South Africa had a R21.7 billion trade surplus in the fourth quarter of 2023, up from R7.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022, but lower than the R41 billion registered in the third quarter of 2023. Imports declined by R17 billion to R498 billion in the year to the fourth quarter of 2023, while exports declined by 0.5% to R519 billion in same period. This was in part due to a R22 billion fall in coal exports in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Although declining slightly compared to the third quarter of 2020, South Africa maintained a high trade surplus in the fourth quarter of 2020, at R103 billion. Year-on-year, this marks a more than 300% increase in the trade surplus compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. The surplus is the result of low imports and high exports (Graph 1). This has been the case over the last three quarters in particular as South Africa and its trade partners continue to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic that began in January 2020.
South Africa’s merchandise export performance bounced back in the third quarter of 2020, growing by 9.2% (year-on-year) and 40.2% from the previous quarter amounting to R388 billion, an impressive improvement from the historic slump experienced in the second quarter of 2020 as a result of the lockdown. The third quarter of 2020 saw the pace of decline in imports moderating to 19.6%, compared to the 26% decline in Q2 2020 (year-on-year), in constant rand terms. In US dollar terms, merchandise exports experienced a marginal decrease of 2.4% in Q3 2020 to US$22.9 billion, while imports dropped by 28.2% to US$16.4 billion from Q3 2019. South Africa continued on a positive trade balance, recording a sixth straight quarter surplus of R109 billion (US$6.5 billion) in the third quarter of 2020, the highest recorded over the observed period. This record trade surplus is mainly due to the impressive rebound in export demand as most economies reopened in the third quarter of 2020, easing restrictions on business activities, with imports still declining although at a slower pace.
South Africa had a trade surplus of R109 billion in the third quarter of 2020, up from R6 billion in the third quarter of 2019. In constant 2020 Rand, this is the highest trade surplus South Africa has had in the past decade. The high surplus appears to be the result of low imports due to lower crude oil imports, as well as the increased spread of COVID-19 pandemic among major trade partners like Germany and the United State, while exports surpassed pre-COVID-19 levels due to high exports to China and the US. In the year to the third quarter of 2020, exports grew by 10% to R388 billion, from R353 billion in the third quarter of 2019. However, between the third quarter of 2010 and the third quarter of 2020, exports grew by 49%. In contrast, imports declined by 20% to R278 billion in the year to the third quarter of 2020, and grew just 8% between the third quarter of 2010 and the third quarter of 2020.
See Imports localisation and supply chain disruption study - Third Quarter 2020
This report presents investment projects captured in Q1 and Q2 of 2020. Q1 and Q2 have been combined mainly because of the low number of investment projects announced in Q1 2020, combined with general delays in the release of certain data, such as those which inform the investment environment analysis. This was anticipated when investment globally was impacted by the slowdown in economic activity as strict measures were implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. A total of 35 projects were recorded over the two quarters, with 27 projects identified in Q1, and eight projects in Q2. Over half the number of investments captured over the two quarters were by three companies. The total pledged investment value is R43.8 billion from 30 projects. Tracking further captured 3 320 job opportunities from eight projects, seven of which are by one company representing 3 300 jobs. These jobs are likely a mix of permanent and temporary opportunities as the company did not explicitly distinguish jobs by this segmentation. In this period seven projects were upgraded.
The second quarter of 2020 saw a strong decline in exports, combined with an even stronger slump in imports as international trade slowed down because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Several sectors, however, particularly agriculture and parts of mining, were able to increase exports over the quarter. Stringent COVID-19 containment measures implemented in most countries led to the plummeting of merchandise trade, with the “Great Lockdown” seeing South Africa through a five-week, hard nationwide lockdown in the second quarter of 2020. Exports dropped by 32.5% in US dollar terms, while imports plunged to US$14 billion in the second quarter of 2020, down by 39.2% from the same period last year. However, because of the depreciation of the rand, the decline in both exports and imports in rand terms was a little lower compared to the decline in dollar terms – with rand exports down by 17.6%, and imports by 25.9%.
Media Release: Growth in SA exports to China
This TIPS tracker highlights important trends in the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa, and how they affect the economy. It analyses publically available data, research and media reports to identify current developments and reflect on the prognosis for the contagion, the economy, and policy responses.
Since the pandemic and the economy have stabilised, this will be the last Tracker. TIPS will continue to publish periodic in-depth analyses of developments and debates around recovery and reconstruction. Our quarterly Real Economy Bulletin will also include a section on the impact of the pandemic on the economy.
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This TIPS tracker highlights important trends in the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa, and how they affect the economy. It analyses publically available data, research and media reports to identify current developments and reflect on the prognosis for the contagion, the economy, and policy responses.
Over the next few months, the Tracker will explore the challenges facing different industries, looking in this issue at autos and music.
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South Africa had a trade surplus of R30 billion in the second quarter of 2020, up from R4 billion in the second quarter of 2019. Generally, South African trade performs better in the second quarter of the year, compared to the first quarter. With the exception of 2012 to 2014, there has been a trade surplus every year in the second quarter for the past decade.
See Imports localisation and supply chain disruption study - Second Quarter 2020
This TIPS tracker highlights important trends in the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa, and how they affect the economy. It analyses publically available data, research and media reports to identify current developments and reflect on the prognosis for the contagion, the economy, and policy responses.
Over the next few months, the Tracker will explore the challenges facing different industries, starting in this issue with steel and tourism.
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This TIPS tracker highlights important trends in the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa, and how they affect the economy. It analyses publically available data, research and media reports to identify current developments and reflect on the prognosis for the contagion, the economy, and policy responses.
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This TIPS tracker highlights important trends in the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa, and how they affect the economy. It analyses publically available data, research and media reports to identify current developments and reflect on the prognosis for the contagion, the economy, and policy responses.
KEY FINDINGS FOR THE WEEK
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This TIPS tracker highlights important trends in the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa, and how they affect the economy. It analyses publically available data, research and media reports to identify current developments and reflect on the prognosis for the contagion, the economy, and policy responses.
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This TIPS tracker highlights important trends in the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa, and how they affect the economy. It analyses publically available data, research and media reports to identify current developments and reflect on the prognosis for the contagion, the economy, and policy responses.
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In the first quarter of 2020, which represents the period before widespread global lockdowns were implemented due to the COVID-19 crisis, South Africa continued with a positive trade balance. A trade surplus of R34.7 billion in constant rand was recorded in Q1 2020, up by 42% from the previous quarter. The increase in the trade balance is attributed to exports having declined at a much lower rate than imports as an initial response to the COVID-19 economic impact, as well as a decline in imports due to the earlier shut down in China and a significant drop in the value of crude oil imports of about R10.5 billion.
This TIPS tracker highlights important trends in the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa, and how they affect the economy. It analyses publically available data, research and media reports to identify current developments and reflect on the prognosis for the contagion, the economy, and policy responses.
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A larger number of projects were captured in the FDI Tracker for the final quarter of 2019 due to the President’s Investment Conference held in November 2019. A total of 31 projects were captured, consisting of a mix of projects announced at the conference and those announced or taking place before the conference. Based on these developments, the fourth quarter of 2019 recorded the highest number of projects and the highest pledged investment value for 2019, with a total pledged investment value of R68.6 billion from 27 projects.
This TIPS tracker highlights important trends in the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa, and how they affect the economy. It analyses publically available data, research and media reports to identify current developments and reflect on the prognosis for the contagion, the economy, and policy responses.
KEY FINDINGS FOR THE WEEK
On the pandemic
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This TIPS tracker highlights important trends in the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa, and how they affect the economy. It analyses publically available data, research and media reports to identify current developments and reflect on the prognosis for the contagion, the economy, and policy responses.
KEY FINDINGS FOR THE WEEK
On the pandemic
On the economy
Download a copy or read the Tracker online
This TIPS tracker highlights important trends in the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa, and how they affect the economy. It analyses publically available data, research and media reports to identify current developments and reflect on the prognosis for the contagion, the economy, and policy responses.
KEY FINDINGS FOR THE WEEK
On the economy
Download a copy or read the Tracker online