In this edition

GDP growth: The non-agricultural GDP grew by 0.2% in the last quarter of 2024. Every sector shrank, however, except business services, trade and agriculture. The slowdown in the past two years is associated with a sharp fall in world mining prices, affecting South Africa’s main exports. Surprising growth in agricultural value add pushed total GDP growth up to 0.6% for the quarter and for 2024 as a whole. Within manufacturing, results varied substantially by industry. Read more.

Employment: Total employment increased by 2.1% in the year to the fourth quarter of 2024, much faster than GDP growth. Unusually large gains were reported for informal employment in particular. The official employment survey also found that manufacturing employment expanded more than 10% during the year, although it remains lower than before the 2020 COVID-19 downturn. Read more.

Infrastructure: Grid electricity dropped sharply in the final quarter of 2024. Although loadshedding returned in early 2025, it remained far lower than in 2023. That outcome likely reflected both continued growth in off-grid energy, mostly solar, combined with shrinking effective demand as Eskom tariff increases accelerated. Rail freight tonnage remained almost unchanged in the two years to December 2024, while road freight fell over 10%, reflecting slow economic growth. Read more.

International trade: In the last quarter of 2024, exports increased slightly, but they remained lower than a year earlier. Outside of gold and chromium, most of mining saw lower prices in the past year. Imports fell more sharply than exports, largely as a result of lower petroleum prices. In manufacturing, exports shrank, with lower mining prices cutting the value of metals exports. Auto and machinery sales also fell for the year as a whole, although auto saw some recovery in the final quarter of 2024. Imports of machinery and autos declined, presumably as a consequence of slow GDP growth and persistent high interest rates. Read more.

Investment and profitability: A 6% fall in public-sector investment drove a 1% drop in total investment in the fourth quarter of 2024. Private investment, however, increased by 1% from the third to the fourth quarter of the year, although it remained well below pre-pandemic levels. The investment rate dropped to 14.1% at the end of 2024, a level last seen in mid-2022 as the economy recovered from the pandemic downturn. Read more.

Foreign direct investment projects: The TIPS Foreign Direct Investment Tracker monitors FDI projects quarterly, using published investment information. In the fourth quarter of 2024, it added 27 projects, mostly in the electricity sector. Of the new projects, 21 announced the value of the investment, totalling R56.7 billion. The Tracker also updated information on 16 pre-existing projects. Read more.

Briefing Note 1: South Africa and the G20 Presidency - by Faizel Ismail and Saul Levin. South Africa has assumed the Presidency of the G20. President Cyril Ramaphosa has made it clear that he will stand for the interests of the African continent as a priority in South Africa’s G20 leadership. He will strive to build the solidarity of the Global South. In addition he will to build convergence with the G20’s richer Northern economies and powers, based on the principles of multilateralism, equity, social justice, respect for diversity and development. President Ramaphosa will be conscious of the fact that this is the first G20 to be held on African soil, and the first G20 for the African Union and for the African continent to be full participants. Read the Briefing Note online: South Africa and the G20 Presidency.

Briefing Note 2: Options for localising steel inputs from the infrastructure build programme - by Neva Makgetla. The government has sought a rigorous redirection of its spending towards physical public infrastructure projects. It aims to both improve services for business and to stimulate local input manufacturers, especially in the steel value chain. Yet the last major build programme, 10 years ago, fell short on both counts. Moreover, localisation policies now face a radically changed legal environment. To help understand the evolving context for localisation. a new report by TIPS assesses the impact of localisation policies in the last major build programme; the new legal framework; and the costs, benefits and risks of leading options to support industrialisation through local procurement. This briefing note summarises findings on the new legal environment. Read the Briefing Note online: Options for localising steel inputs for the infrastructure build programme.