SUMMARY: The study analyses the employment impacts of different plans for expanding electricity generation in South Africa’s power sector. The report assesses the skill attainment levels required for energy transition, and the potential for workers to transfer from the coal sector to the emerging renewable energy sector. Four scenarios, which consider two timelines, are presented. The short-term 2030 timeline is based on the expected electricity generation mix to meet the rising demand in the country and which is aligned with the National Development Plan 2030. The long-term timeline is based on electricity generation mix predicted to meet the projected growth in energy demand up to 2050, and considers the predicted decommissioning timeline of coal power plants.
KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: The study finds among other things that increasing the share of renewables can raise employment by 40 % (580 000 job years) in the period 2018 to 2030; with the shift from IRP 2016 to IRP 2018 an additional 1.3 million jobs are created economy-wide by 2050, 17% in the power sector by 2050; most job creation in renewable power generation is within the high-skilled labour group (educational attainment level above Grade-12), although employment is also created in other skill groups; and declining global demand for coal is the largest impact factor for coal mining employment.