Business Day - 31 January 2017 by Neva Makgetla (TIPS Senior Economist)

Read on Business Day here, or read online here.

Baba-Tamana Gqubule: Baba has a Masters in Development Studies from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London and a Bachelor of Economics Honours degree from Rhodes University. She has experience as a Policy Analyst at the Economic Development Department.
 
Xhanti Payi: Xhanti has worked as an analyst at Investec Wealth & Investment, an Economist at Stanlib Asset Managers and was a Country Risk Manager at Standard Bank (CIB). Payi studied at UCT and the University of London. Currently, Payi is the MD at Nascence Advisory & Research, a strategy consulting and research outfit.

Christopher Wood: Chris is a TIPS economist focusing on trade and industry policy. He previously worked as a researcher in economic diplomacy at the South African Institute of International Affairs.
 
Kelello Mashiane: Kelello is a researcher at TIPS. She holds a bachelor’s degree from UNISA, and worked as a research assistant at the Economic Development Department, where she worked on several data collection projects and provided research support to the Chief Economist.
 
Moleboheng Ntene: Moleboheng is a Senior Economist at the South African Reserve Bank in the Economic Research and Statistics Department (Balance of Payments division). She is primarily responsible for monitoring financial account flows and conducting other research related to the balance of payments. She has a Masters Degree in Economic Development and Policy Issues from the University of Johannesburg. 

Date: Wednesday 8 February 2017      

Time: 13h30 – 16h00

Venue: TIPS Boardroom, 234 Lange St, Nieuw Muckleneuk, Pretoria

RSVP by email: Daphney@tips.org.za to confirm attendance.

Business Day - 17 January 2017 by Neva Makgetla (TIPS Senior Economist)

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Presentation and Panel Discussion:

Background

The importance of exporting to the US for any developing country cannot be downplayed. Exports to the largest economy in the world along with various support measures has been of cruciall importance to countries such as Japan and South Korea during their industrialisation, more recently for China. The Africa Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA) recognises the potential benefits of the US market and is a mechanism to encourage African economies to export into that market. While AGOA is a unilateral agreement by the US it gives benefits to the recipient countries and also is a means to encourage investment by US firms into Africa. The potential to support industrial development is therefore significant and is part of the motivation to extend AGOA by 10 years. Outside of the oil exporters, South Africa is the largest exporter through AGOA. South Africa exports value added products including automotive components and vehicles through AGOA. The recently adopted AGOA, however, specifically required a review of South Africa, mainly as a result of the requirement for poultry and pork imports from the US into the country. The poultry issue has been resolved and a number of compromises reached. The threat of the provisions of the Act that could exclude South Africa still remain. The benefits of South Africa being part of AGOA are applicable to both South Africa and the US,; it is therefore desirable on the side of both countries to find the compromises that would enable that.

　
The TIPS paper to be presented also forms part of a research project undertaken for NEDLAC.

PRESENTERS:

Faizel Ismail: Dr Faizel Ismail is an Adjunct Professor at the UCT School of Economics and a TIPS Research Associate. He has previously been an advisor to the dti on International Trade and Special Envoy on the African Growth and Opportunity Act and served as the Ambassador Permanent Representative of South Africa to the WTO (2010-2014).

Malose Letsoalo: Malose is the Director of Americas Bilateral Trade Relations in the International Trade and Economic Development Division (ITED) of the Department of Trade and Industry (the dti).

Christopher Wood: Chris is a TIPS economist focusing on trade and industry policy. He previously worked as a researcher in economic diplomacy at the South African Institute of International Affairs.

Tinashe Kapuya: Tinashe is the head of international trade and investment intelligence at the Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz).　

Date:    Tuesday 24 January2017
Time:    13h30 – 16h00
Venue:  TIPS Boardroom, 234 Lange St, Nieuw Muckleneuk, Pretoria 
                                                                                                                                       

RSVP by email: natasha@tips.org.za to confirm attendance.

Business Day - 6 December 2016 by Tamar Kahn

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Business Day - 6 December 2016 by Neva Makgetla (TIPS Senior Economist)

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Tasneem Essop is an independent expert on climate, energy, poverty and social justice issues. She previously worked as Head of Low Carbon Frameworks for the Global Climate and Energy Initiative in WWF International, which included leading a global team of WWF climate experts as head of delegation to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Before joining WWF International she worked for WWF South Africa as an International Climate Advocate. She is also currently serving her second term as a Commissioner in the National Planning Commission of South Africa.

Prior to joining WWF she held the positions of Provincial Minister for the Environment, Planning and Economic Development in Western Cape and, before that, Provincial Minister of Transport, Public Works and Property Management.

Before becoming a Member of the Western Cape Provincial Legislature for the ANC in 1994, she was the Education Officer for the Congress of Trade Unions (COSATU) in the Western Cape and prior to that the Education and Media Officer for the South African Municipal Workers Union (SAMWU).

She is a qualified teacher and taught at Glendale Senior Secondary before joining the trade union movement. 

This policy brief considers the three main options available to South Africa in a post-AGOA trade and investment relationship with the United States: to stay in AGOA, negotiate a Free Trade Agreement, or fall back on Most Favoured Nation terms and the Generalized System of Preferences.

Main bulletin: The Real Economy Bulletin - Third Quarter 2016

In this edition: 

Quarterly GDP growth: South Africa’s third quarter GDP growth, seasonally adjusted but not annualised, fell back to 0,05% compared to the surprisingly strong 0,8% expansion in the second quarter. Mining continued to recover from the sharp drop in the second quarter, growing by 1,4%, while manufacturing gave up the gains it made in the previous quarter. Agriculture lost ground for the seventh quarter in a row. Read more.

Employment: Total employment remained virtually unchanged from the third quarter of 2015 to the third quarter of 2016. But the composition of employment changed. Manufacturing and community services lost around 85 000 jobs each. Business services created around the same number, almost entirely in security and cleaning. CCMA data point to significant retrenchments in the mining value chain over the pat year. Read more.

Trends in trade: In the third quarter of 2016, imports increased in rand terms while exports declined, wiping out the balance of trade surplus experienced in the second quarter of the year. Compared to the previous third quarter, manufacturing imports continued to decline in rand terms while exports stabilised, mostly due to continued growth in foreign auto sales. Read more.

Behind the trends: Slow growth in South Africa mostly reflects the broader global trend since 2011. In the past quarter, the slump in investment deepened. The fiscal consolidation promised by the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) seems likely to add to the downward pressures on the economy. Read more.

Briefing note - The national minimum wage and manufacturing: November 2016 saw the report of the National Minimum Wage Panel, which proposed a minimum wage of R3 500 phased in by mid-2019. This note analyses the implications for the main sectors of the economy and for manufacturing industries based on the available wage-survey data. Read the briefing note online: The national minimum wage and manufacturing. 

Briefing note - Food prices and inflation:  The international Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) found that world food prices declined by 17% in 2015 from the previous year, falling to the lowest level since 2009. This trend contrasts sharply with the situation in South Africa, where food prices have surged from 1994. The recent drought has only aggravated the longer-standing problem. Read the briefing note online: Food prices and inflation.

Business Day - 22 November 2016 by Neva Makgetla (TIPS Senior Economist)

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