Insights into the manufacturing sector: Outcomes of the latest quarterly Manufacturing Bulletin

Estimating disaggregated sector employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg

Repositioning electricity planning at the core: An evaluation of South Africa's Integrated Resource Plan

Gaylor Montmasson-Clair

Background: Energy and electricity issues in particular have recently been high on the South African agenda. Beyond immediate near-term considerations, reviewing the current electricity planning process is both a timely and necessary exercise. This review, based on an internationally-recognised framework developed by the World Resources Institute and Prayas Energy Group, unpacks the key pillars of an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and reviews South Africa's performance. The objective is to provide a comprehensive overview of the key elements of successful electricity planning and to use this framework to reflect on the country's opportunities and challenges for optimal planning and implementation.

TOPIC: Electricity pricing and economic development in South Africa: The real tough choices

Dr Neva Makgetla

Background:  From the 1980s, growth in South Africa has depended in large part on low-cost, coal-fuelled electricity. This trajectory is no longer viable due to the rising costs of both new investment and climate change. TIPS undertook a systematic assessment of options for managing the cost and economic impact of various options for adapting to the new realities of electricity in both the short and long term. 

 

Funder: Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI)

Duration: 2013-2014

Summary

This research project was jointly commissioned by the EDD and the dti. The GGGI was tasked with implementing the project as part of a partnership to support the South African government’s green growth planning efforts. TIPS was the primary research partner and service provider. This project is the result of the collaboration of all of these institutions. The South African government’s Inter-departmental Green Growth Committee, chaired by EDD, served as the project steering committee for this research. A multi-stakeholder Technical Reference Group was also established to offer inputs on various drafts of the report.

Although not directly associated with the transition to a green growth path, recent trends in South Africa’s electricity supply industry, which has been characterised by energy supply problems since a load shedding crisis in 2008 and drastic price increases (i.e. a trebling of the average electricity price from 2009/2010 to 2017/2018), provide an opportunity to investigate the shift to a greener path. Using these developments as an entry point, this paper investigates the impact of electricity price increases on the competitiveness of mining-related companies and the mitigation measures implemented by various firms in the four most important mining value chains in South Africa, namely platinum, gold, iron ore and coal. Particular attention was paid to the role that electricity price increases and energy security concerns have played in fostering investments by mining-related firms in renewable energy and energy efficiency. It represents a condensed version of an earlier report, which was the result of extensive fieldwork and interviews with stakeholders across the selected mining value chains.

For any enquiries related to the report that are relevant to the dti and EDD, please contact Christian Prins, Economist (macro economic policy), EDD, at cprins@economic.gov.za.

The impact of electricity price increases on the competitiveness of selected mining sector and smelting value chains in South Africa

Client: National Economic Development and Labour Council (Nedlac)

Funder: Nedlac Trade and Industry Chamber

Duration: 2014

Summary

Energy, and electricity issues in particular, have been high on the South African agenda since the 2008 crisis, which saw the country’s national power utility Eskom implement rolling load shedding and cut supplies to a number of large customers, such as mines and minerals beneficiation plants. As South Africa experienced in 2014 the most stringent power cuts since 2008, reviewing the current electricity planning process is both a timely and necessary exercise. This review, based on an internationally-recognised framework, unpacks the key pillars of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and reviews South Africa’s performance, with the objective of shedding light on the role and the implications of planning on the country’s electricity supply and pricing. It is the first attempt at applying this international framework to the South African context.

The 10 elements covered are: 1) planning process; 2) plan objectives; 3)  review of previous plans; 4) demand forecast methodology; 5) resource options assessment; 6) policy instruments to achieve objectives; 7) regulatory and institutional frameworks; 8) investment financing; 9) social and environmental considerations; and 10) promotion of innovation and anticipation of emerging challenges. 

Repositioning electricity planning at the core:  An evaluation of South Africa’s Integrated Resource Plan

This presentation will explore the role of Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) in Investment Promotion for South Africa and rest of the world. Recent global trends have indicated a decline in the ratification of new BITs with a number of countries (including South Africa) reviewing and cancelling treaties that have been in place for decades. The most recent termination of a treaty was between South Africa and Germany, which came into effect on 22 October 2014. The presentation will also seek to identify the reasons for these cancellations and consider new developments in investment policy formulation.

The quarterly manufacturing bulletin is an initiative of the Manufacturing Circle. It serves to provide an analysis of trends in the South African manufacturing sector. The focus of this development dialogue will be to present the third quarter manufacturing bulletin with the aim to inform policy and facilitate discussion around strategies to support the manufacturing sector in ways that support mployment and equitable economic growth.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Jamie Simpson is an economic and management consultant with 25 years experience related to port planning, infrastructure investment and city-region economic development. He has extensive experience as a Project Director/Manager leading major projects and working with governments and senior executives on strategic planning, investment plans and economic transformation – in Europe, Asia, Africa and North America. He has provided advisory support on a range of port market studies and due diligence for the leading port operators (HPH, DPW, PSA, APMT, ICTSI, China Merchants) and financial institutions (HSBC, BoC, B&B Infrastructure, JPMorgan, Standard and Chartered) as part of their transaction advice.

Jamie was retained by Hong Kong Government and worked with the Port Development Board (Port Development Council), the public-private partnership that includes the world's leading port operators, logistics and shipping lines, for over 10 years in a lead advisor role on port strategy and investment. He has acted as Lead Advisor to governments/ Regional Development Agencies on linking city-region development strategies to port/logistics development – including Felixstowe, Southampton, Teleport and London Gateway in the UK. He has worked with the World Bank, IFC, Asian Development Bank, UK DFID and the Private Infrastructure Development Group (PIDG). Jamie is the Chairperson of the Expert Evaluation Panel of the Cities Alliance Catalytic Fund – a small grant window aimed at funding innovative ideas and approaches related to urbanisation.

Presentation:

Are Ports Drivers of Sustainable Economic Development? Exploring Linkages between Ports, Growth and Employment

Article Front page of The Mercury and Business Report (20 February, 2015):

Dig-out port: 'Think again'

See research paper for related research on increasing port efficinccy and the important role that ports play in economic development. This falls under the TIPS Small Grant Research Papers initiative and is based on Jack Dryer's work for his masters thesis.

Is Durban's Port Expansion necessary?