Introduction to Economy-Wide Impact Analysis and Modelling

Economic modelling techniques that capture economy-wide impacts of policy changes are increasingly being used in academic, consulting, research and policy environments. Input-output (IO) and social accounting matrix (SAM) analysis are used on a regular basis to analyse the impact of policy-related and other changes on the economy. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models build on these techniques to allow for a wide range of behavioural responses and interactions. Both these approaches have been extended to address broader concerns, such as the impact of policy on the environment or on energy requirements.

These techniques were once the preserve of a handful of leading theoreticians. The IT revolution has allowed them to become part of the practical economist's everyday toolkit. In 2001 Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) started (co-)presenting introductory workshops to cater for the rising demand for these techniques, since when it has held eight workshops on Economy-Wide Policy Impact Analysis. These have laid the foundation for participation in workshops introducing CGE modelling, of which TIPS has run seven. In addition, TIPS has conducted several advanced modelling workshops. These workshops have contributed to the development of a community of builders and users of economy-wide models in Southern Africa.

In 2010 TIPS will be holding a workshop combining both Economy-Wide Policy Impact Analysis and CGE modelling. The workshop will be structured so that participants can select whether to attend the whole workshop, to complete only that part dealing with Economy-Wide Policy Impact Analysis or, if they have the background, to attend only the latter part dealing with CGE models.

The workshop is designed and presented by academics and experts in the field of economy-wide policy modelling. It integrates theory, real world data, hands-on computer work and real world application.

The applications use materials developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and adapted by the workshop instructors to suit Southern African economies. The models are run in GAMS, a programming language widely used in economy-wide policy modelling, to which participants will be introduced.

The workshop is targeted at those who wish to develop professional expertise in the area, as well as those who need to understand the potential and limitations of the use of these approaches without themselves becoming modellers. As such it should appeal to policy-makers and analystsin both the public and the private sectors, as well as to students and academics.

No previous exposure to the techniques is assumed, although participants without proven knowledge of the techniques covered in part I will not be admitted directly into part II. The techniques covered are numerically oriented and, while only basic mathematical skills are needed, the workshop will not appeal to those who prefer general discussion of issues to focussed analysis and measurement.

Fees for attending Part I are R6,000 and for Part II R14,000. Participants attending the combined course will receive a 10% discount. These fees exclude VAT (where applicable) but include teas and lunches during the workshop and transfers to and from O R Tambo International airport. For participants outside SADC the rates are R7,500 and R17,500 respectively with the same 10% discount applicable. Participants are responsible for their own travel and accommodation costs. TIPS can recommend guest houses to participants, but it will be their responsibility to make bookings.

Applications for participation should be sent to denves@xtra.co.nz and should be accompanied by a completed form (see below) stating background and reason for participation. Places are limited and will be allocated to qualified applicants on a first come first served basis. In the event of the workshop being over subscribed, applicants for the combined course will be given preference.

Applications should be received by February 7, 2010. Successful applicants will be notified and invoiced by February 14, 2010. Payment will be due by February 28, failing which reserved places will be offered to other applicants.

Part I of the course will start at 08.30 on Monday 15 March 2010 and run for three days, ending at 17:00 on Wednesday 17 March. Part II will start at 8.30 on Thursday 18 March and run for 8 days, including Saturday 20 March. It will end at 13.00 on Friday 26 March.