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This TIPS tracker highlights important trends in the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa, and how they affect the economy. It analyses publically available data, research and media reports to identify current developments and reflect on the prognosis for the contagion, the economy, and policy responses.

KEY FINDINGS FOR THE WEEK

On the pandemic

• The rate of growth in cases surged in KwaZulu Natal and Gauteng, although it slowed in the Western Cape. If the rate of growth outside of the Western Cape is not contained, the number of cases there will double in two weeks – about a week sooner than if the rate of growth had remained the same as last week.
• Government’s decision to define Level 3 as opening most of the economy plus churches and schools represented a fundamental shift in approach and responsibility. It required individuals and groups to manage risk rather than adhering to regulations banning hazardous activities. To succeed, this strategy must combine measures to ensure that people have the information and resources they need for sound decision-making with stringent and swift management of outbreaks. Government did not, however, move to substantially scale-up programmes and expertise to help individuals understand risks and change their behaviour. Nonetheless, it appeared increasingly willing to permit even highly risky activities to reopen in the near future.
• New studies suggested that COVID-19 is disproportionately spread through a few super-spreading events, typically when large numbers are in fairly crowded spaces for a significant period. By extension, the biggest risks under Level 3 arise from public transport, mines, churches, and spaces where significant groups meet at work, including during breaks.

On the economy

• Under Level 3, which starts on 1 June, all businesses except for personal services, recreation and sit-down restaurants will be permitted to reopen. That means that around 90% of workers could return to work, although employers must still have people work from home when possible.
• The third week of Level 4 showed only a limited increase in economic activity but a surge in work-related hotspots, notably in the mines but also in health and the police as well as some retail chains and factories. Most industries did not, however, appear to have a defined structure to identify and mitigate risk factors as they emerged.
• Significant differences emerged in the effectiveness of the various funds established to support workers, businesses and households during the lockdown. The programmes that built on existing programmes have disbursed billions of funds. In contrast, when disbursements required new systems to identify and appraise applicants, relatively few applicants have received any support.

Download a copy or read the Tracker online

Download a copy or read the Tracker online.

This TIPS tracker highlights important trends in the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa, and how they affect the economy. It analyses publically available data, research and media reports to identify current developments and reflect on the prognosis for the contagion, the economy, and policy responses.

KEY FINDINGS FOR THE WEEK

On the pandemic

• The number of new cases stabilised outside of the Western Cape, where they continued to escalate, and the Eastern Cape, where they fluctuate significantly over time. The average daily growth in identified cases declined in the most affected provinces (Western Cape, Gauteng, KwaZulu Natal and the Eastern Cape), but increased sharply in Limpopo as three major mines reported outbreaks.
• The Western Cape effectively faced a qualitatively different pandemic from the rest of South Africa, with 200 cases per 100 000 people compared to 13 per 100 000 in the rest of the country. The reasons included how the province managed screening and quarantine; relatively dense informal settlements with largely shared facilities; and its role as a global tourism hub.
• The main epidemiological model projects a spike in winter but indicates that it can be avoided if South Africans work to prevent infections through changes in behaviour, including
  reorganising work and public transport, and stringent public health measures.

On the economy

• On Sunday, 24 May, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced that all businesses could open except for recreational and personal services, as long as they had plans to maintain physical distancing. He did not, however, indicate how rigorous physical distancing measures would be, including in the high-risk areas of public transport and retail.
• The economic boost from the move to Level 4 largely ran out of steam, with only limited increases in economic activity in the second week. On Wednesday, the SARB predicted a 7% fall in the GDP for the year, down from its April forecast of a 6,1% decline.
• At the company level, four large mines closed temporarily due to outbreaks after resuming work under Level 4; a number of SOCs fell deeper into crisis; and the R500-million fund for small business was fully allocated by Friday, providing funds to around 5% of the applicants.
• The UIF had provided R14 billion to benefit 2,5 million furloughed workers. By the end of the week only 10 people had received the COVID-19 special grant (worth R350 a month), with another 100 000 applications finalised. All told, 4,5 million had applied and 2,6 million had been verified.

Download a copy or read the Tracker online.

TIPS Tracker on the economy and the pandemic highlights important trends in the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa, and how they affect the economy. This issue also looks at the challenges facing the auto and music industries. See 21 September - 4 October 2020.

This TIPS tracker highlights important trends in the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa, and how they affect the economy. It analyses publically available data, research and media reports to Identify current developments and reflect on the prognosis for the contagion, the economy, and policy responses.

Download copy or read Tracker online.