SUMMARY: The article discusses how net-zero emissions targets are vague and provides three ways to fix this. The details behind net-zero targets differ: some outline the reductions in CO2 emissions while negating other GHG emissions while others focus on direct emissions as opposed to supply chain emissions. Clarity on net-zero targets is essential because without more clarity, strategies behind net-zero targets cannot be understood; nor can their impact be evaluated. The article outlines three aspects which nations, companies and researchers need to clarify, these are their scope (which emissions sources and gases are covered); how they are deemed adequate and fair; and concrete road maps (which includes milestones an implementation plan and strategy to achieve and maintain targets) towards and beyond net-zero.

KEY FINDINGS: The article outlines a check list for rigours and clear net-zero plans:
Scope: What global temperature goal does this plan contribute to (to stabilise global temperature, or see it peak and decline)?; What is the target date for net zero?; Which greenhouse gases are considered?; How are greenhouse gases aggregated (GWP-100 or another metric)?; What is the extent of the emissions (over which territories, time frames or activities)?; What are the relative contributions of reductions, removals and offsets?; How will risks be managed around removals and offsets?
Fairness: What principles are being applied?; Would the global climate goal be achieved if everyone did this?; What are the consequences for others if these principles are applied universally?; How will your target affect others' capacity to achieve net zero, and their pursuit of other Sustainable Development Goals?
Roadmap: What milestones and policies will support achievement?; What monitoring and review system will be used to assess progress and revise the target?; Will net zero be maintained, or is it a step towards net negative?

SUMMARY: The study discusses the just transition transaction (JTT). The JTT mobilises blended finance to fund the accelerated phase out of coal, thereby accelerating a transition from coal to renewable energy.  The study seeks to understand the JTT, its architecture and potential to catalyse changes in the complex set of challenges facing South Africa’s electricity sector. The purpose of the study is to understand the potential of a JTT to accelerate the phase out of coal-fired power and to fund development projects. The scope of the case study is national. Its focus is on mitigation and the contribution that a just transition transaction can make in South Africa’s electricity sector. The study outlines the political economy of South Africa, details on national power producer Eskom, the relevant policies on climate and development, and the electricity sector specifically.

KEY FINDINGS / RECOMMENDATIONS: The study found that community ownership is crucial for the buy-in for renewable energy, with two types being community-owned, small-scale embedded generation and community-owned mini-grid.  Significant institutional innovation is needed to integrate community ownership with Eskom, which has had a monopoly on electricity supply. Further research should focus on Mpumalanga where community ownership models are piloted, and these will require a bottom-up, community- and locally-driven process. They also point to the need to co-develop a funding strategy with local communities, workers and municipalities, which could provide guidance of the JT Fund’s spending on development projects.

SUMMARY: The article focuses on the need to better understand how a just transition can shift development paths to achieve net zero emissions and eliminate poverty. The article begins by introducing and reviewing different theoretical approaches to theorising just transition. It builds a neo-Gramscian theory of just transition around concepts of ideology, hegemony, change agents and fundamental conditions. The coalition needs to gain broader support, establish a new cultural hegemony in support of just transitions and be able to transform the fundamental conditions of the 21st century. The article briefly considers how this better understanding can be applied to the practice of shifting development pathways. The article also presents some limitations to the study and discusses implication and further research directions.

KEY FINDINGS: The article proposes a theory of just transitions, in order to tackle the challenges of development and climate. The just transition theory is needed to shift from past development paths which brought high carbon, poverty, inequality. Building on neo-Gramscian theory, just transition is poised as an ideological element which acts as a unifying vision, around which an alliance of change agents coalesces. The article suggests that just transitions require coalitions of change agents coalescing around an ideological element - the just transition. A just transition requires organising broad front politics and finding ways to cooperate with others. This establishes a new world-view, or in neo-Gramscian terms, cultural hegemony. A just transition can provide the basis for a new social contract, ensuring human flourishing and a healthy planet. 

SUMMARY: The paper questions whether resistance to the expansion of coal can drive a just transition in South Africa. Transformative resistance requires creating "counter-power", which challenges coal on every level, builds new alliances that generate solidarity, and is potentially infused by imaginative visions of a "just transition". This could embed the anti-coal struggle in a social movement for an alternative development path. The paper examines oppositional agency in three social spaces: mining-affected communities, the environmental justice movement, and the labour movement.

KEY FINDINGS: Priorities differ for each social space: job losses for labour, dispossession of land and livelihoods for rural communities, and extractivism for the environmental justice movement. Anti-coal initiatives have the potential to build a "counter-power" which challenges inequality, and is potentially infused by visions of another world beyond coal. This could cohere into a vision of a just transition that is transformative.

SUMMARY: The draft Climate Change Bill was published by the Department of Environmental Affairs (now Department Environment, Forestry and Fisheries) on 8 June 2018 for public consultation for a period of 60 days. Subsequent to the publication of the Bill, the Department convened provincial workshops for stakeholder participation in all nine provinces and a number of bilateral engagements with business associations, non-governmental organisations,research institutions as well as sector departments in government were held.

KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: A NEDLAC engagement commenced on this version of the Bill as it was in line with the NEDLAC protocol. The Task Team comprised representatives of organised labour, organised business and government. The purpose of the task team was: to consider the proposed Climate Change Bill tabled by government,and engage with the contents; undertake a line by line analysis of the revised Climate Change Bill, 2020 with a view to reaching consensus on the provisions; and develop a report for submission to all relevant structures in Nedlac containing maximum areas of agreement, as well as areas of disagreement.

SUMMARY: A just transition transaction (JTT) in South Africa aims to address complex challenges of financing a transition away from coal. Accelerated decarbonisation of electricity isessential for mitigation globally and in South Africa. However, the national utility Eskom, a state-owned enterprise, is in crisis with majoroperational, structural and financial problems, including legacy debt of €25bn. How and to what extent can a just transitiontransaction catalyse deep, structural change that is required in South Africa’s electricity system and promote social justice?

KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: The architecture of the JTT needs to include a blended finance vehicle, combining international concessionary and domestic commercialfinance. Finance enables transition if it respects certain principles,promotes ambitious decarbonisation and assures compliance. A tough problem is whether such finance is provided at activity – or entity-level. The innovation proposed to fund social justice is that concessional value provides significant and predictable flow of funds into a Just Transition Fund. The JTT partially addresses Eskom’s financial challenges, and thereby the strain on the country’s fiscus against a background of increasingpublic debt. Significant mitigation on the scale of 1–1.5 Gt CO2-eq over thirty years is achievable. The transaction may be ofwider interest: Emerging economies with high coal dependenceand socio-economic risk during energy transition might translate lessons from South Africa’s JTT for their own contexts.

SUMMARY: Many in the Global South and some in the Global North cannot afford clean and sustainable energy, and many live in a state of energy poverty. A just energy transition is a chance for economies to start again with a clean slate and do things differently. In the Global South, where many cities are growing and where generation is inadequate, the opportunities abound. This policy brief argues that energy poverty and access must be brought boldly into the Just Transition debate. It offers an overview of current understanding of what constitutes a just energy transition and what is meant by energy poverty and access by giving a snapshot of the European Union and Sub-Saharan Africa context. 

KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: A just energy transition demands an integrated energy approach that is driven by protecting not only the environment but ensures that no one is left behind and that all have equal opportunities. This approach paves the way for new energy and technological systems that can be locally produced and owned and are supported by regulations that open spaces rather than closing down opportunities. It requires strong governance and political will to drive the transformation. Renewable energy industrialisation should take centre stage in ensuring future energy security and creating sustainable employment, especially for those that will be losing their jobs in the coal and electricity value chains. 

SUMMARY: This policy brief makes the case for a gender just transition in South Africa. It does so by: a) explaining why a gender just transition is vital by discussing the gendered impact of climate change; b) locating South African women within the broader society and within the economy; and c) providing a brief idea of what a gender just transition would look like.

KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: Adapting to, or mitigating, climate change impacts and impacts from related policy responses requires resources that are largely gained through participation in formal employment and access to wealth. Women are under-represented in the paid labour force and overrepresented in unpaid care work. This leaves them without the necessary resources for survival. The transition to a green economy thus requires taking active measures to include women in the paid economy, as well as recognising the value of the unpaid care work they perform. The state needs to play a driving role in the just transition. This means addressing structural inequities in the way public funding is provided to organisations. These funds can also be used as an incentive for organisations to train and hire women. Beyond that, the transition must be accompanied by structural changes in the gender-segmentation of sectors, with quotas used when necessary to correct imbalances that serve to entrench inequality. The success of a gender just transition depends on the state, business, labour, communities and other stakeholders being included in the policy discussions on equal footing. If the conversation is controlled by those with power, existing inequalities will be made worse. 

The bulletin is a review of quarterly trends, developments and data in the real economy, covering the GDP, employment, international trade, investment, and foreign direct investment.The Real Economy Bulletin - First Quarter 2022.

Main Bulletin:  The Real Economy Bulletin - Third Quarter 2021   

In this edition

Trends in GDP growth: The GDP reportedly shrank by 1.5% in the third quarter of 2021. That was the first major setback in the recovery from the COVID-19 depression. Most observers blamed the July unrest. This view is borne out by monthly figures for manufacturing, mining and retail sales, which showed a sharp dip in July followed by a degree of recovery through October. It seems likely, however, that the remarkably rapid surge in COVID-19 from late November will lead to a renewed downturn in December. Read more.

Employment: The Quarterly Labour Force Survey found a fall of 660 000 in total employment, or 4.4%. While the July unrest undoubtedly led to job losses, technical factors mean the survey findings likely overstate their extent. Read more.

International trade: The balance of trade has been strongly positive over the past five quarters, mostly as a result of high mining prices combined, until recently, with depressed petroleum costs. The auto industry, however, saw a steep fall in exports in the quarter. Read more.

Investment: Since the end of 2020, the recovery in investment has stalled well below pre-pandemic levels. Private investment, which accounts for the bulk of capital formation, is still down by more than state-owned company and government investment. That said, public investment has fallen almost continuously, although gradually, since well before the pandemic. Read more.

Foreign direct investment projects: The TIPS Foreign Direct Investment Tracker monitors FDI projects on a quarterly basis, using published investment information. In the third quarter of 2021, 11 projects were identified as foreign investment projects. The total investment value captured was about R45.4 billion, captured from data available from seven projects.While mining investments accounted for the bulk of investment this quarter, mostly due to a single large project by De Beers, there was also progress on Aspen’s investment in manufacturing COVID-19 vaccines in East London, with committed financing at R11  billion largely from multilateral institutions. There was an equal number of new and complete projects, and greenfield investments accounted for the largest amount of investment types. There were changes in the status of 10 projects previously captured in the Tracker, and these were updated accordingly. Read more.

Briefing Note: COP26 and support for South Africa: The United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow (COP26) took place in early November 2021. The conference aims to mobilise support and negotiate a sustainable climate future among global countries. The conference was attended by 25 000 delegates from about 200 countries, along with around 120 heads of state. Some of the agreements reached at the conference have important implications for South Africa. Read the Briefing Note online: COP26 and support for South Africa.

Briefing Note: Economic implications of the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement: At the start of the pandemic, the government took a conscious decision to maintain spending despite falling revenues in order to avoid further damage to the economy. That decision began to erode in 2021/22, and was fully reversed in the budget plans announced for 2022/3 in the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement. The resulting steep budget cuts are likely to prove a drag on growth. Read the Briefing Note online: Economic implications of the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement.