Engineering News - 13 June 2022 by Darren Parker 

Read online at Engineering News

The Q3 2021 analysis identified 13 projects with a total pledged investment value of R45.4 billion from nine projects. The Tracker further recorded 8 487 employment opportunities. Most of the jobs (8 000) stem from a single project, De Beers Venetia Underground Project. Progress updates were reported for 10 projects this quarter.

Decarbonisation efforts in South Africa have focused on Eskom electricity generation and Sasol petrochemical production. However, given the absolute CO₂ emissions associated with these operations, as pressure increases to decarbonise all sectors of the economy to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5⁰C by 2050, it will also be necessary for South Africa to decarbonise its transportation sector. This in turn would have an impact on the jobs in the South African liquid fuels value chain. This paper develops an overview of the impact on the jobs in the refining and logistics sectors, due to termination of operations in these sectors for economic and/or decarbonisation reasons. Detailed job data for job numbers and skill levels for different categories of jobs in these sectors are not available in the public domain at this time; however, a study by FTI Consulting, The economic contribution of the downstream oil industry to South Africa in 2019, presents some high-level job data for the Industry. These data have been used in this study.

The research forms part of the Making Sense of Employment in South Africa's Just Energy Transition project. TIPS and WWF South Africa, with the support of GIZ, are implementing an initiative to support policymaking for South Africa's just transition. This focuses on employment and the relevant challenges and opportunities in the country's just energy transition.

Related research

Research report: Exploring alternative options for coal truckers in a biomass supply chain

Policy Brief: Employment metrics in South Africa’s electricity value chain

The Import Localisation and Supply Chain Disruption study is a quarterly report that seeks to identify goods from the list of imports identified in the Import Tracker report that South Africa could possibly viably manufacture. Each quarter focuses on five manufactured items from the list of imports in the corresponding quarter's Import Tracker report. The five products in this report are: 

Product 1: Tricycles, scooters, pedal cars and similar wheeled toys; dolls' carriages; dolls; other toys; reduced-size scale "recreational models, working or not; puzzles of all kinds": other 
Product 2: Electrical machines and apparatus, having individual functions, n.e.s. in chapter 85
Product 3: Television cameras, digital cameras and video camera recorders: other
Product 4: Whiskies in containers holding two litres or less
Product 5: Ammonium dihydrogen orthophosphate, whether or not mixed with diammonium

See: Import Tracker - Third Quarter 2021

This anniversary publication celebrates and reflects on TIPS and its 25-year history. TIPS, like the country, has evolved significantly over the past 25 years. The publication covers the organisation's journey, the people involved over the years, as well as its current role and future challenges, with messages from board members and staff. 
Read online @: https://www.tips.org.za/images/TIPS25web.pdf 
Download a copy @:https://www.tips.org.za/about-tips/history

Regional value chains have gained increasing popularity in promoting sustained market opportunities, job creation, and sustainable development among countries. With the enactment of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement, access to larger economic markets will mean larger economies of scale, development of specialised capabilities, increase in productivity, as well as increased obligational relationships among Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries through regional industrial value chains. This research investigates how South Africa can promote regional value chains in SADC by importing more from its fellow SADC countries.

The analysis investigates the export potential from SADC countries, using the Revealed Trade Advantage (RTA), the Revealed Import Advantage (RMA) and the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) indexes. These indexes will establish which sustained export opportunities (products) are available for SADC countries to export to South Africa, and these opportunities are detailed for each country. The analysis then looks at the regional perspective of these export opportunities from SADC countries, as most lie within the Clothing, Textiles, Footwear and Leather industry. Last, the analysis discusses the existing barriers to trade for SADC countries. The intention is to promote sustained export opportunities with South Africa importing more from SADC countries. The results from this paper can be a starting point for policymakers to think about strategies to enhance utilisation of sustained export opportunities for SADC countries into South Africa.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/IwnhsBi0usY

Background

South Africa has initiated the transition to a more sustainable development pathway that involves moving towards a low-carbon economy. At the same time, South Africa still faces a number of developmental challenges related to poverty, unemployment and inequality, and the climate crisis further threatens vulnerable communities and people. The need for a just transition to a low-carbon economy has emerged as an imperative to ensure the poor and vulnerable are not negatively impacted by the transition and are ideally better off through it.

In Mpumalanga, these challenges are exacerbated by the high reliance on coal-based economic activities, service delivery challenges, and environmental impacts from land, air and water pollution. These challenges have resulted in poor health, death and destruction to people, the communities and the environment. Encouragingly, in the transition process, many solutions are beginning to emerge that can help regions like Mpumalanga pivot towards more sustainable industries.

TIPS, the National Labour and Economic Development Institute (NALEDI), groundWork and Peta Wolpe are engaged as a consortium in a project which aims to facilitate and co-develop a coherent just transition plan for affected communities in Emalahleni and Steve Tshwete in Mpumalanga. In 2021, the consortium produced a documentary to highlight and capture some of the issues, opportunities and challenges that the affected communities in Mpumalanga face as coal is phased out and we enter a new era. The documentary, entitled Voices from under a dark cloud – towards a just transition in the coalfields of South Africa, builds on a series of webinars and local engagements held over the last 18 months to provide a platform for affected communities to have their voices heard.

About the speakers

Joëlle Chesselet has directed, co-directed and produced award-winning documentaries over the past three decades, notably Pluck – a film not just about the chicken, Ochre and Water - Himba chronicles from the Land of Kaoko and This crazy thing called grace: Desmond Tutu and the Truth and Reconciliation Commission. In collaboration with Lloyd Ross, she directed music videos for the SHIFTY record label as well as working on music documentaries, including the award winning The Silver Fez.

André de Ruyter is  the Eskom Holdings Group Chief Executive (GCE). Being a seasoned executive, with a career spanning over 30 years, André has amassed a wealth of experience both locally and internationally in various portfolios in the energy space as well as in other disciplines, including but not limited to: strategic leadership, sales, manufacturing, production, finance, legal and regulation, people management and socio-economic development. He was a member of the Sasol group executive committee from 2009 to 2014, and spent some time in China as President of China Ventures, also leading business turnaround and transformation in Germany. Shortly thereafter, he was appointed as Chief Executive Officer of Nampak in 2014, a position he left when he accepted the Group Chief Executive role at Eskom. André holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) from the Nyenrode Business University in the Netherlands, a Bachelor of Law (LLB) from the University of South Africa (UNISA) as well as a Bachelor of Civil Law and a Bachelor of Arts from the University of Pretoria.

Duduzile (Dudu) Sibiya is the Provincial Climate Change Coordinator at Mpumalanga Department of Agriculture, Rural Development, Land and Environmental Affairs. She is responsible for coordinating and spearheading climate change and just transition Initiatives and interventions. She promotes their mainstreaming and alignment across all plans. She facilitates capacity building to local municipalities to assist them in their climate change and just transition roles.

Matthews Hlabane is the Co-ordinator of the Southern Africa Green Revolutionary Council (SAGRC) in eMalahlen; he worked for MACUA Mining Affected Communities United in Action; and is the national organiser of the right to say no and Cry of Xcluded, SAMMAC, which is a loose network of mining affected communities. He focuses on environmental justice struggles and this has led him to establish links with a range of communities affected by mining.

Nonkululeko Makua is the Manager for Parks, Cemeteries and Public Open Spaces, in the Environmental and Waste Management Directorate of the municipalities. She is the former Climate Change Champion of the eMalahleni Municipality.

Tlangelani Rita Ndlhovu is a researcher at the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) and focuses on climate change and just transition debates. Prior to joining the NUM, she worked for the Mineworkers Investment Trust (MIT) focusing on financial literacy. Prior to that she was involved in capacity building of young researchers in her role at the Department of Science and Technology. She is involved in a number of structures linked to Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU), tripartite and educational institutions. She has a Master of Business Administration (MBA), a Bachelor of Commerce Honours degree in Industrial and Organisational Psychology and a Bachelor of Arts Honours degree in Gender studies.

About the facilitator

Gaylor Montmasson-Clair is a Senior Economist at TIPS, where he leads work on Sustainable Growth. He has carried out extensive research on the transition to an inclusive green economy from a developing country perspective, with a focus on policy frameworks, industrial development, just transition and resource security.

For any queiries or further information please contact Rozale Sewduth - Rozale@tips.org.za

The bulletin is a review of quarterly trends, developments and data in the real economy, covering the GDP, employment, international trade, investment, and foreign direct investment.The briefing notes in this edition look at the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and its impact on South African exports; and Understanding localisation. Read here: The Real Economy Bulletin - First Quarter 2022.

Main Bulletin: The Real Economy Bulletin - First Quarter 2022

In this edition

GDP growth: The GDP expanded almost 2% in the first quarter of 2022, bringing the GDP back to pre-pandemic levels. GDP growth has become far more volatile since the pandemic, however. Moreover, significant differences persist between sectors, with agriculture showing the strongest recovery and construction by far the weakest. Read more.

Employment: The available employment data suggest that the jobs recovery has lagged well behind the GDP, especially for lower-level formal employees and domestic workers. The number of employers and self-employed people has also dropped sharply. The employment data became significantly less reliable during the pandemic, however, because public-health concerns affected labour force surveys. Read more.

International trade: In the first quarter of 2022, the balance of trade remained positive but declined by almost half compared to the previous quarter. The fall mostly resulted from the spike in petroleum prices internationally, despite strength in the prices of South Africa’s main mining exports over most of the quarter. Read more.

Investment: Investment remained 6% below pre-pandemic levels, despite some recovery from the middle of 2021. It rose 4.1% in the first quarter of 2022, with a 4.9% increase in government investment and 4.1% in private investment, which is far larger. State-owned corporations cut their investment by 1.1%, however. In mining, profits fell with global prices but were still much higher than in the late 2010s. Manufacturing returns remained strong. Read more.  

Foreign direct investment projects: The TIPS Foreign Direct Investment Tracker monitors FDI projects on a quarterly basis, using published investment information. The total investment value from projects captured this quarter was R96.1 billion. Some of the projects captured in this quarter were announced at the 2022 South African Investment Conference. Read more.

Briefing Note: The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and its impact on South African exports: The CBAM is a headline policy initiative of the European Green Deal. It levies a tax on greenhouse gases embedded in products imported into the EU to stop industries from shifting production to jurisdictions with weaker carbon pricing and regulation. It will function in parallel with and mirror the EU’s Emission Trading Scheme. The CBAM will gradually replace the current mechanisms used to address carbon leakage, specifically free allocationsmarket. Read the Briefing Note online: The European Union's Carbon Boarder Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and its impact on South African exports.

Briefing Note: Understanding localisation: Localisation has become a buzzword in industrial policy in South Africa, appearing in departmental strategies, Parliamentary debates, and National Economic Development and Labour Council (NEDLAC) agreements. For most people, however, it remains poorly defined, although the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition has published some useful guidelines. Read the Briefing Note online: Understanding localisation.