strong performance in light of intensified loadshedding and continuing volatility in the global economy. Agriculture grew most rapidly, at an exceptional 19%, while the rest of the economy expanded far more modestly. For the first time, the GDP has now exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Read More

Employment: According to the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), in the third quarter of 2022 the formal sector employed around 615 000 fewer people than in the third quarter of 2019. There has, however, been a significant recovery from the third quarter of 2021 with close to 1.5 million jobs gained, led by robust recoveries in white collar jobs and in the informal sector. Domestic workers have continued to experience job losses this quarter, with no sign of recovery to pre-pandemic levels. The response rate for Stats SA’s QLFS has continued to improve, rising from 79% in the second quarter of 2022 to 85% in the third quarter of this year, approaching pre-pandemic rates. Read More

International trade: South Africa’s surplus in goods trade continued to narrow in the third quarter as prices for key export commodities declined, with the exception of coal, while imports climbed. Logistics challenges have affected coal and auto, and imports have grown faster than exports across most manufactured goods categories. In these circumstances, soaring coal prices have not been sufficient to maintain the record trade surpluses seen since the pandemic. Read More

Investment: Investment in the third quarter of 2022 grew 0.3%, with private investment contracting slightly and public investment expanding sharply for the first time in a decade. The investment rate maintained the 14% level from the previous quarter, up from 13% in the third quarter of 2021 – still far below the level of around 20% required for steady growth. Returns on assets climbed sharply in manufacturing and the rest of the economy outside of mining and construction. Despite the decline in mining, profitability remained very high by historic standards. Read More

Foreign direct investment projects: The TIPS Foreign Direct Investment Tracker monitors FDI projects on a quarterly basis, using published investment information. Twelve projects were added to the Tracker in the third quarter of this year. The pledged investment value recorded for the third quarter of 2022 was just over R22.6 billion, captured from nine projects. Information was updated for nine investments previously captured in the Tracker. Read More

Briefing Note: JETPs - just transition finance blueprints or business-as-usual?  - by Gaylor Montmasson-Clair and Muhammed Patel. Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) have emerged as a mechanism to foster the transition in the Global South. Following on the announcement at COP26 of the US$8.5 billion JETP for South Africa (with the UK, Germany, France and the US along with the EU), Indonesia struck a US$20 billion deal at COP27. Many others could follow, from India, to Vietnam, to Senegal. With such arrangements becoming more prevalent, it is worth taking a closer look at South Africa’s JETP, the most advanced of the partnerships to date. Read the Briefing Note online: JETPs - just transition finance blueprints or business-as-usual.

Briefing Note: Economic implications of the 2022 MPBPS - by Nishal Robb. The 2022 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) reaffirms National Treasury’s commitment to pursue steep budget cuts over the next few years despite the negative social and economic outcomes that the cuts are likely to produce. Read the Briefing Note online: Economic implications of the 2022 MPBPS.

This new TIPS publication tracks South Africa's progress towards an inclusive green economy with 14 national indicators to understand the country's path to transition. Read here: Green Economy Bulletin 2022

Business Day - 26 September 2022 by Neva Makgetla (TIPS Senior Economist)

Read online at Business Day

Or read as a PDF

Following three consecutive quarters of decline, South Africa’s trade surplus increased from R61.4 billion in the first quarter of 2022 to R71.1 billion in the second quarter of 2022. Still, this surplus is about 56% lower the peak of R160.1 billion in the second quarter of 2021. Exports declined by about 0.2% to R519 billion in the year to the second quarter of 2022, but were nevertheless 70% higher compared to the second quarter 2020, at the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic-related lockdown for South Africa. In contrast, imports increased by about 28% to R448 billion in the year to the second quarter of 2022, and about 64% higher than in the second quarter of 2020 (in constant 2022 Rand). This is the highest reported value for second quarter imports, driven in part by South Africa’s deepening energy crisis.

A green economy includes the principles of sustainability, inclusivity, equity, efficiency and low-carbon development. References to South Africa’s commitment to and pursuit of a green economy can be found in many national policies, plans and strategies, as documented by the Green Economy Coalition’s Green Economy Tracker. To date, however. there have been few efforts to measure progress in the transition towards an inclusive green economy. This is changing with the launch of this new publication, the Green Economy Bulletin (GEB), which tracks the progress in South Africa against a selected set of economic, social and environmental indicators.

Fourteen metrics have been chosen for measurement. These, while by no means exhaustive, indicate progress (or lack thereof) in the development of green industries and the greening of others. As a green economy can only be sustainable if it is inclusive, equitable and improves human well-being, social indicators are also included in the GEB. They track human well-being through trends in inequality and access to (good quality) basic services, food and education. Then, environmental indicators, such as greenhouse gas emissions and the country’s biocapacity relative to its ecological footprint and water security, measure the extent to which South Africa lives within or “overshoots” natural thresholds and stocks of natural capital.

Download a copy of the Green Economy Bulletin or read online

Data for the Green Economy Bulletin 2022 is available in Excel format: GEB data sheets

Media

Press release: South Africa has some way to go to meet its sustainability commitments

Monitoring identified 23 projects in the fourth quarter of 2021, These recorded a total pledged investment value of R128.2 billion. The Tracker further recorded 263 employment opportunities from one project, comprising 59 permanent jobs and 204 temporary employment opportunities. The majority of projects captured this quarter were announced as preferred bidders in Bid Window 5 of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP). Three existing projects were updated in the Tracker this quarter.