The South African Business Cycle over the 1990s: What can we Learn?

This paper was inspired in the first place as the author observed extraordinary resilience in the domestic real economy in the wake of not only the world recessionary conditions of 2000/1 but also the dramatic slide of the currency towards the end of 2001. As possibly the first hard evidence of meaningful (structural) change, this paper may be premature, however, it sets out to study the domestic business cycles of the 1990s and establish in what way has the reintegration of the SA economy into the world economy influenced the business cycle. Running the risk of being premature the paper attempts to derive policy information as well as to provide pointers to what we may expect in the current business cycle.