South Africa had a trade surplus of R93.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021, down from R101 billion in the third quarter of 2021. Year-on-year, imports increased by about 17% to R381 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021, while exports increased by about 9% to R475 billion in the same period. Trade, and especially imports, saw a recovery following the early negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic at the start 2020. Imports reached their highest fourth quarter level since peaking at R389 billion in 2014, and exports also continued their growth trajectory, reaching their highest fourth quarter level in 2021.

This Import Tracker has an overview of the year. See Section 2: Summary of Trends from 2021.

Presentations

Refining and logistics sectors (Dave Wright, Independent Researcher and a Director of the South African National Energy Association)

Petrol stations, workers and a just transition in South Africa (Nokwanda Maseko, TIPS Senior Economist)

Employment opportunities in a biomass supply chain (Farai Chineshe, Bioenergy Analyst, WWF South Africa)

Media

Press release: Some tough conversations needed to address the transition in the liquid fuel value chain

Just transition holds opportunities, but also risks for South Africa's liquid fuel value chain (Engineering News, 8 June - Schalk Burger)

This webinar is part of the Making Sense of Employment in South Africa's Just Energy Transition project. TIPS and the WWF South Africa, with the support of GIZ, are implementing this initiative to support policymaking for South Africa's just transition. This focuses on employment and the relevant challenges and opportunities in the country's just energy transition.

Related research

Research Report: Exploring alternative options for coal truckers in a biomass supply chain (Farai Chireshe and Tjasa Bole-Rentel (WWF South Africa)

Policy Brief: Employment metrics in South Africa’s electricity value chains (Lauren Hermanus, Adapt)

Programme  

Welcome and introduction: Gaylor Montmasson-Clair, TIPS

Presentation of research findings

• Refining & logistics sectors, Dave Wright, Independent Researcher and a Director of the South African National Energy Association (SANEA)
• Petrol stations, workers and a just transition in South Africa, Nokwanda Maseko, Senior Economist, TIPS
• Exploring employment options in a biomass supply chain, Farai Chireshe, Bioenergy Analyst, WWF-SA

Panel discussion

• Shamini Harrington, Vice-President: Climate Change, Sasol and Presidential Climate Commissioner
• Boitumelo Molete, Social Development Policy Coordinator, Congress of South African Trade Unions
• Rod Crompton, Adjunct Professor & Director, Wits Business School, African Energy Leadership Centre

Background 

While there is consensus that South Africa should decarbonise rapidly to meet its climate commitments, in line with a net zero emission pathway by 2050, the impacts of such a low-carbon transition and how it should be mitigated are hotly debated. In South Africa’s fossil fuel dependent economy, these debates have coalesced around the phase-out of coal and the introduction of renewable energy. Yet, the transition will have economy- and society-wide implications. Particularly, the liquid fuel value chain is set to be impacted as transportation is increasingly electrified and the consumption of petroleum products gradually decreases. The implications of the low-carbon transition on the liquid fuel value chain in South Africa remain largely unexplored.

While not a traditional oil producer, South Africa has an important liquid fuel value chain. It ranges from coal- and gas-to-liquid production, to import terminals and refineries, to transportation and retail services. The drive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, heightened environmental standards (particularly for fuels), and technological evolutions (especially in transportation) are set to deeply impact the value chain. The impact on the unique circumstances in the South African liquid fuel value chain are unclear. South Africa is a net importer of liquid fuel but does have material production from coal and gas. At the same time, fuel standards lag significantly global standards and local refineries are small in size by international metrics. Global developments are set to lead to the restructuring and closure of facilities, with impacts throughout the value chain. In contrast, the domestic industry could be a major player in the production of so-called "powerfuels" or "green fuels", leveraging strong renewable energy potential, a large sustainable biomass resource base and expertise in the Fischer-Tropsch process. Mostly capital intensive to date, the industry does employ a noteworthy number of people, particularly at the retail stage (i.e. petrol stations). Future development could create meaningful employment in the value chain. Within this context, understanding what a "just transition" of the liquid fuel industry in South Africa could look like remains to be investigated.

About the facilitator 

Gaylor Montmasson-Clair is a Senior Economist at TIPS. He leads TIPS's work on Sustainable Growth. Gaylor is also a Research Associate at the University of Johannesburg’s Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development (CCRED). Gaylor has been working on green economy issues for more than a decade and has carried out extensive research on the transition to an inclusive green economy from a developing country perspective, with a focus on policy frameworks, industrial development, just transition and resource security.

About the presenters and panellists 

Nokwanda Maseko is a Senior Economist at TIPS. She was previously a Budget Analyst at National Treasury and an Assistant Director at the Economic Development Department (EDD) focused on industrial policy.

Farai Chireshe is a bioenergy analyst at WWF-SA. He is a seasoned chemical engineer and renewable energy expert with a focus on technology advancement, environmental sustainability, and climate change mitigation and adaptation. He is an expert on sustainable aviation fuels (SAF).

Dave Wright is an independent consultant focusing on energy matters with oil and gas as a particular interest, since he retired from Engen Petroleum after over two decades at the company. He is on the Board of South African National Energy Association (SANEA), as a Director. He was SANEA’s Secretary General from 2012 to 2018. He is also an Adjunct Professor at the University of Cape Town.

Shamini Harrington is a seasoned climate change expert who has a Master’s Degree in Environmental Science with a specialisation in climate change management. She began her career as a researcher at the CSIR, before moving into a corporate environment. At Sasol she is the Vice President for Climate Change where she leads a diverse team focusing on reducing emissions, transforming operations and shifting the company’s portfolio. In December 2020 she was appointed as a Presidential Climate Commissioner. For five years she negotiated international climate change policy, as the first business representative on South Africa’s negotiating team at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. She was previously Co-Chair of the National Business Institute’s Environment Committee and Chair of the South African Petroleum Industry Association’s Climate Change Committee. She is the current BUSA Environment and Just Transition Committees Chair, representing business at NEDLAC. 

Rod Crompton is a Visiting Professor at the Wits Business School at the University of Witwatersrand, where he established the African Energy Leadership Centre. He was a full-time board member at the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) for 11 years and was Deputy Director General at the Department of Minerals and Energy where he was responsible for hydrocarbons and energy planning for eight years. He is also a Non-Executive Director at Eskom.

Boitumelo Molete is the Social Development Policy Coordinator, within the Policy Unit of the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU). Prior to that, she was a Research Project Assistant at the National Labour and Economic Development Institute (NALEDI).

For further information contact Rozale@tips.org.za

TIPS is establishing a Project Management Unit to support government and industry in realising the objectives of the Sector Master Plans. TIPS is seeking a full-time Senior Project Manager for the steel sector, to join as a member of the unit on a 24-month contract. Closing date: 30 May 2022. See link for details and how to apply. https://www.tips.org.za/vacancies

The Industrial Policy for Policy Makers (IPPM) 2022 training programme will take place from 5-9 September, alongside the annual APORDE programme. This year's theme is Green Agricultural and Industrial Development in Africa. IPPM is aimed at senior government officials from across Africa and will be held in Pretoria, South Africa. Applications close on 22 July 2022. More more information and the application for go to: IPPM 2022.

The 2022 TIPS Forum will be held in a hybrid format allowing for both in-person and virtual participation. The in-person event will be held at 

In the fourth quarter of 2021, South Africa’s merchandise exports continued on their upward trend, recording a 7.6%  year-on-year increase, amounting to R466 billion. However, quarterly growth was marginal, with a 0.8% increase from Q3 2021. Imports also markedly increased by 17.8% year-on-year, amounting to R381 billion in Q4 2021 and, on a quarterly basis, imports  increased by 5.6% from Q3 2021. A higher increase in imports than exports in Q4 2021 resulted in South Africa recording a slightly lower trade surplus of R85.3 billion, down from R102 billion in Q3 2021. In US dollar terms, South Africa’s exports increased by 14.6% year-on-year, amounting to US$30 billion in Q4 2021, while declining by 3.9% from Q3 2021. Imports also increased by 25.5% year-on-year, amounting to US$24.7 billion in Q4 2021 and marginally increased by 0.7% from Q3 2021.

Fin24 - 9 May 2022 by Carol Paton

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Business Day - 9 May 2022 by Neva Makgetla (TIPS Senior Economist)

Read online at Business Day

Or read as a PDF