Although declining slightly compared to the third quarter of 2020, South Africa maintained a high trade surplus in the fourth quarter of 2020, at R103 billion. Year-on-year, this marks a more than 300% increase in the trade surplus compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. The surplus is the result of low imports and high exports (Graph 1). This has been the case over the last three quarters in particular as South Africa and its trade partners continue to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic that began in January 2020.

South Africa had a trade surplus of R109 billion in the third quarter of 2020, up from R6 billion in the third quarter of 2019. In constant 2020 Rand, this is the highest trade surplus South Africa has had in the past decade. The high surplus appears to be the result of low imports due to lower crude oil imports, as well as the increased spread of COVID-19 pandemic among major trade partners like Germany and the United State, while exports surpassed pre-COVID-19 levels due to high exports to China and the US. In the year to the third quarter of 2020, exports grew by 10% to R388 billion, from R353 billion in the third quarter of 2019. However, between the third quarter of 2010 and the third quarter of 2020, exports grew by 49%. In contrast, imports declined by 20% to R278 billion in the year to the third quarter of 2020, and grew just 8% between the third quarter of 2010 and the third quarter of 2020.

See Imports localisation and supply chain disruption study - Third Quarter 2020

South Africa had a trade surplus of R30 billion in the second quarter of 2020, up from R4 billion in the second quarter of 2019. Generally, South African trade performs better in the second quarter of the year, compared to the first quarter. With the exception of 2012 to 2014, there has been a trade surplus every year in the second quarter for the past decade.

See Imports localisation and supply chain disruption study - Second Quarter 2020

South Africa had a trade surplus of R35 billion in the first quarter of 2020, up from a trade deficit of R4 billion in the first quarter of 2019. With the exception of the first quarter of 2017, South Africa has had a trade deficit in the first quarter of each year as far back as 2010. In 2020 constant Rand terms, imports declined by 5% between the first quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2020, but grew by 30% from the first quarter of 2010. In contrast, exports grew by 8% in the year to the first quarter of 2020, and grew by 55% between 2010 and 2020.

See Imports localisation and supply chain disruption study - First Quarter 2020

This fourth quarter report of the Import Tracker is in two sections. The first section focuses on import trends for the fourth quarter of 2019, similar to previous reports. The second section of the report provides a brief review of some of the major trends for 2019. The review focuses on the major imports in both Rand and quantity terms.

The trade balance grew in the second quarter of 2019. As at the end of the quarter, the trade surplus was R3 billion. Generally, the second quarter tends to reflect a trade surplus. With the exception of the second quarters between 2012 and 2014, there has been a second quarter trade surplus since 2010, the highest being R35 billion in the second quarter of 2016. Nevertheless, the year-on-year trade surplus declined by 85%, from R18 billion in the second quarter of 2018 to R3 billion. Further, both imports and exports grew year-on-year, with imports growing by 8%, compared to 2.8% for exports. Crude oil, diesel and automotive components remain the biggest drivers of imports.

The trade balance declined in the first quarter of 2019. At the end of the quarter, the deficit was R0.3 billion. With the exception of the first quarter of 2017, South Africa has seen a trade deficit in the first quarter for the 10 years between 2010 and 2019.

The trade balance declined in the fourth quarter of 2018, however, although it fell there was still a trade surplus. During the same period, imports grew by 7,8% while exports saw a minimal growth of 1,2%.