Business Day - 3 August 2020 by Neva Makgetla (TIPS Senior Economist)

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Engineering News -  3 August 2020 

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OOSAKAnews -  29 July 2020 

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Engineering News -  28 July 2020 

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The COVID-19 pandemic has dealt a body blow to the global economy, and South Africa is no exception. Recovery will not succeed, however, unless it addresses the long-standing blockages to inclusive growth. That in turn requires both immediate efforts, to minimise the economic impacts of the pandemic even while it still rages, and longer-run strategies to diversify the economy away from mining and to ensure greater equality in education, workplaces, and access to assets. These kinds of strategies inevitably require innovation and consequently entail risks, as well as running into resistance from the beneficiaries of the status quo. But South Africa will not achieve either higher growth or social cohesion unless it does more to promote a more inclusive, diversified and equitable economy.

This policy brief reviews the short- and long-run impacts of the pandemic on the economy, followed by proposals for moderating these impacts while laying the foundations for faster, more equitable and more inclusive growth after the pandemic ends.

Download a copy or read Policy Brief online.

With greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions coming to the fore of nations’ climate policy concerns, the wine industry faces a new challenge. Viniculture (grape cultivation for winemaking) is directly susceptible to climate change impacts due to grapevines being highly sensitive to the surrounding environment, such as changes in weather patterns. In addition, the industry is increasingly targeted by climate change response measures, aimed at reducing GHG emissions. Such measures are poised to significantly alter traditional methods of production. Trade-related climate change response measures, such as shifts in import-export patterns, border carbon adjustments or non-tariff barriers (such as standards), are increasingly more prevalent. Accordingly, “green protectionism”, i.e. the justification of protectionist measures under the guise of addressing climate change and other environmental goals, is also becoming more prevalent internationally.

This paper unpacks the green protectionism dynamics affecting the domestic wine value chain that stand to be a growing risk moving forward. The paper also explores the factors that make it particularly difficult and yet necessary for South African producers to adapt to this new genus of regulation.

Report produced by TIPS for the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition.

Media Article

What wine industry can do to keep its fizz amid rising threats - Business Day - 5 August 2020 by Gaylor Montmasson-Clair and Kudzabi Mataba

With greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions coming to the fore of nations’ climate policy concerns, the wine industry faces a new challenge. Viniculture (grape cultivation for winemaking) is directly susceptible to climate change impacts due to grapevines being highly sensitive to the surrounding environment, such as changes in weather patterns. In addition, the industry is increasingly targeted by climate change response measures, aimed at reducing GHG emissions. Such measures are poised to significantly alter traditional methods of production. Trade-related climate change response measures, such as shifts in import-export patterns, border carbon adjustments or non-tariff barriers (such as standards), are also increasingly more prevalent.

South Africa is the world’s sixth largest exporter of wine in volume and has not been exempt from these trade impacts. This paper unpacks the green protectionism dynamics which have increasingly impacted the domestic wine value chain and stand to be a growing risk moving forward. The paper also explores the factors that make it particularly difficult and yet necessary for South African producers to adapt to this new genus of regulation.

This report was produced by TIPS for the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition

This TIPS tracker highlights important trends in the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa, and how they affect the economy. It analyses publically available data, research and media reports to identify current developments and reflect on the prognosis for the contagion, the economy, and policy responses.

KEY FINDINGS FOR THE WEEK

On the pandemic

• The number of diagnosed new cases levelled out in Gauteng and Eastern Cape in the past 10 days and continued to decline gradually in the Western Cape. As a result, the number of active cases reported declined in the past week for the first time, despite escalating growth in KwaZulu-Natal and the Free State.
• The reasons for the decline in reported active cases remains unclear, and it may not be sustained. In any case, unless the number of cases starts to fall more rapidly, South Africa will be living with a very high rate of cases per person by international standards for some time. That in turn makes it harder to control transmission generally. Moreover, it means individuals face higher risks than a month ago, especially in Gauteng, the Western Cape, the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal.
• The Medical Research Council has found that the total deaths from natural causes has climbed by over 12 000 above the expected number of deaths at this time of year, even after taking into account reported deaths attributed to COVID-19. This pattern reflects a common experience internationally. It typically arises because more people have died at home during the pandemic either without a COVID-19 diagnosis or because they avoided getting treatment for some other ailment due to fear of contagion.

On the economy

• As in other countries, the sharp increases in reported new cases and lower employment and incomes appear to be weighing down the economic recovery. The available indicators point to a slight fall in household consumption over the past two weeks. In the longer run, the South African Reserve Bank now expects a 7,2% downturn for the year.
• From March to May, consumer prices in South Africa dropped by 1%, and inflation from May 2019 to May 2020 fell to 2%, lower than any time since 2005. But food prices rose 4,5% from March to May, offset mostly by the sharp fall in global oil prices. As a result, the lower-income group, which spends more on food and less on petrol, experienced higher inflation than the richest 10% of households.
• International experience continues to demonstrate that, as in South Africa, economic recovery can be heavily set back by ending restrictions on risky activities before the virus is under control. In this context, the often-cited trade-off between lives and livelihoods turns out to be misleading. The real challenge is to cushion low-income households as far as possible from the economic slowdown.  

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News 24 -  23 July 2020 by Penelope Mashego

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Engineering News -  21 July 2020 by Natasha Odendaal

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