Janet Wilhelm
International Trade and Inclusive Industrialisation
AGENDA
10:00 - 10:15 Arrival and coffee / tea
10:15 - 10:30 Opening and welcome by Chairperson: Xolelwa Mlumbi
10:30 - 12:00 Presentations:
Neva Makgetla: South Africa's exports and inclusive industrialisation
Faizel Ismail: A 'Developmental Regionalism' approach to the AfCFTA
Christopher Wood: Tracking imports, trends and anomalies
12:00 - 12:45 Discussion
12:45 Lunch
BACKGROUND
Exports are often seen as a necessary feature for industrialisation. Looking at the basket of South Africa's exported products, is there an opportunity in expanding or shifting exports to improve the industrial capacity of the country? How does the region feature within South Africa's exports? Expanding exports to neighbouring countries without comparable imports have seen significant trade imbalances. Will the African Continental Free Trade Agreement result in improved exports and imports, and ultimately support an industrialisation strategy for African economies? This Development Dialogue aims to discuss some of these challenges.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Xolelwa Mlumbi is the Deputy Director-General responsible for the International Trade and Economic Development (ITED) division at the Department of Trade and Industry.
Neva Makgetla is a senior economist at TIPS. Makgetla has published widely on the South African economy and worked for many years in government, most recently as Deputy Director General for Policy in the Economics Development Department, as well as in COSATU.
Dr Faizel Ismail is an Adjunct Professor at the UCT School of Economics and a TIPS Research Associate. He has previously been an advisor to the dti on International Trade and Special Envoy on the African Growth and Opportunity Act and served as the Ambassador Permanent Representative of South Africa to the WTO (2010-2014).
Christopher Wood is an economist at TIPS focusing on trade and industry policy. He set up the TIPS import tracker, which monitors the trends, spikes and highest imports. Chris previously worked as a researcher in economic diplomacy at the South African Institute of International Affairs.
The TIPS Forum 2019 will be held in Johannesburg on 30-31 May 2019. The theme is Innovation and Industrialisation. Those wishing to contribute papers are invited to submit their title and abstracts of up to 500 words. Deadline for submissions is 1 March 2019. For more information go to forum.tips.org.za
Annual Forum 2019 - Innovation and industrialisation
Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) In partnership with the DST/NRF South African Research Chair in Industrial Development (SARChI Industrial Development) based at the University of Johannesburg, the Technology Innovation Agency (TIA), Department of Science and Technology (DST), and the Department of Trade and Industry (the dti) will be hosting its 2019 Annual Forum on 30-31 May 2019. The theme is Innovation and Industrialisation.
Aim of the conference
The aim is to deepen the understanding of a cross section of issues involved in how innovation is a key feature of industrialisation and the related opportunities and challenges.
The context for the conference
Innovation is an essential element for economic growth and technological upgrading is a key aspect of industrialisation. Despite increased public funds injected into science, technology and innovation (STI) as well as a series of policies designed to encourage innovation, South Africa’s innovation activities appear to be constrained. What then is South Africa’s ability to adapt and respond to technological change and especially discontinuous technological change?
The Industrial Policy Action Plan (IPAP) recognises the importance of innovation for industrialisation. Each year, the state contributes significant resources as well as a having a range of support measures and institutions. The CSIR, TIA, DST, the dti, public research organisations, universities and other institutions provide funding and / or contribute in other ways to facilitate innovation.
In South Africa and the region there is an urgent need to promote industrialisation as a means to achieve socio-economic development and move towards greater levels of equality and a pro-employment development path. How does innovation support a path towards more inclusive forms of industrialisation? Developing strategic and coherent approaches that maximise the impact of state resources and leverage private sector resources requires significant further research and analysis.
Furthermore, sustainability challenges in South Africa and in the Southern African region requires significant innovation support to address the transition, adaptation and mitigation of climate change. There are also opportunities in innovation linked to green industries that could potentially support this transition. Nevertheless, despite the imperatives of transforming to a low-carbon economy to address climate change, the transition pathway should be just so as not to exacerbate South Africa’s triple challenges of poverty, inequality and unemployment.
The challenges of the Forth Industrial Revolution or Industry 4.0 revolve around technology, innovation and technological change. How do we understand these concepts and their applicability to South Africa and Africa more broadly?
Understanding the challenges within the support framework and funding for innovation and its alignment with industrialisation efforts as well as the impact of innovation on jobs is needed. Additionally, the social implications of disruptive technologies are becoming more appreciated.
The 2019 Forum will explore these issues and bring together academics, policy makers, as well as organisations and practitioners involved in the various aspects of innovation for industrialisation. The aim is to deepen the understanding of a cross section of issues involved in how innovation is a key feature of industrialisation and the related opportunities and challenges.
For more information about the Forum go to forum.tips.org.za
Eskom is bullying the state, media and citizens to get funding
Business Day - 18 December 2018 by Neva Makgetla (TIPS Senior Economist)
Read online at Business Day.
Or read as a PDF.
Pay gap the result of unfair education system
Business Day - 4 December 2018 by Neva Makgetla (TIPS Senior Economist)
Read online at Business Day.
Or read as a PDF.
GEC Global Meeting 8-9 January 2019: Agenda
How does everyone get a stake in the transition?
We know that the green economic transition is necessary, urgent, and already underway. But we need to ensure that the new green economy improves the lives of ordinary people everywhere - and our meeting will focus on how we can help to make the economies of the future equitable, inclusive, and people-focused.
This year marks a milestone in our evolution as a network. With 7 country programmes now up and running around the world, our partner organisations will be sharing their stories from the frontlines of the green economic transition: evidence of real and positive improvements, with the potential to achieve scale across nations, and change lives.
Co-hosted with our South African partners, The African Centre and Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS), we will be taking stock of the global transition and planning our next steps together as the largest civil society movement for fair, green economies. For a copy of the two day agenda, download attachment or read online.
This year we also hold our meeting back to back with the UN-PAGE Ministerial meeting, on 6 – 7th September, South Africa. If you are interested in attending the PAGE Ministerial, please make sure you have registered for passes here.
Useful contacts:
catriona.mclean@greeneconomycoalition.org
stuart.worsley@greeneconomycoalition.org
Venue: Hilton Cape Town City Centre 126 Buitengracht St, Cape Town, 8001 Tel: +27-21-4813700
In addition to the Hilton, we can recommend the following hotels, within easy reach of the venue: #GetAStake; Holiday Inn Express; Marriott Protea Fire & Ice
Follow the build-up on social media: @GECoalition | #GetAStake
Download conference materials here.
Green Economy Coalition policy dialogues are funded in #GetAStake
collaboration with the European Union (DCI-ENV/2016/372-847)
The Real Economy Bulletin - Third Quarter 2018
Main Bulletin: The Real Economy Bulletin - Third Quarter 2018
In this edition
GDP growth: South Africa’s third quarter GDP grew by an estimated 0.6% in the second quarter of 2018, reversing the contraction experienced in the first and second quarter of the year. Significant differences emerged between sectors, however, with growth in agriculture and manufacturing offset by declines in mining and construction. Read more.
Employment: Total employment reportedly increased by 190 000 or 1.3% from the third quarter of 2017 to the third quarter of 2018, despite the erratic growth in the GDP. Still, manufacturing lost over 20 000 jobs in the year, continuing a trend of stagnant employment since the 2008/9 global financial crisis. In contrast, construction reportedly gained 140 000 jobs over the year, despite the continued decline in its output. Most other new jobs emerged in business and social services. Read more.
International trade: Both exports and imports surged from the third quarter of 2017 to the third quarter of 2018 in rand terms, largely reflecting the stronger US dollar and, in the case of imports, the increase in the global oil price. As a result of these factors, the trade surplus fell sharply. Read more.
Investment and profitability: In the year to the third quarter 2018, both private investment and general government investment remained essentially flat. State-Owned Corporation (SOC) investment, however, fell by 1.1%, with a decline of 3.5% in the third quarter alone. Read more.
Foreign direct investment projects: Eleven projects were added to the TIPS Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Tracker, while five existing projects had major updates. The total value of announced investments this quarter was R47.7 billion, over twice as high as the total for the first half of the year. Read more.
Briefing note: Investment Conference 2018 - Evaluating the pledges: The South Africa Investment Conference 2018, held between the 26th and 27th of October, was headlined by the announcement of R290 billion in new pledged investment. Achieving that target would contribute almost a third to President Cyril Ramaphosa’s five-year US$100 billion target for new investment. Understanding what lies behind this figure is, however, more of a challenge. Read the briefing note online: Evaluating the pledges.
Briefing note: Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) - Implications for industrial development: In the 2018/19 financial year, the South African state plans R1.67 trillion in expenditure. Of this, R200 billion (or 12%) of the budget is earmarked for supporting economic development. Of this, the lion’s share goes for infrastructure, mostly transport, with the rest supporting industrialisation and exports, agriculture and rural development, job creation and labour affairs, innovation, science and technology.Read the briefing note online: Medium Term Budget Policy Statement Implications for industrial development.
Briefing note: The Job Summit and inclusive industrialisation: The Presidential Job Summit, which took place under the auspices of NEDLAC on 4 October 2018, included several initiatives that potentially have substantial implications for inclusive industrialisation and potential for much-needed job creation in South Africa. Read the briefing note online: Job Summit and inclusive industrialisation.
Import Tracker - Q3 2018
Quarter 3 2018 saw a continued narrowing of the trade balance, with a very slim surplus of 0,3%. Year-on-year import growth of 12,8% was more than double export growth of 6% over the same period.
Exports were buoyed by strong growth by the automotive sector, and iron and steel; as well as by a mild recovery in commodity prices for gold and platinum.
Working paper: A developmental regionalism approach to the AfCFTA
This paper argues that adopting a “developmental regionalism” approach to trade integration provides the best prospects for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to catalyse the process of transformative industrial development, cross-border investment and democracy, governance, peace and security in Africa. It also looks at the progress being made by African countries and the continent in implementing each of the four pillars of this approach.
This paper was written in celebration of the significant contribution to African integration made by Chief Olu Akinkugbe.
Dr Faizel Ismail also presented the Keynote Address at the Olu Akinkugbe Business Law In Africa Fellowship Conference held at the Lagos Business School on 28 November 2018.