The R500 billion stimulus package announced by President Cyril Ramaphosa on 21 April 2020 is almost certainly cheaper than not acting. While stimulus packages are complex to manage, the complexities of managing a messy set of rolling closures as a result of a crisis like COVID-19 would be worse. Experiences from…

South Africa has adopted a phased approach to reopening the economy. The relaxation of restrictions on economic activity will depend on the extent to which the contagion is controlled and the health sector prepared to deal with a surge. In that context, the specific regulations for the economy are still…

This brief argues that government needs a large response to the COVID-19 crisis, with a package that approaches R1 trillion. A stimulus that large cannot be financed using the conventional mechanisms. Instead, government must use quantitative easing, both to offset the collapse in demand and to finance government expenditure. Interest…

From 2 May to 5 May, the Western Cape accounted for three quarters of new COVID-19 cases in South Africa, although it makes up only a seventh of the population. On 5 May, the incidence of COVID-19 in the Western Cape was 52.4 per 100 000 population, compared to 7.6…

Both South Africa and the world face an economic crash as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The downturn, which threatens to rival the Great Depression, results from the need to take extraordinary efforts to limit the contagion. Internationally, the consequence has been plummeting demand, especially in the global North,…

South Africa’s economy was already weak at the start of 2020, coming from a technical recession and the forecasted low growth. The decision to lock down the country as part of the COVID-19 response to protect the health of the South African population has put further pressure on the steel…

This policy brief aims to support the South African Presidency and Department of Trade, Industry and Competition (the dtic) in their deliberations on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the South African automotive industry. It has been compiled from secondary readings, the author’s own industry knowledge, two CEO interviews…

This policy brief identifies the benefits of implementing a comprehensive credit guarantee scheme that would move the needle in small business support and improve liquidity. Three possible measures that could be used are proposed: a credit card that is guaranteed by the government; a guarantee for trade credit providers; and…

The economic effects of Moody’s recent credit ratings downgrade have been overtaken by the whirlwind effects of the COVID-19 crisis. It is, however, also important to understand the likely effects of the downgrade, which vary for different sectors and stakeholders,  to ensure a reasoned response. This policy brief looks at…

The South African economy is affected by the COVID-19 pandemic through: The sharp fall in growth initially in China and then in Europe and the US as a result of measures to contain the virus; and The increasing pressure to exercise social distance and lock down households and businesses to…