In this edition

GDP growth: The GDP shrank by 0.35% in the third quarter of 2024. The main driver was a reported 29% drop in agricultural production, mostly due to the drought. The rest of the economy expanded 0.4%. In manufacturing, the auto industry faced headwinds as international car exports contracted. Read more.

Employment: In the year to the third quarter of 2024, formal employment was virtually unchanged. In contrast, informal employment reportedly climbed by 7%, with a surge in informal construction jobs. As a result, the Quarterly Labour Force Survey found an increase in total employment of 200 000 for the period, or 1.2%, to almost 17 million jobs. Manufacturing gained 120 000 jobs over the year, climbing to 1.6 million, but remained well below pre-pandemic levels. Read more.

Infrastructure: In volume terms, services provided by the national electricity grid, rail and ports all increased modestly in the past quarter. Eskom is now back to levels of supply last seen in 2020, and has not loadshed in more than six months. Financing further improvements remains a point of contention. In this context, Eskom has applied for a 36% increase in tariffs in 2025, which would push its revenues up to 6% of the GDP. Read more.

International trade: South Africa had a merchandise trade surplus in the third quarter of 2024, continuing an almost unbroken trend since the COVID-19 downturn. Export revenues were hit by a 3.5% increase in the exchange rate relative to the nominal dollar, as well as a slump in auto sales and lower prices for some major mining commodities. The stronger currency moderated the cost of imports, however, including petrol. Read more.

Investment and profitability: Investment continued to decline in the third quarter of 2024. It was almost 3% lower than in the third quarter of 2023, and 7% below its post-pandemic peak in the second quarter of that year. Private investment fell 1.7% in the past quarter, while public investment gained 5%. Still, public investment remains a third lower than at its peak in the mid-2010s. In terms of return on assets, mining and construction declined in the second quarter of 2024, but manufacturing remained stable. Read more.

Foreign direct investment projects: The TIPS Foreign Direct Investment Tracker monitors FDI projects quarterly, using published investment information. This quarter 16 projects were added to the Tracker. Only six of these reported the value of the investment, totalling R17.3 billion. Investment was registered across four sectors, mining, manufacturing, electricity and services. Monitoring further updated 16 pre-existing projects. Read more.

Briefing Note 1: Insights fom the TIPS regional tracker: How commodity dependence harms continental SADC - by Danae Govender and Liako Mofo. TIPS is introducing a new Regional Tracker, which will provide a regular analysis of economic performance and industrialisation in continental SADC. It provides key data on economic growth, inequality, trade flows, infrastructure development, and investment. This briefing note highlights findings on economic growth, export composition, and inequality in continental SADC. Read the Briefing Note online: Insights fom the TIPS Regional Tracker.

Briefing Note 2: Green hydrogen projects and just transition tools - by Muhammed Patel. A just transition is critical for South Africa as it seeks to decarbonise and move away from coal dependence. In this context, the development of a domestic green hydrogen value chain has been gaining attention. It may offer opportunities to absorb workers from coal and other affected value chains, create jobs, and build a sustainable energy future. To take advantage of these opportunities, however, stakeholders in South Africa need to understand how green hydrogen projects are unfolding, how they integrate just transition principles, and the barriers they face at the project level. Read the Briefing Note online: Green hydrogen projects and just transition tools.