The latest Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) reported that the country lost a total of 355 000 jobs from the last quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2016, for an astonishing 2,2% decline in a single quarter. But the figures seem unreliable, due at least in part to the shift to a new master sample. The data likely reflect an effective correction to overestimates of job creation in the previous four quarters, rather than a sharp contraction in the real world. Year on year, employment reportedly rose by 204 000 or 1,3%, which is essentially in line with previous years and with expected GDP growth.

A new policy brief by Neva Makgetla, TIPS Programme Manager: Trade and Industry, unpacks the figures. While it is likely that employment creation has been affected by the broader economic slowdown, the sharp job losses reported for the first quarter of 2016 seem highly unlikely.

The jobs bloodbath that wasn’t:  What happened to employment in  the first quarter of 2016?

Business Day - 09 May 2016

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Engineering News - 09 May 2016

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TOPIC: PRESENTATION OF THE LATEST QUARTERLY MANUFACTURING BULLETIN

Understanding the trends and views of manufacturing firms contributes to improved implementation of sector strategies and industrial policy. 

The Quarterly Manufacturing Bulletin is an initiative of the Manufacturing Circle that provides current views of manufacturing firms and an analysis of trends in the South African manufacturing sector. The focus of this development dialogue will be to present the findings of the survey covering the first quarter of 2016 and have a discussion around strategies to support the manufacturing sector in ways that support employment and equitable economic growth.

This edition of the Monitor focuses on the Employment Problem in South Africa

Aquaculture is the fastest growing food producing sector in the world, and although abalone contributes a relatively small proportion to aquaculture, it is one of the most highly prized seafood delicacies and most sought-after invertebrate. With high returns, farmed, fished or ranched abalone is able to generate foreign currency earnings for the aquaculture industry. In addition, farming uplifts communities along the coastal lines through generating higher levels of employment relative to other aquaculture activities. This is particularly so, in areas where fishing has diminished or has been totally discontinued. This policy brief looks at some of the factors for the industry to remain sustainable and economically viable. 

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF revised downward its growth forecast for most countries and for the world as a whole. This note briefly reviews some of the key revisions. 

Faizel Ismail has a PhD (Manchester, UK), MPhil (IDS, Sussex, UK), LLB (UKZN-Pietermaritzburg) and a BA (UKZN-Pietermaritzburg). His PhD for which he obtained an A grade pass is titled: An Empirical Analysis of Apartheid South Africa in the GATT: 1947 to 1994.

Faizel is currently an Adjunct Professor at the UCT School of Economics. He is also an advisor/consultant (part-time) to the Department of Trade and Industry on International Trade and a Special Envoy on the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). He was appointed as the Chairperson of the International Trade and Administration Commission (ITAC) for a three-year term (2015-2018).

He has served as the Ambassador Permanent Representative of South Africa to the WTO (2010-2014). Prior to this he was the Deputy Director General for International Trade and Economic Development (ITED) in the Department of Trade and Industry. As South Africa’s Chief Trade Negotiator, since 1994, he led the new democratic South Africa’s trade negotiations with the European Union (EU), Southern African Development Community (SADC), Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and several other bilateral trading partners including the US, India, and Brazil. He has led South Africa’s negotiations in the WTO from 2002 to 2014.

He has served as the Chair of the WTO Committee on Trade and Development negotiating group (CTDSS) for two years (2004-2006), the Chair of the WTO Committee on Trade and Development (CTD) for one year (2006/7) and the Chair of the WTO Committee on Trade, Debt and Finance (WGTDF) for two years (2012-2014). He has also served as Chair of the Annual Meeting of the International Trade Centre (ITC), Geneva.

He is the author of two books on the WTO: Mainstreaming Development in the WTO. Developing Countries in the Doha Round (2007) and Reforming the World Trade Organization. Developing Countries in the Doha Round (2009). The latter book has been translated into Chinese (2011). He has published over 50 articles, chapters and working papers in international journals and books on economic development and trade and development issues.

Saul has a Masters Degree in Industrial Sociology from the University of Witwatersrand, with his thesis on small business development. He was previously a chief director in the Economic Development Department (EDD) with oversight of the Development Finance Institutions reporting to EDD, including the Industrial Development Corporation and the Small Enterprise Finance Agency. As part of his responsibilities he oversaw the merger of the small business finance entities and ran several projects to support small business development. 

He also worked as the chief of staff for Lindiwe Hendricks, heading her office while she was Minister of Water Affairs and Forestry and when she was Minister of Minerals and Energy. From 2001 to 2005 he worked as an economist in the office of the Deputy Minister of Trade and Industry. Prior to that Levin spent almost five years working in the field of enterprise development, as a project manager for government agency Ntsika (now Small Enterprise Development Agency).

From 2009 to 2011 Levin was as a senior manager at Standard Bank, working as a Business Operations Manager in the Corporate Affairs unit.

Public seminars held during APORDE 2015 

1. AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT AND THE POLITICAL ECONOMY CHALLENGES OF INDUSTRIAL POLICY

Speakers: Christopher Cramer and Mushtaq Khan

Date:     Wednesday 2 September 2015                 

Time:    From 18:30

Venue:  CCRED Seminar Room, 2nd Floor, 5 Sturdee Avenue, Rosebank

Organised by the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development (CCRED)

For more information download African development and the political economy challenges of industrial policy

2. INNOVATION AND INDUSTRIAL POLICY

Speakers: Ha-Joon Chang; Neva Makgetla; Imraan Patel

Date: Thursday 3 September 2015

Time: 09:30 – 13:00 (followed by lunch)

Venue:  Kingdom Caterers, 317 Tram Street, Brooklyn, Pretoria

Organised by the Department of Trade and Industry

For more information download Innovation and industrial policy

3.  MINERAL RESOURCES AND INDUSTRIAL POLICY

Speaker:  Paul Jourdan

Date:     Thursday 3 September 2014                                                                       

Time:    From 18h30

Venue:  IDC Conference Centre; 19 Fredman Drive, Sandton

Co-host:  Industrial Development Corporation (IDC)

For more information download Mineral resources and industrial policy

4. LABOUR AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Speakers:  Ben Fine and Nicolas Pons-Vignon

Date:     Monday 7 September 2015                                                                        

Time:    From 18h30

Venue: SEBS seminar suite, 1st Floor – New Commerce Building, West Campus, Wits University

Co-host: Independent World of Work

For more information download Labour and economic development

5.  CHINA, INDIA AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AFTER THE CRISIS

Speaker:   Jayati Ghosh

Date:  Tuesday 8 September 2015                                                                           

Time:  From 18h00 (refreshments from 17:30)

Venue: C-Ring 315, Auckland Park Kingsway Campus, University of Johannesburg

Co-host: University of Johannesburg, Department of Economics

For more information download China, India and the global economy after the crisis

6. TRANSFER PRICING AND TRADE MISPRICING

Speakers: Jonathan di John, Paul Jourdan and Kathy Nicolaou-Manias

Date: Wednesday 9 September 2015

Time: 09:00 – 12:00 (followed by lunch)

Venue:  Southern Sun Pretoria, corner Steve Biko and Pretorius Street, Arcadia

Co-host: TIPS

For more information download Transfer pricing and trade mispricing

Presentations:

Jonathan Di John: Transfer Pricing in Export Processing Zones

Paul Jourdan: Transfer Pricing in Extractive Industries

Kathy Nicolaou-Manias: Understanding Trade Mispricing in South Africa