In this edition

GDP growth: The GDP eked out 0.4% growth in the year to the second quarter of 2024. That comes on top of near-stagnation from early 2023, which was largely a result of falling mining and metals prices combined with difficulties at Eskom and Transnet. Manufacturing value added climbed 1.1% in the quarter, but is still lower than it was two years ago. It is 7% below its pre-pandemic levels. Metals revenues have fallen precipitously since 2022. Read more.

Employment: In the year to the second quarter of 2024, employment reportedly expanded by just over 300 000 or almost 2% – far faster than reported GDP growth. The informal sector saw the most rapid growth, expanding by 3.3% compared to just 1.2% for the formal sector. As a result, the share of adults with paid employment stabilised at 40%, still well below pre-pandemic figures and far lower than the global norm of 60%. Manufacturing employment recovered from steep job losses in mid-2023, gaining 100 000 jobs year on year. Read more.

Infrastructure: From the mid-2010s, both Eskom and Transnet saw lower sales but higher tariffs. In the second quarter of 2024, electricity generation showed significant signs of recovery at both Eskom and private suppliers. Transnet rail and ports, however, declined further. In real terms, both electricity and rail tariffs increased faster than headline inflation. Read more.

International trade: South Africa had a surplus in goods trade in the second quarter of 2024. That continued an almost unbroken string of surpluses since the 2020 pandemic, mostly because slow economic growth has dampened imports while global mining prices, although off their peaks, remain stronger than before the pandemic. Both goods exports and imports were lower than a year earlier, although exports ticked up compared to the previous quarter. Read more.

Investment and profitability: Over the year to the second quarter of 2024, the investment rate fell to 14.6%, down from its post-pandemic peak of 15.3% and well below pre-pandemic levels. Both government and private investment shrank sharply over the year. By type of capital acquired, public works and buildings accounted for most of the decline, while machinery and equipment increased, in part reflecting large-scale investment in renewable electricity. In terms of profitability, manufacturing remained stable but mining and construction experienced a decline. Read more.

Foreign direct investment projects: The TIPS Foreign Direct Investment Tracker monitors FDI projects quarterly, using published. It added 11 projects across four industries – electricity, services, manufacturing and mining – in the second quarter 2024. Less than a handful of projects reported values for their respective investments; the R8.1 billion investment value reported for the quarter comes from only three projects. The Tracker updated progress for 17 projects recorded previously. Read more.

Briefing Note 1: Women's economic access and the limitations of "men in hard hats" industrial policy - by Nokwanda Maseko. Post-apartheid industrial policy has for the most part fallen short of delivering economic inclusion for women, particularly Black women. While there have been some improvements in women’s economic outcomes since 1994 – in part due to policies aimed at redressing broader structural inequality – South African industrial policy has primarily focused on “hard hats” industries built under apartheid. These industries – like automotive manufacturing, petrochemicals and energy – often offer workers  comparatively good economic outcomes in terms of earnings and social protection, but they are dominated by men. Read the Briefing Note online: Women's economic access and the limitations of "men in hard hats" industrial policy.

Briefing Note: SMMEs in the Just Transition - by Elize Hattingh and Michael Hector. Small, Medium, and Micro Enterprises (SMMEs) are widely acknowledged as vital drivers of economic growth and job creation globally. The National Integrated Small Enterprise Development Masterplan indicates that stimulation of the SMME sector can address unemployment – SMMEs are a source for job creation and economic growth and seen in South Africa as an integral part of achieving sustainable development. In addition, SMMEs account for 90% of businesses and provide over 50% of employment opportunities, contributing around 40% to the GDP in emerging economies. However, the potential of SMMEs to drive the Just Transition is underutilised, particularly for marginalised groups that face significant barriers to participation in the green economy. Read the Briefing Note online: SMMEs in the Just Transition.