Most economics curricula deal with macroeconomic tools for studying the economy as a whole and microeconomic tools for studying the behaviour of individual agents or markets. However, practical public and private sector economic analysts often need to focus on the industry/sector or meso level of economic activity. Key sector analysis, sectoral impact studies, partial and general equilibrium trade and industry analysis are frequently conducted both in the public and the private sector.
Input-output (IO) and social accounting matrix (SAM) analysis are used on a regular basis as tools for such meso-level economic enquiry. Researchers use these tools to analyse the impact of policy-related and other changes on the economy. Such tools can also be extended to address broader concerns, such as the impact of policy on the environment or on energy requirements. Economic modelling techniques that capture economy-wide impacts of policy changes are increasingly being used in South Africa's academic, consulting, research and policy environments.
To cater for the rising demand for these techniques, Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) started offering a one week introductory workshop in economy-wide policy impact analysis in 2001. We are pleased to announce that the eighth offering of this popular workshop will be held in Pretoria from 23-27 February, 2009.
The workshop is designed and presented by academics and experts in the field of economy-wide policy modelling. Lectures are used to introduce the theory and to provide insight into the scope of research possible using the particular modelling technique. More importantly, each lecture is followed by hands-on exercises where the theory or model is applied using economic data from South Africa and other Southern African countries. Apart from imparting the practical skills needed to apply the theory, these exercises familiarise participants with key features of economies studied. Participants also present brief group projects using the modelling tools learnt during the workshop.
By the end of the workshop, participants will be equipped with sufficient theoretical and practical skills to engage in impact analysis. The workshop also provides a useful basis for process managers who have to digest such analysis, even though they may not undertake it themselves. It also provides a solid grounding for those who wish to enter into the field of computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling. For these participants, a CGE modelling workshop will be offered at a later stage.
Workshop fees: R10 000 (excluding VAT) for South African and SADC participants, US$1 500 for participants outside SADC. To ensure that the workshop is pitched at the correct level, we invite interested participants to submit short CVs to denves@xtra.co.nz before 9 January 2009. To secure a place upon acceptance, participants will be required to make a non-returnable deposit of R2 000 (US$250 for participants outside SADC) before 1st February 2009. Full payment of workshop fees must be received by 23rd February 2009; a 10% discount will be given should full payment of the fees be received by 10th February 2009.
Further information on registration, accommodation and required preparation can be obtained from the workshop conveners:
Dirk Ernst van Seventer (denves@xtra.co.nz) or Rob Davies rdavies@hsrc.ac.za
What former participants had to say about previous workshops:
"With the help of an input output table, we were able to get a better understanding of the backward and forward linkages in the local Tshwane (Pretoria) context. Keeping the need to create sustainable long-term jobs, we are working on developing the tool to identify BEE and SMME opportunities as well environmental assessment."
André Gouws
Manager: Policy and Information
City of Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality
"The IO/SAM workshop is extremely useful for sectoral policy makers and analysts. It provides a working knowledge of how sectoral policy and project impact analysis can be modelled."
Nimrod Zalk
Chief Director: Industrial Policy
Enterprise and Industry Development Division Department of Trade and Industry
Department of Trade and Industry
"Policy makers, analysts, economists, and senior managers are required to assess the impact of a government policy decision on various aspects of the economy, in the short term and in the long run. This information is used by banks, politicians, institutions of higher learning etc. to forecast such an impact more accurately, instead of thumb sucking. The IO/SAM workshop enables policy analysts, policy makers to advise senior managers and the government on the effect of such a policy. More specifically one is able to see which specific sectors will be more affected by such a policy change. The IO/SAM workshop also provides good grounding for future advanced modelling workshops."
Simangele Sekgobela
Head: Department for Economic Development and Planning
Mpumalanga Provincial Government
“Input-output and SAM modelling are important tools in understanding the structure of the economy, and how certain economic events and/or policies would impact on the economy. These models are highly disaggregated and provide useful insights into the linkages between various industries and institutions within the South African context. The workshop also provides the foundations needed for more sophisticated modelling approaches such as CGE modelling.”
Marna Kearney
Former Director: Economy-wide Policy Modelling
Modelling and Forecasting Unit
National Treasury
Workshop Program
The workshop programme is revised and developed each year to take into account new issues and the interests of participants. The following, based on past workshops is for illustrative purposes.
| Day 1: Input-Output Tables | ||
| 08h30-09h00 | Registration | |
| 09h00-9h30 | Introduction | Why economy-wide policy modelling: the usefulness of Input-Output (IO) & Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) modelling |
| 09h30-10h30 | Lecture: | The structure, construction and interpretation of IO Tables |
| 10h30-11h00 | Tea/Coffee | |
| 11h00-12h00 | Exercises: | Interpreting the IO table to describe the economy |
| 12h00-12h30 | Exercises: | Interpreting the IO table to describe the economy |
| 12h30-13h30 | Lunch | |
| 13h30-15h00 | Exercises: | Using the IO framework for consistency analysis |
| 15h00-15h30 | Tea/Coffee | |
| 15h30-17h00 | Exercises: | Introduction to matrix multiplication using Excel. |
| Day 2: Basic Input-Output multipliers | ||
| 09h00-10h00 | Lecture: | Economic modelling using Input-Output tables: multiplier analysis |
| 10h00-10h30 | Exercises: | Estimating the output and income impact of export growth |
| 10h30-11h00 | Tea/Coffee | |
| 11h00-12h30 | Exercises: | Estimating the output and income impact of export growth |
| 12h30-13h30 | Lunch | |
| 13h30-14h45 | Lecture: | Broadening the scope of IO multiplier analysis |
| 14h45-15h00 | Exercises: | Measuring the employment impact of export growth |
| 15h00-15h30 | Tea/Coffee | |
| 15h30-17h00 | Exercises: | Measuring the environmental impact of export growth |
| Day 3: Price models and supply constrained multipliers | ||
| 09h00-09h30 | Lecture: | Using Input-Output tables to evaluate the economy-wide impact of price changes |
| 09h30-10h30 | Exercises: | Estimating the impact of tax changes/energy price increases on producer and consumer prices |
| 10h30-11h00 | Tea/Coffee | |
| 11h00-12h00 | Lecture: | Using Input-Output tables to examine the impact of supply constraints |
| 12h00-12h30 | Exercises: | Evaluating the economy-wide impact of supply constraints in an industry |
| 12h30-13h30 | Lunch | |
| 13h30-15h00 | Lecture | What are Supply – Use (SU) tables and how do they differ from IO tables |
| 15h00-15h30 | Tea/Coffee | SU table construction and interpretation of entries in the SU table |
| 15h30-16h00 | Lecture | SU tables and multipliers with supply-use tables |
| 16h00-17h00 | Exercises: | Calculating multipliers effects of an increase in exports of a commodity on output and employment of a sector |
| Day 4: SAM basics and multipliers | ||
| 09h00-09h30 | Lecture: | What are Social Accounting Matrices and how do they relate to IO and SU Tables |
| 09h30-10h30 | Exercises: | SAM construction and economic interpretation of SAM entries |
| 10h30-11h00 | Tea/Coffee | |
| 11h00-12h30 | Lecture: | Economic modelling using SAMs: bringing households and government into the analysis |
| 12h30-13h30 | Lunch | |
| 13h30-14h00 | Exercises: | Comparing and contrasting input-output and SAM multipliers |
| 14h00-15h00 | Exercises: | Simulating the impact of export growth on the South African economy |
| 15h00-15h30 | Tea/Coffee | |
| 15h30-17h00 | Project: | Allocation of project to groups & project discussion |
| Day 5: Project presentations and panel discussion on | ||
| 08h00-09h30 | Project: | Project & preparation of presentation |
| 09h30-10h00 | Tea/Coffee | |
| 10h00-12h00 | Project: | Project & preparation of presentation |
| 12h00-12h30 | Lunch | |
| 12h30-14h30 | Project: | Group presentation |
| 14h30-15h00 | Group discussion | Wrap-up session:
|
Reading List
- Miller, R. and Blair, P. (1985) Input-output analysis: Foundations and extensions, Prentice Hall.
- Chapter 2: Foundations of Input Output Analysis
- Chapter 4: Multipliers in the Input-Output Model
- Chapter 9: Selected topics (sections 9.1 – 9.3 & 9.6 only, pp 317 – 327 & 351 - 357)
- Reinert, Kenneth A., and David W. Roland-Holst. (1997) Applied methods for trade policy analysis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
- Chapter 4: Social Accounting matrices
- Sadoulet, Elisabeth and Alain de Janvry. (1995) Quantitative development policy analysis, Johns Hopkins University Press.
- Chapter 10: Input-Output Tables, Social Accounting Matrices and Multipliers
- United Nations. (1999) Handbook of Input-Output Table Compilation and Analysis, Studies in Methods, Handbook of National Accounting, Series F, No 74, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Statistics Division.
- Chapter I: Basic input-output symmetric model
- Chapter XII: Impact analysis