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This briefing note considers three key questions about inflation targeting in South Africa, drawing on international experience as well as an assessment of the conceptual framework for monetary policy. First, does inflation in the low single digits promote development and growth? If not, raising interest rates at low rates of…

  • Year 2015
  • Author(s) Stephanie Seguino
Published in Policy Briefs
Responses to Eskom’s request for compensation for additional costs and for lower than expected sales in 2013/4 should be designed to support industrialisation. From this standpoint, the regulator’s response to Eskom’s proposals should take into account the following. Eskom should be guaranteed compensation for the cost of diesel and other…

  • Year 2016
  • Author(s) Neva Makgetla
Published in Policy Briefs

Most economics curricula deal with macroeconomic tools for studying the economy as a whole and microeconomic tools for studying the behaviour of individual agents or markets. However, many policies create costs and benefits that extend beyond the targeted sectors or agents.

Furthermore, the impacts on the policy targets are themselves conditioned by the macroeconomic adjustment processes and the structures and institutions of the economy in which they are implemented. Practical public and private sector policy analysts thus often need an economy-wide perspective on the policies they design, implement and monitor.

Economic modelling techniques that capture these economy-wide impacts are increasingly being used in policy, consulting, research and academic environments. Input-output and social accounting matrix (SAM) analysis are used on a regular basis to analyse the impact of policy-related and other changes on the economy. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models build on these techniques to allow for a wide range of behavioural responses and interactions. While these techniques were once the preserve of a handful of leading theoreticians, the IT revolution has allowed them to become part of the practical economist's everyday toolkit.

In 2001 Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) started (co-)presenting introductory workshops to cater for the rising demand for these techniques. Since then it has held more than thirty such workshops, with more than 500 participants from over 30 countries.

The accumulated experience of running these workshops suggests that there are three different kinds of model users, each requiring different skills. Firstly, modellers need the skills to adapt existing models for new applications and to develop new models completely. Secondly, many policy analysts need to use economy-wide models routinely in their work.

They may want to run and interpret the results of standard models dealing with their specific issues. They also may want to be able to interact with modellers when commissioning work from them. Finally, while never needing to run models themselves, many senior policy managers draw on modelling work undertaken by consultants and others. They need to know when the methods are appropriate and to be able to interrogate the results properly.

TIPS has evolved a suite of three related introductory workshops designed to meet these different needs. All three workshops focus on learning by doing. Brief presentations introduce the various topics, after which participants do hands-on exercises implementing what they have learned. There is also emphasis on the nature of the data underlying the models. Participants undertake projects dealing with typical issues, using real world data.

The first of these three workshops, Economy-Wide Policy Impact Analysis, is suitable for all three of kinds of users mentioned above. It introduces participants to input-output, SUT and SAM multiplier analysis and their extensions. These techniques are widely used to assess the likely impact of policy and other shocks to the economy. They can also form the basis for many CGE models. All the models are implemented in MS Excel.

The second workshop, Introduction to Economy-Wide Modelling for Policy Analysis, targets primarily managers and policy analysts, although it is also useful for those wishing to become modellers who want to get a taste of what it is like. It introduces participants to the key components of standard CGE models, emphasising how to use economy-wide models and the economic interpretation of their outputs, rather than the techniques of building them. The models are run using a specially developed MS Excel interface with specialised modelling software.

Finally the third workshop, Introduction to Computable General Equilibrium modelling using GAMS, specifically targets those wanting to become modellers. It introduces the participants to economy-wide model building, using specialised modelling software. While the material is driven by the economics of models, the major focus is on actual model building techniques. This workshop does not require prior knowledge of model building, but is technically more difficult than either of the other two workshops. Workshop B or equivalent is considered to be a prerequisite to participate.

The different aspects of the three workshops are summarised in Table 1. The precise content of each workshop is varied from time to time, to meet needs of specific participants and as the field evolves. Schematic outlines of the programmes are presented in Table 2.

Who should attend

Workshop A: Economy-Wide Policy Impact Analysis is suitable for senior policy managers, policy analysts and intending modellers.
Workshop B: Introduction to Economy-Wide Modelling for Policy Analysis is also suitable for senior policy managers, policy analysts and intending modellers.
Workshop C: Introduction to Computable General Equilibrium modelling using GAMS is suitable for intending modellers.

No pre-reading is required for any of these workshops and all necessary materials will be provided for the course. However, interested participants may wish to consult the following references as preliminary reading.

Suggested readings

Workshop A
Jeffrey Round 2003 "Social Accounting Matrices and SAM-based Multiplier Analysis" Chapter 14 in L A Pereira da Silva and F Bourguignon (editors) Techniques for Evaluating the Poverty Impact of Economic Policies, World Bank and Oxford University Press, September 2003. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPSIA/Resources/490023-1121114603600/14017chapter14.pdf

Workshops B and C
Lofgren, H; Harris, DL & Robinson, S, 2002, A Standard Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model in GAMS, Microcomputers in Policy Research 5, http://www.ifpri.org/publication/standard-computable-general-equilibrium-cge-model-gams-0   

Lofgren, H, 2003, Exercises in general equilibrium modeling using GAMS and key to exercises in CGE modeling using GAMS, Microcomputers in Policy Research 4a, http://www.ifpri.org/publication/exercises-general-equilibrium-modeling-using-gams-and-key-exercises-cge-modeling-using  

TABLES: WORKSHOP SUMMARIES AND SCHEMATIC PROGRAMMES FOR WORKSHOPS

Table 1: Workshop Summaries

    Who Should Attend Skills required Technical content Pre-requisites (apart from Economics)
A Economy-Wide Policy Impact Analysis
  • Senior Policy Managers
  • Policy Analysts
  • Intending Modellers
  • Familiarity with Excel
  • Basic Matrix algebra
  • None
B Introduction to Economy-Wide Modelling for Policy Analysis
  • Senior Policy Managers
  • Policy Analysts
  • Intending Modellers
  • Familiarity with Excel
  • Sufficient background in quantitative methods not to be put off by algebraic expressions
 
  • None
C Introduction to Computable General Equilibrium modelling using GAMS
  • Intending modellers
  • Workshop B or equivalent workshops elsewhere.
  • Ability to manipulate and interpret algebraic expressions
  • Coding in GAMS
  • Workshop B

 

Table 2: Schematic Programmes for Workshops (subject to change)

  A B C
  Economy-Wide Policy Impact Analysis Introduction to Economy-Wide Modelling for Policy Analysis Introduction to Computable General Equilibrium modelling using GAMS
Day 1
  • Intro to workshop and economy-wide impact analysis
  • Intro to SU tables
  • The SUT multiplier model
  • Introduction to workshop
  • Introduction to economy-wide modelling
  • The SAM as a CGE data base
  • A simple CGE
  • Introduction to Computable General Models
  • Modelling with GAMS
  • Partial equilibrium models in GAMS
Day 2
  • The SUT supply constrained multiplier model
  • The SUT price model
  • Introducing intermediates, macroeconomics, non-homogenous factor markets and unemployment
  • A simple CGE
  • Introducing intermediates, macroeconomics, non-homogenous factor markets and unemployment
Day 3
  • Intro to SAMs
  • SAM multipliers
  • Adding government and the rest of the world
  • Adding government and the rest of the world
  • Lectures on special topics in CGE
Day 4
  • Regional SAMs
  • Mini projects
  • Using the IFPRI standard model
  • Applying the IFPRI model and mini-projects
  • Using the IFPRI standard model
  • Applying the IFPRI model and simulations
Day 5
  • Project presentations
  • Moving Forward
  • Presentation of mini-projects
  • Moving forward
  • Conducting and discussing simulations
  • Moving forward
Published in General
BACKGROUND Coming out of the Malaysian experience on a ‘Big Fast Results’ methodology, South Africa ran an Operation Phakisa on the ocean economy. Operation Phakisa is a results-driven approach, involving setting clear plans and targets, on-going monitoring of progress and making these results public. The Phakisa looked at the untapped…

  • Date Wednesday, 09 March 2016
  • Time 10:30 to 12:00
  • Venue TIPS Boardroom, 227 Lange St, Nieuw Muckleneuk, Pretoria
Event: Thursday, 30 July 2015, 09:00 – 12:00 followed by lunch TIPS, in association with the Department of Trade and Industry, the Embassy of Japan and Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), hosted this workshop to discuss the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) programme and the lessons emanating from the Asian experience.…

  • Date Thursday, 30 July 2015
  • Venue Burgers Park Hotel, 424 Lilian Ngoyi St, Pretoria
  • Main Speakers Tetsuya Fukunaga from JICA and Jun Morikawa from Hankyu Hanshin Express Co Ltd.
  • For enquiries or to register please contact daphney@tips.org.za
Published in Workshops
Potential of the citrus, table grape and subtropical fruit sectors and Opportunities for strategic interventions in support of agro-industrial production Given the high levels of unemployment in the rural areas of South Africa this research explored the citrus, table grape and subtropical fruit subsectors of agriculture to better understand the potential for them to contribute to export growth, transformation and employment creation. The research finds that certain categories of agriculture are more labour intensive, better suited to South Africa’s climate and have significant potential for export growth. The research also makes a case for agriculture’s central role in growth, transformation…

  • Year 2015
Published in Trade and Industry

Engineering News - 09 March 2016

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Published in TIPS In the News
The Real Economy Bulletin - Fourth Quarter 2015 In this edition: Production and sales:  In the past quarter, agricultural output dropped sharply, by 4%, while manufacturing shrank by 0,6%. Mining, however, climbed by 0,4%. Overall, GDP growth slowed significantly compared to the previous quarter.  Read more. Employment:  After falling fairly steadily from 2008, manufacturing employment levelled out in 2015. Total employment climbed by 700 000 over the year, with the bulk of net new jobs emerging in public, private and domestic services and retail. Still, the global slowdown, drought and pressure on mining and heavy industry led to widespread anticipation…
Published in Quarterly Bulletin
Agro-processing is an increasingly important market access point for agricultural producers. The development of the agro-processing sector thus has significant potential to create opportunities for smaller agricultural producers, thereby supporting the creation of new employment and livelihood opportunities in rural areas. However, market access points are not homogenous from the…

  • Year 2016
  • Author(s) Tracy Ledger
Published in Policy Briefs
Friday, 08 April 2016

Dr Faizel Ismail

Faizel Ismail has a PhD (Manchester, UK), MPhil (IDS, Sussex, UK), LLB (UKZN-Pietermaritzburg) and a BA (UKZN-Pietermaritzburg). His PhD for which he obtained an A grade pass is titled: An Empirical Analysis of Apartheid South Africa in the GATT: 1947 to 1994. Faizel is currently an Adjunct Professor at the UCT School of Economics. He is also an advisor/consultant (part-time) to the Department of Trade and Industry on International Trade and a Special Envoy on the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). He was appointed as the Chairperson of the International Trade and Administration Commission (ITAC) for a three-year term (2015-2018).…

  • Position Research Fellow
Published in TIPS Research Fellows
Monday, 18 April 2016

Revised IMF growth forecasts

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF revised downward its growth forecast for most countries and for the world as a whole. This note briefly reviews some of the key revisions. 

  • Year 2016
  • Author(s) Neva Makgetla
Published in Policy Briefs
Aquaculture is the fastest growing food producing sector in the world, and although abalone contributes a relatively small proportion to aquaculture, it is one of the most highly prized seafood delicacies and most sought-after invertebrate. With high returns, farmed, fished or ranched abalone is able to generate foreign currency earnings…

  • Year 2016
  • Author(s) Gillian Chigumira
Published in Policy Briefs
This edition of the Monitor focuses on the Employment Problem in South Africa
TOPIC: PRESENTATION OF THE LATEST QUARTERLY MANUFACTURING BULLETIN Understanding the trends and views of manufacturing firms contributes to improved implementation of sector strategies and industrial policy.  The Quarterly Manufacturing Bulletin is an initiative of the Manufacturing Circle that provides current views of manufacturing firms and an analysis of trends in…

  • Date Friday, 27 May 2016
  • Venue TIPS Boardroom, 227 Lange St, Nieuw Muckleneuk, Pretoria
  • Main Speakers Baba-Tamana Gqubule; Sithembiso Mtanga
The latest Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) reported that the country lost a total of 355 000 jobs from the last quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2016, for an astonishing 2,2% decline in a single quarter. But the figures seem unreliable, due at least in part to the…

  • Year 2016
  • Author(s) Neva Makgetla
Published in Policy Briefs
Tuesday, 17 May 2016

Job bloodbath ‘not so’

The New Age - 17 May 2016

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Published in TIPS In the News

Business Report - 18 may 2016

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Published in TIPS In the News
Report produced by Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies for WWF-SA, South Africa. WWF received funding from the British High Commission to establish a programme to provide the South African agri-food value chain with tools and information to understand and proactively respond to climate risks in the value chain thereby supporting on-going productivity in…

  • Year 2016
  • Organisation Report compiled for WWF-SA by TIPS
  • Author(s) Meshack Zwane and Gaylor Montmasson-Clair
  • Countries and Regions South Africa
Published in Climate Change
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