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Dr. Matthew Stern & Prof. Roman Grynberg

The SACU Revenue Sharing Formula: Looking Backwards & Thinking Forwards

Chair: Xavier Carim, ITED (the DTI)

 

Xavier Carim is deputy director-general of International Trade & Economic Development at the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI). He was previously chief director in the ITED division responsible  for negotiating bilateral and regional trade agreements as well as negotiating at the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

Professor Roman Grynberg is a trade economist currently Research Fellow at Bostwana Institute of Development Policy Analysis (BIDPA). He is the former head of the Trade and Regional Integration Section and Deputy Director of the Economic Affairs Division of the Commonwealth Secretariat. He has worked extensively on trade issues confronting Pacific Island countries. Generally, Roman has a passion in helping the development of small states. In 2006, he published WTO at the Margin, Small States of the Trading Systems, Cambridge University Press. In 2007, he published Commodity Prices and Development (with S. Newton), at Oxford University Press, USA.

Dr. Matthew Stern is a trade economist with a wide range of public and private sector experience. He has worked for First National Bank; the South African Department of Trade and Industry; the National Treasury of South Africa; and the World Bank. He is the founder and a Director of Development Network Africa Economics (DNA Economics), a private economic consulting company based in Pretoria. Matthew holds a PhD in Development Studies from the University of Sussex.

Please note: Professor Grynberg's presentation will be uploaded shortly.
 

Dr. Matthew Stern's presentation is based on the following publication:

  • Flatters, F., and M. Stern (2006). 'SACU Revenue Sharing: Issues and Options'. Policy Brief. Washington, DC: USAID/SEGA

http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/faculty/flatters/writings/ff&ms_sacursf_2006.pdf 

 
 
Introduction to Economy-Wide Policy Impact Analysis
TIPS Workshop: 14-17 September, 2010
Pretoria
 
Most economics curricula deal with macroeconomic tools for studying the economy as a whole and microeconomic tools for studying the behaviour of individual agents or markets. However, practical public and private sector economic analysts often need to focus on the industry/sector or meso level of economic activity. Key sector analysis, sectoral impact studies, partial and general equilibrium trade and industry analysis are frequently conducted in both the public and the private sector.
Input-Output (IO), Supply-Use Table (SUT) and social accounting matrix (SAM) analysis are often used as tools for such meso-level economic enquiry. Researchers use these tools to analyse the impact of policy-related and other changes on the economy. They can also be extended to address broader concerns, such as the impact of policy on the environment or on energy requirements. Economic modelling techniques that capture economy-wide impacts of policy changes are increasingly being used in academic, consulting, research and policy environments in Southern Africa and elsewhere.
To cater for the rising demand for these techniques, Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) started offering an introductory workshop in economy-wide policy impact analysis in 2001. We are pleased to announce that the tenth offering of this popular workshop will be held in Pretoria from 14-17 September, 2010.
The workshop is redesigned and deals primarily with SUT and SAM and is presented by academics and experts in the field of economy-wide policy modelling. Lectures are used to introduce the theory and to provide insight into the scope of research possible using the particular modelling technique. Each lecture is followed by hands-on exercises where the theory or model is applied to relevant policy issues using economic data from South Africa and other Southern African countries. Apart from imparting the practical skills needed to apply the theory, these exercises familiarise participants with key features of economies studied. Participants also present brief group projects using the modelling tools learnt during the workshop.
By the end of the workshop, participants will be equipped with sufficient theoretical and practical skills to engage in impact analysis. The workshop also provides a useful basis for process managers who have to digest such analysis, even though they may not undertake it themselves. It also provides a solid grounding for those who wish to enter into the field of computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling. For these participants, a CGE modelling workshop will be offered at a later stage.
Workshop fees (including sandwich lunch): R7 000 (excluding VAT, US$1 250 for participants from Developed Countries). To ensure that the workshop is pitched at the correct level, we invite interested participants to send the completed form attached to denves@xtra.co.nz before 9 July 2009. Successful applicants will be notified and invoiced by 13 July, 2010. Payment will be due by 13 August, failing which reserved places will be offered to other applicants on a first come (receipt of payment), first served basis.
 
 
What former participants had to say about previous workshops:
 
"With the help of an input output table, we were able to get a better understanding of the backward and forward linkages in the local Tshwane (Pretoria) context. Keeping the need to create sustainable long-term jobs, we are working on developing the tool to identify BEE and SMME opportunities as well environmental assessment."
 
André Gouws
Manager: Policy and Information
City of Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality
 
"The IO/SAM workshop is extremely useful for sectoral policy makers and analysts. It provides a working knowledge of how sectoral policy and project impact analysis can be modelled."
 
Nimrod Zalk
Deputy Director General: Industrial Policy
Enterprise and Industry Development Division Department of Trade and Industry
Department of Trade and Industry
 
“Input-output and SAM modelling are important tools in understanding the structure of the economy, and how certain economic events and/or policies would impact on the economy.  These models are highly disaggregated and provide useful insights into the linkages between various industries and institutions within the South African context.  The workshop also provides the foundations needed for more sophisticated modelling approaches such as CGE modelling.”
 
Marna Kearney
Former Director: Economy-wide Policy Modelling
Modelling and Forecasting Unit
National Treasury 
 

 Further information on registration, accommodation and required preparation can be obtained from the workshop conveners:


Dirk Ernst van Seventer - denves@xtra.co.nz

Rob Davies - rdavies@hsrc.ac.za  
 

The Conference will be hosted by the Development Policy Research Unit (DPRU) and Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS)

As with most other emerging market economies, South Africa has not escaped the real economy effects of the global financial crisis. The impact on economic growth, foreign and domestic investment and the external balance of the economy was both severe and rapid. In addition the social welfare consequences of this crisis have been widely publicised with the economy shedding close to 900 000 jobs in the period since the third quarter of 2008. With the deficit-to-GDP ratio nearing pre-1994 levels, there remains a series of economic policy questions, issues and themes around both the impact of the global financial crisis on the South African economy, as well as the possible lessons that can be gleaned from this crisis for both policymakers and analysts. To this end, we invite papers predominantly, but not exclusively, within the area of understanding the impact of the economic crisis on the nature, level and trajectory of economic growth in South Africa. The conference aims to bring together researchers, policymakers, civil society and other social partners to critically analyse the work of peers and to dialogue on the value and the findings from a policy perspective. It is expected that the following areas and sub-themes would deserve attention at the conference:

  • Monetary and Fiscal Policy in the time of Economic Crisis
  • Exchange Rate Policy and Growth Path Dynamics
  • The Poverty, Inequality and Labour Market Consequences of the Crisis
  • Consequences for Social Security During a Recession
  • The Role of Green Jobs and the Pursuit of a Green Economy in the time of Crisis
  • Debating the Global Financial Architecture: Lessons for South Africa
  • The Role of the Informal Economy: A Growth Lever During the Crisis?
 
Please visit the DPRU website for more information 

http://www.dpru.uct.ac.za/  

See Annual Forum papers

Thursday, 01 April 2010

Sustainable Growth in South Africa

 

Professor Johann Fedderke

Sustainable Growth in South Africa

Chair: Alan Hirsch, The Presidency

 

About Professor Johann Fedderke
Johann Fedderke is a Professor at Pennsylvania State University. He holds the Helen Suzman Chair in Political Economy and a position in the Business School at the University of the Witwatersrand. He is also the Director of Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA). Professor Fedderke's research interests centre on the determinants of economic growth, with a special focus on the role of institutions in long run economic development.


Professor Fedderke has an MPhil and PhD in Economics from the University of Cambridge, and has held tenured positions at the City University of London, the University of the Witwatersrand, and the University of Cape Town. He has served as Visiting Professor at the RAND Graduate School, Oxford, and the University of the Witwatersrand.


Professor Fedderke has published extensively and made substantial empirical and theoretical contributions to the field of economics in South Africa and beyond providing cross-country, panel and country specific time series evidence on the interaction of growth and institutions.

To download Professor Fedderke's presentation click here.

SADRN logos

The Southern African Development Research Network (SADRN) was launched in August 2007 as a broad-based policy and research network. The programme is funded by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) and managed by Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS). SADRN was initiated with the purpose of capacity building with specific focus on research in the southern African region as well as to strengthen evidence-based policy-making.
The objectives of the programme are as follows:

  • To increase the supply of policy-relevant research in SADC by creating a pool of suitably-skilled researchers based in institutions in SADC;
  • To improve the policy-relevance of research through growing the capacity of policy-makers to be discerning research users;
  • To develop an appreciation of evidence-based policy making by engaging policy-makers in the design, specification, implementation and review of research projects; and
  • To build institutional capacity in key organizations in SADC by creating centres of excellence in focused thematic areas of research.

The programme has been implemented through three thematic working areas namely industrial policy, trade policy and pro-poor growth and services sector development. The programme is implemented by regional institutions, with the Botswana Institute for Development and Policy Analysis (BIDPA) responsible for the trade and poverty thematic working group and the University of Mauritius, which implements the services sector development theme while TIPS is responsible for the research coordination of the industrial policy theme.

SADRN has successfully produced 25 research papers across the three thematic working groups, as well as run a number of workshops and capacity building events aimed at both policy-makers and researchers. The key underlying issue around SADRN has been around the conflicting aims of the Programme to both build and utilise research capacity within the region. With this in mind TIPS, BIDPA and UoM together with Tralac are preparing a one and a half day seminar aimed at policy-makers in the SADC region. The objective of the seminar is to take stock of the lessons learned under SADRN, as well as other similar initiatives in the region, in order to inform an agenda for future support of policy capacity building interventions in the region.

For more information on the workshop contact tanya@tips.org.za   or call on 012 431 7900

The presentation slides for the workshop are available. Click on the links below to download:

Day 1 - 20 May 2010

Day 2 - 21 May 2010

 

Professor Medhi Shafaeddin

Experience of South-South Regionalism: The Case of East and South East Asia

 

About Professor Medhi Shafaeddin

Professor Mehdi Shafaeddin is a development economist and holds a D.Phil. from Oxford University. He is currently an international consultant affiliated to the Institute of Economic Research, University of Neuchâtel, Switzerland and is engaged in research and training. The former Head, Macroeconomics and Development Policies Branch, Globalization and Development Strategies of UNCTAD, he is the author of many articles on trade policy, industrialisation, economic reform and development policies in international journals.

Professor Shafaeddin's recent work includes: Trade Policy at the Crossroads: The Recent Experience of Developing Countries (Macmillan, 2005) and Competitiveness and Development; Myths and Misconceptions, Anthem Press, forthcoming.

Professor Shafaeddin's visit in South Africa is linked to a variety of events. He is the keynote speaker at the Fourth Annual Conference on Development and Change (ACDC) held at the University of the Witwatersrand (WITS). He is also presenting at a high level policy workshop to be held at the dti. 

For more information on the ACDC Conference, please consult: http://www.caleidoscop.org/Members/janina/news10/fourth-annual-conference-on-development-and-change-acdc-johannesburg-south-africa-april-9-11-2010 

 

Wednesday, 03 February 2010

Dr Kate Philip

Kate Philip is a development strategist. She has extensive experience in the development sector as a practitioner and in policy development, focused on issues of economic marginalisation, inequality, employment and enterprise development. From within TIPS, this has included providing support to GTAC in National Treasury on regional economic development strategies, to the Economies of Regions Learning Network, and to the Integrated Wild Coast Development Programme. She has provided advisory support to the South African Presidency on issues of economic marginalisation, and played a central role in the design and development of South Africa’s Community Work Programme.

Through the International Labour Organization, she is currently supporting the government of Greece in relation to its public employment programme, Kinofelis, and regularly participates in teaching a course on Innovations in Public Employment for the International Training Centre of the ILO in Turin. She worked for many years in enterprise development in rural areas and small towns, as CEO of the Mineworkers Development Agency.

She has a PhD in Development Studies from the University of the Witwatersrand.

 

Engineering News

Climate change is increasingly recognised as one of the defining issues of the 21st century, drawing all elements of society towards the promotion of a prosperous, low carbon future. Even in times of economic recession, climate change has not fallen off the radar, with many major economies rather viewing 'green' led investment as an engine for economic recovery.

South Africa has become increasingly involved in addressing climate change issues, from our involvement in international climate negotiations, the modelling of potential mitigation scenarios under the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMS) process, and the current development of a national Climate Change White Paper. A significant amount of work has also been done to consider the direct impacts of climate change on the South African environment, including physical impacts related to higher temperatures, sea level rise, increased risk of wild fire and concerns over future water availability.

Despite these efforts, less emphasis has been placed on the indirect impacts of climate change, including how industry could be affected by shifts in consumer preferences, how the evolving carbon regulation environment in South Africa might affect industry, and how business and the economy as a whole should respond to these challenges.

To address this gap, research is currently underway that considers the indirect effects that climate change could have on South Africa's economy, ranging from impacts on the tourism sector, aviation and food exports, through to commercial opportunities in low carbon technologies and the promotion of alternative carbon markets. The project is being led by Camco, an international consulting firm specialising in climate change solutions, in partnership with Trade and Industrial Policy and Strategies (TIPS) and the ComMark Trust, with support provided by the British High Commission.

As part of the project, a stakeholder workshop including representatives from the private sector, national and local government, non-governmental organisations and the donor community is to take place in Sandton in mid-August, in order to discuss and debate the economic risks and opportunities posed by climate change for South Africa. Key questions to be discussed at the multi-stakeholder workshop include:

  • What commercial risks and opportunities do companies face from climate change?
  • How can we address these issues?
  • How will 'air miles' and the demand for low carbon goods impact South African manufacturing and exports?
  • Is the tourism sector adequately prepared for pressures to promote 'local tourism' within industrialised nations?
  • What opportunities are presented for trade in environmental services by climate change, including through land use improvements and carbon sequestration?
  • How can industry respond to a carbon tax regime in South Africa, and are there alternatives?
  • How can we fast-track activities that combat climate change and promote poverty alleviation and socio-economic development?

The research underway is premised on the understanding that climate change is not just an environmental issue, but could have significant implications for trade, investment and industry competitiveness. South Africa is a carbon intensive economy, and is therefore exposed to a number of potential climate change related liabilities. Nevertheless, risk is often the precursor of opportunity, and considerable scope exists for the South African economy to shift these potential liabilities into market enablers, as the LTMS and other studies have begun to explore.

The research will help to take the climate debate in South Africa forward, identifying economic opportunities presented by climate change and exploring synergies with national priorities relating to job creation, enterprise development and poverty alleviation. The notion of 'green jobs' has come increasingly to the fore in recent years, and highlights that a number of national efforts to address climate change could promote economic growth as well as support environmental protection.
Across the globe, companies are exploring opportunities in low carbon development in a bid to differentiate themselves and maintain market share. Effectively positioned, the South African economy could weather any severe 'climatic' storms, whilst maximising on commercial opportunities and new markets.

For media enquiries please contact:

Alex McNamara Camco South Africa
Tel: (0)11 253 3400 Cell: (0)79 699 3284 Email: alex.mcnamara@camcoglobal.com
To view the article published on the Engineering News click here

Read more...

Most economics curricula deal with macroeconomic tools for studying the economy as a whole and microeconomic tools for studying the behaviour of individual agents or markets. However, practical public and private sector economic analysts often need an economy-wide focus that combines the macroeconomics of the economy as a whole with structural detail that permits analysis of impacts at the sector or household level and of the consequences of interactions amongst them.

Economic modelling techniques that capture economy-wide impacts of policy changes are increasingly being used in academic, consulting, research and policy environments. Input-output (IO) and social accounting matrix (SAM) analysis are used on a regular basis to analyse the impact of policy-related and other changes on the economy. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models build on these techniques to allow for a wide range of behavioural responses and interactions. Both these approaches have been extended to address broader concerns, such as the impact of policy on the environment or on energy requirements.
These techniques were once the preserve of a handful of leading theoreticians. The IT revolution has allowed them to become part of the practical economist's everyday toolkit. In 2001 Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) started (co-)presenting introductory workshops to cater for the rising demand for these techniques, since when it has held eight workshops on Economy-Wide Policy Impact Analysis. These have laid the foundation for participation in workshops introducing CGE modelling, of which TIPS has run seven. In addition, TIPS has conducted several advanced modelling workshops. These workshops have contributed to the development of a community of builders and users of economy-wide models in Southern Africa.
In 2010 TIPS will be holding a workshop combining both Economy-Wide Policy Impact Analysis and CGE modelling. The workshop will be structured so that participants can select whether to attend the whole workshop, to complete only that part dealing with Economy-Wide Policy Impact Analysis or, if they have the background, to attend only the latter part dealing with CGE models.
The workshop is designed and presented by academics and experts in the field of economy-wide policy modelling. It integrates theory, real world data, hands-on computer work and real world application.
In the first component of the workshop, participants will
·         be introduced to actual input output tables, supply-use tables and social accounting matrices;
·         learn how to develop and interpret various impact multipliers based on these tables;
·         extend the use of the approaches to examine, for example, indirect energy demand, cost push inflation and supply bottlenecks.
These applications will all be developed in Excel.
In Part II, participants will
·         review the micro, macro and trade theories underlying typical CGE models;
·         be given an overview of parameter and elasticity estimation methods which typically provide the data on which CGEs are built;
·         be exposed to issues involved in using models for specific applications, such as the analysis of trade, public finance, regulation and environmental economics; and
·         present a mini-project analysing a real world issue using the techniques they have learned.
The applications use materials developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and adapted by the workshop instructors to suit Southern African economies. The models are run in GAMS, a programming language widely used in economy-wide policy modelling, to which participants will be introduced.
The workshop is targeted at those who wish to develop professional expertise in the area, as well as those who need to understand the potential and limitations of the use of these approaches without themselves becoming modellers. As such it should appeal to policy-makers and analystsin both the public and the private sectors, as well as to students and academics.
No previous exposure to the techniques is assumed, although participants without proven knowledge of the techniques covered in part I will not be admitted directly into part II. The techniques covered are numerically oriented and, while only basic mathematical skills are needed, the workshop will not appeal to those who prefer general discussion of issues to focussed analysis and measurement.
 
Fees and Applications
Fees for attending Part I are R6,000 and for Part II R14,000. Participants attending the combined course will receive a 10% discount. These fees exclude VAT (where applicable) but include teas and lunches during the workshop and transfers to and from O R Tambo International airport. For participants outside SADC the rates are R7,500 and R17,500 respectively with the same 10% discount applicable. Participants are responsible for their own travel and accommodation costs. TIPS can recommend guest houses to participants, but it will be their responsibility to make bookings.
Applications for participation should be sent to denves@xtra.co.nz and should be accompanied by a completed form (see below) stating background and reason for participation. Places are limited and will be allocated to qualified applicants on a first come first served basis. In the event of the workshop being over subscribed, applicants for the combined course will be given preference.
Applications should be received by February 7, 2010. Successful applicants will be notified and invoiced by February 14, 2010. Payment will be due by February 28, failing which reserved places will be offered to other applicants.
 
Workshop Program
Part I of the course will start at 08.30 on Monday 15 March 2010 and run for three days, ending at 17:00 on Wednesday 17 March. Part II will start at 8.30 on Thursday 18 March and run for 8 days, including Saturday 20 March. It will end at 13.00 on Friday 26 March.
 
Part I
Monday 15 March:                Introduction to Input Output Tables. Standard and extended IO multiplier Analysis
Tuesday 16 March:               IO pricing model: analysis of cost push inflation. Supply constraints.
Wednesday, 17 March:        Supply Use Tables and Multipliers. Social Accounting Matrices and Multipliers.
Part II
Thursday 18 March:              Introduction to Computable General Models. Modelling with GAMS.
Friday 19 March:                   Modelling with intermediate goods
Saturday 20 March:              Simple macroeconomic closure rules
Monday 22 March:                Modelling factor markets
Tuesday 23 March:               Modelling government. Modelling trade and the external account
Wednesday 24 March:         Using the IFPRI standard model
Thursday 25 March:              Applying the IFPRI model. Mini-projects.
Friday 26 March:                   Presentation of mini-projects. Moving forward.
 

Applications for participation should be sent to denves@xtra.co.nz and should be accompaniedby a completed application form (click on link below).

Download application form.

 

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