Janet Wilhelm
Bongeka Ngcobo
Bongeka Ngcobo holds a degree in Social Science and an Honours in Social Science (Public Policy), both from the University of KwaZulu Natal. She has over five years of experience in donor-funded programmes. She also has an extensive background in administration , community development, youth empowerment and stakeholder relations.
Zamaswazi Shabalala
Zamaswazi Shabalala has over a decade of experience as a project coordinator and administrator across higher education, non-profit, and international development sectors. She has a proven track record in stakeholder management, project management and programme implementation, data management, logistics, budget management, and event coordination. She holds a Diploma in Office Management and Technology (majoring in Business Administration) from the University of South Africa (Unisa), and a Diploma in Information Technology (NQF 5) from Jeppe College of Commerce and Computer Studies. She is pursuing a Bachelor of Business Administration (majoring in Business Management) at Unisa. She has completed short courses in Project Management from the University of Stellenbosch and Financial Management from Ninette Mouton.
The Real Economy Bulletin - First Quarter 2025
Main Bulletin: The Real Economy Bulletin - First Quarter 2025
Main Bulletin: The Read Economy Bulletin - First Quarter 2025
In this edition
GDP: The GDP barely grew from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the first quarter of 2025. It inched up at an annual rate of only 0.1% in annualised terms, with actual growth for the quarter at a barely perceivable 0.025%. Most sectors actually shrank, with a 0.3% contraction in annualised terms in non-agricultural GDP in the first quarter of 2025. Read more.
Employment: Employment grew in the year to March 2025, although it continued to lag expansion in the working-aged population. The formal sector as a whole lost jobs, however. Falling employment in domestic service and retail trade was reportedly offset by growth in manufacturing, which gained just over 70 000 new positions, as well as most other services. According to the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), within manufacturing only the metals and clothing industries experienced substantial job losses. The survey found significant job gains in machinery and auto despite their falling sales. Read more.
Infrastructure: In the first quarter of 2025, Eskom’s electricity supply fell back to levels last seen a year earlier, but the tonnage carried on rail and road and through the ports recovered slightly. Both rail and electricity are well below their levels a decade ago, while road freight and private electricity sold to the grid have grown. Eskom’s tariffs increased by around 10% above inflation in April 2025, adding to the cost burden especially on electricity-intensive producers. Read more.
International trade: South Africa ran a trade surplus in the first quarter of 2025, despite the normal seasonal downturn in mining exports. In manufacturing, auto exports grew by more than 10% in constant rand terms. Metals exports fell by a similar amount, mostly because ferrochrome production shrank thanks to lower world prices and escalating grid electricity costs. Read more.
Investment and profitability: Private investment fell at an annual rate of 5% in the first quarter of 2025, the worst decline since the pandemic downturn in the second quarter of 2020. As a result, although investment by state-owned companies increased, total gross fixed capital formation shrank by 2%. Investment is now 14% below the first quarter of 2019. Read more.
Foreign direct investment projects: The TIPS Foreign Direct Investment Tracker monitors FDI projects quarterly, using published investment information. It added 15 projects in the first quarter of 2025. The announced investment value for eight projects that reported values in the quarter came to R17.4 billion. The tracker recorded investments in manufacturing, services, mining, electricity and agriculture for the quarter. It updated 13 existing projects. Read more.
Briefing Note 1: Provincial economic developments - by Lucas Mthembu and Neva Makgetla. TIPS’s annual Provincial Review analyses key economic and policy developments in South African provinces. It highlights shifts in the national economic geography as shaped by the GDP, population, employment, business activity, and infrastructure at provincial level. The review includes a separate, detailed overview for each province. The 2024 review analyses provincial trends up to 2023, using the most recent data available as of early 2025. This briefing note summarises the key findings of The Real Economic Bulletin Provincial Review 2024. Read the Briefing Note online: Provincial economic developments.
Briefing Note 2: Greening industral policy in South Africa: Insights from China, the United States and the European Union - by Michael Hector. The European Union Green Deal Industrial Plan, the US Inflation Reduction Act, and China’s 14th Five-Year Plan are substantial policies with the potential to significantly influence the transition to greener economies. These policies, while green-focused, are integral to broader strategies aimed at economic and social recovery from the 2020 pandemic and enhancing global competitiveness. This brief draws on a recent TIPS working paper publication: Greening Industrial Policy in South Africa: Insights from China, the United States and the European Union. Read the Briefing Note online.
Luthandolwethu Zondi
Luthandolwethu Zondi joined TIPS as an Economist in October 2023. Prior to this, she served as a Junior Researcher at the Centre for Science, Technology, and Innovation Indicators (CeSTII), where her focus was on conducting survey research related to Science, Technology, and Innovation. With an MPhil in Development Finance (Cum Laude) from the University of Stellenbosch Business School, Luthando's areas of expertise include inclusive economic development, financial inclusion, and sustainable development.
The State of Small Business in South Africa, a special edition of the Real Economy Bulletin, summarises the available information on the number of small businesses, in total and by industry and province; their contribution to the GDP and employment; ownership by race, gender and age; and access to skills and infrastructure. For the formal sector, it also reviews the available data on the sector’s investment and profitability. The analysis is primarily based on household surveys and financial data through 2024.
Key findings
- The available (limited) data suggest that formal small businesses contributed 19% of GDP and 33% of employment in 2023. The informal sector generated just under 5% of GDP but provided 17% of employment, mostly in the form of own-account workers, who operated microenterprises with no other employees.
- Formal small employers have seen a decline in both numbers and employment since the 2020 COVID-19 downturn. In contrast, formal own-account workers and informal businesses have more than recovered. Value added by formal small business reportedly dropped 7% in 2023, presumably largely due to loadshedding and slow overall economic growth.
- Small business in South Africa has long lagged far behind other upper middle income countries. Only around 6% of all working-aged adults are employers or own-account workers in South Africa, compared to 20% in other upper middle income countries outside of China, and 27% in China.
- The largest sectors for small formal business are commercial services and trade, followed by manufacturing. In the informal sector, trade is far more important, followed by community services and construction. The latter includes own-account artisans such as plumbers and electricians
- Whites owned 38% of small formal businesses in 2024, although they comprised only 7% of the working-aged population. Fifteen years ago, whites owned 57%. African women owned only 13% of small formal businesses in 2024, although they made up 41% of the working-aged population
- The median age of formal business owners is 47, ten years more than for waged employees. One in ten white business owners is at retirement age
- The median income for formal employers in 2024 was R15 000 a month, compared to R10 000 for the self employed. It was R4800 for waged workers in small formal business,and in large businesses it was R6000. Median incomes in the informal sector ranged from R5000 for employers to R2000 for waged workers and only R1200 for own-account workers.
- In the lowest-income 60% of households, only 8% said earnings from a business formed their most important income source. In the richest 10% of households, 17% said most of their income came from a business.
- Small formal businesses owned around 20% of private formal-sector assets in 2023. In contrast, most indicators suggest informal businesses had almost no assets at all.
- In 2024, Gauteng, the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal accounted for 74% of formal small business, compared to 58% of the working-aged population and a similar share in informal businesses. The number of formal employers has grown steadily only in the Western Cape. The provincial spread of informal business is proportional to the population.
- Waged workers in small formal business were half as likely to be union members as those in larger companies, with virtually no union members in the informal sector. Smaller formal businesses were substantially less likely than larger ones to provide retirement or medical funds, or to meet requirements in the Basic Conditions of Employment Act.
- In 2024, 22% of formal own-account business owners had graduated university, up from 17% in 2009. For formal employers, the share had risen from 13% to 17%. In contrast, only 5% of waged workers in small formal businesses had a degree in 2024. Under 5% of informal business owners had a degree, and only 30% had at least matric, compared to 55% of their formal counterparts.
- According to Statistics South Africa, 50% of informal businesses operated in their own homes in 2023. Over 30% worked outside (at an open market, taxi rank or sidewalk), 11% in someone else’s home, and only 5% in a non-residential building. For business owners in the poorest 60% of households, around 90% had electricity at home but only 60% had running water. Just 14% had a computer, although 80% had a smartphone.
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Export Tracker Q3 2024
From Q3 2014 to Q3 2024 South Africa's imports and exports both trended upwards, with growth in exports outpacing growth in imports. In Q3 2024, exports are 22% higher than they were in Q3 2014, while imports are 3% higher. In addition, the quarterly average for exports (R459 billion in constant 2024 rand) was higher than it was for imports, at R428 billion. South Africa went from subsequent quarters with a negative trade balance, at the start of the timeframe, to subsequent quarters with a positive trade balance, at the end of the timeframe.
Import Tracker Q4 2024
The Real Economy Bulletin - Fourth Quarter 2024
Main Bulletin: The Real Economy Bulletin - Fourth Quarter 2024
In this edition
GDP growth: The non-agricultural GDP grew by 0.2% in the last quarter of 2024. Every sector shrank, however, except business services, trade and agriculture. The slowdown in the past two years is associated with a sharp fall in world mining prices, affecting South Africa’s main exports. Surprising growth in agricultural value add pushed total GDP growth up to 0.6% for the quarter and for 2024 as a whole. Within manufacturing, results varied substantially by industry. Read more.
Employment: Total employment increased by 2.1% in the year to the fourth quarter of 2024, much faster than GDP growth. Unusually large gains were reported for informal employment in particular. The official employment survey also found that manufacturing employment expanded more than 10% during the year, although it remains lower than before the 2020 COVID-19 downturn. Read more.
Infrastructure: Grid electricity dropped sharply in the final quarter of 2024. Although loadshedding returned in early 2025, it remained far lower than in 2023. That outcome likely reflected both continued growth in off-grid energy, mostly solar, combined with shrinking effective demand as Eskom tariff increases accelerated. Rail freight tonnage remained almost unchanged in the two years to December 2024, while road freight fell over 10%, reflecting slow economic growth. Read more.
International trade: In the last quarter of 2024, exports increased slightly, but they remained lower than a year earlier. Outside of gold and chromium, most of mining saw lower prices in the past year. Imports fell more sharply than exports, largely as a result of lower petroleum prices. In manufacturing, exports shrank, with lower mining prices cutting the value of metals exports. Auto and machinery sales also fell for the year as a whole, although auto saw some recovery in the final quarter of 2024. Imports of machinery and autos declined, presumably as a consequence of slow GDP growth and persistent high interest rates. Read more.
Investment and profitability: A 6% fall in public-sector investment drove a 1% drop in total investment in the fourth quarter of 2024. Private investment, however, increased by 1% from the third to the fourth quarter of the year, although it remained well below pre-pandemic levels. The investment rate dropped to 14.1% at the end of 2024, a level last seen in mid-2022 as the economy recovered from the pandemic downturn. Read more.
Foreign direct investment projects: The TIPS Foreign Direct Investment Tracker monitors FDI projects quarterly, using published investment information. In the fourth quarter of 2024, it added 27 projects, mostly in the electricity sector. Of the new projects, 21 announced the value of the investment, totalling R56.7 billion. The Tracker also updated information on 16 pre-existing projects. Read more.
Briefing Note 1: South Africa and the G20 Presidency - by Faizel Ismail and Saul Levin. South Africa has assumed the Presidency of the G20. President Cyril Ramaphosa has made it clear that he will stand for the interests of the African continent as a priority in South Africa’s G20 leadership. He will strive to build the solidarity of the Global South. In addition he will to build convergence with the G20’s richer Northern economies and powers, based on the principles of multilateralism, equity, social justice, respect for diversity and development. President Ramaphosa will be conscious of the fact that this is the first G20 to be held on African soil, and the first G20 for the African Union and for the African continent to be full participants. Read the Briefing Note online: South Africa and the G20 Presidency.
Briefing Note 2: Options for localising steel inputs from the infrastructure build programme - by Neva Makgetla. The government has sought a rigorous redirection of its spending towards physical public infrastructure projects. It aims to both improve services for business and to stimulate local input manufacturers, especially in the steel value chain. Yet the last major build programme, 10 years ago, fell short on both counts. Moreover, localisation policies now face a radically changed legal environment. To help understand the evolving context for localisation. a new report by TIPS assesses the impact of localisation policies in the last major build programme; the new legal framework; and the costs, benefits and risks of leading options to support industrialisation through local procurement. This briefing note summarises findings on the new legal environment. Read the Briefing Note online: Options for localising steel inputs for the infrastructure build programme.
The Real Economy Bulletin Provincial Review 2024
The TIPS Provincial Review 2024 analyses key economic and policy developments in the provinces. It comprises an overview report that summarises how the national economic geography is changing in terms of GDP, population, employment, formal business location, and infrastructure. For each province, a separate publication describes developments and major new projects in more depth. This review analyses provincial trends primarily up to 2023, the latest available estimates as of early 2025
Overview Report
The Real Economy Bulletin Provincial Review 2024
Provincial Reports
Eastern Cape: The Eastern Cape is the fourth most populous province in South Africa but has a slow population growth rate. The province’s contribution to the national GDP has been declining since 2011. Manufacturing is the largest real economic sector, followed by construction, with relatively small mining activity. Not only does the province have the highest level of unemployment in the country, its labour absorption rate has fallen over the past decade. Read more.
Free State: The Free State province in South Africa has a slow-growing population and is the second-lowest contributor to the national output after Northern Cape, with its contribution to GDP remaining flat over the past decade. The lacklustre contribution to GDP and the growth rate is often attributed to the waning mining sector in the province. Mining is the largest real economic sector in the Free State, followed by manufacturing and agriculture. The province experienced a strong rebound in 2021, despite this, it is still among the least-performing provinces. Read more.
Gauteng: Gauteng is the most populous province in South Africa, with a rapidly growing population due to a large influx of internal migrants. It is also the largest economy in the country, although its growth has been declining over the years, with significant drops during economic crises. The real economy in Gauteng is dominated by the manufacturing sector, followed by construction, mining, and agriculture. Employment in the real economy has not reached pre-pandemic levels, although manufacturing remains the largest employer among real sectors. Overall, Gauteng enjoys better service provision than other provinces. Read more.
KwaZulu-Natal: KwaZulu-Natal is the second most populous province in South Africa and has the second-largest economy in the country. The province’s real economy is dominated by the manufacturing sector, particularly the food and beverage, petroleum and metals industries. The province also has a significant agricultural sector and a smaller construction industry. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on KwaZulu-Natal's economy, with employment in the real economy declining but recovering from 2022. Read more.
Limpopo: Limpopo has the highest share of the population living in former homelands. Despite a declining growth rate since 2011, Limpopo’s contribution to national GDP has remained stable. Among real economic sectors, mining is the most significant contributor to the province’s GDP, while agriculture and manufacturing are almost equal. The metals and food and beverage industries dominate the manufacturing sector. Construction overtook agriculture as the largest employer among the real economic sectors in 2023. Read more.
Mpumalanga: Mpumalanga’s population has grown significantly and half the province’s residents live in non-urban areas. The real economy is mainly driven by the mining industry, followed by manufacturing. The largest manufacturing industries are petroleum, metals, food and beverages. The COVID-19 pandemic devastated employment in Mpumalanga. The province has a lower labour absorption rate than the national average. Read more.
North West: The North West province has the third lowest population in South Africa, and nearly half of the population lives in non-urban areas. The economy is primarily driven by the mining industry, and rising commodity prices in 2021 led to significant growth in provincial output. Manufacturing contributes far less to provincial output, and the sector is dominated by food and beverages, and metals. The province has a high level of unemployment compared to the national average. Read more.
Northern Cape: The Northern Cape is the least populated province in South Africa, and most of the province’s population lives in urban areas. The Northern Cape contributes the least to national output, and growth has plateaued over the years. In 2021, however, the commodity boom boosted provincial growth. Among the real economic sectors, mining plays a dominant role in the province. Agriculture, manufacturing, and construction also have a presence. Employment levels are lower than in the rest of the country. Read more.
Western Cape: The Western Cape is South Africa’s fourth most populous province, with almost the entire population living in urban areas and a small minority on farms. The province is the third largest economy in the country. Real economic sectors in the province are dominated by manufacturing, followed by agriculture and construction. The manufacturing sector is dominated by food and beverages, and metals. The level of joblessness in the province is low compared to the national average. The Western Cape has a high level of service provision as most of the population lives in urban areas. Read more.
The Real Economy Bulletin - Third Quarter 2024
Main Bulletin: The Real Economy Bulletin - Third Quarter 2024
In this edition
GDP growth: The GDP shrank by 0.35% in the third quarter of 2024. The main driver was a reported 29% drop in agricultural production, mostly due to the drought. The rest of the economy expanded 0.4%. In manufacturing, the auto industry faced headwinds as international car exports contracted. Read more.
Employment: In the year to the third quarter of 2024, formal employment was virtually unchanged. In contrast, informal employment reportedly climbed by 7%, with a surge in informal construction jobs. As a result, the Quarterly Labour Force Survey found an increase in total employment of 200 000 for the period, or 1.2%, to almost 17 million jobs. Manufacturing gained 120 000 jobs over the year, climbing to 1.6 million, but remained well below pre-pandemic levels. Read more.
Infrastructure: In volume terms, services provided by the national electricity grid, rail and ports all increased modestly in the past quarter. Eskom is now back to levels of supply last seen in 2020, and has not loadshed in more than six months. Financing further improvements remains a point of contention. In this context, Eskom has applied for a 36% increase in tariffs in 2025, which would push its revenues up to 6% of the GDP. Read more.
International trade: South Africa had a merchandise trade surplus in the third quarter of 2024, continuing an almost unbroken trend since the COVID-19 downturn. Export revenues were hit by a 3.5% increase in the exchange rate relative to the nominal dollar, as well as a slump in auto sales and lower prices for some major mining commodities. The stronger currency moderated the cost of imports, however, including petrol. Read more.
Investment and profitability: Investment continued to decline in the third quarter of 2024. It was almost 3% lower than in the third quarter of 2023, and 7% below its post-pandemic peak in the second quarter of that year. Private investment fell 1.7% in the past quarter, while public investment gained 5%. Still, public investment remains a third lower than at its peak in the mid-2010s. In terms of return on assets, mining and construction declined in the second quarter of 2024, but manufacturing remained stable. Read more.
Foreign direct investment projects: The TIPS Foreign Direct Investment Tracker monitors FDI projects quarterly, using published investment information. This quarter 16 projects were added to the Tracker. Only six of these reported the value of the investment, totalling R17.3 billion. Investment was registered across four sectors, mining, manufacturing, electricity and services. Monitoring further updated 16 pre-existing projects. Read more.
Briefing Note 1: Insights fom the TIPS regional tracker: How commodity dependence harms continental SADC - by Danae Govender and Liako Mofo. TIPS is introducing a new Regional Tracker, which will provide a regular analysis of economic performance and industrialisation in continental SADC. It provides key data on economic growth, inequality, trade flows, infrastructure development, and investment. This briefing note highlights findings on economic growth, export composition, and inequality in continental SADC. Read the Briefing Note online: Insights fom the TIPS Regional Tracker.
Briefing Note 2: Green hydrogen projects and just transition tools - by Muhammed Patel. A just transition is critical for South Africa as it seeks to decarbonise and move away from coal dependence. In this context, the development of a domestic green hydrogen value chain has been gaining attention. It may offer opportunities to absorb workers from coal and other affected value chains, create jobs, and build a sustainable energy future. To take advantage of these opportunities, however, stakeholders in South Africa need to understand how green hydrogen projects are unfolding, how they integrate just transition principles, and the barriers they face at the project level. Read the Briefing Note online: Green hydrogen projects and just transition tools.