Export Tracker - Q4 2022

In the fourth quarter of 2022, merchandise exports experienced a decline of 4.6% year-on-year, amounting to R478 billion. This presents the largest decline in exports in the past two years, following the large contraction in Q2 2020 due to COVID-19. From the third quarter of 2022, exports declined by 12.6%. This poor export performance was driven by a decrease in the value and volume of mining exports. The value of mining exports has declined due to the fall in commodity prices, particularly iron ore, and platinum. Iron ore prices have declined by 11.2% since the fourth quarter of 2021, while platinum prices declined by 9.6% over the same period. Coal prices, in contrast, proved to be resilient during that period, increasing by 20.6%. However, they began to fall in the third quarter of 2022, mainly due to increased supply. In addition, the volume of mining exports was negatively affected by the October 2022 industrial strike at Transnet that hampered rail freight and port operations.