SUMMARY: This report explores the main challenges associated with the likelihood that South Africa’s coal production will plunge over the next five to 10 years. The report highlights some of the key issues that need to be thought through and discussed as part of ensuring a Just Transition to this future.

KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: Coal mining communities face a broad variety of impacts. Risks to livelihoods may become a political barrier, exacerbated by institutional dynamics and union resistance. Local stakeholders are more concerned about the local impacts than nationally focused stakeholders, indicating a difference in priorities. The current environmental and mining governance landscape is inadequate for addressing the social and environmental impacts of mining activities.

SUMMARY: Consensus between stakeholders resulted in a common vision to 2050 that places the Just Transition and the transition to a low-carbon future as central. Disagreements arose around ownership of infrastructure and the whether a zero carbon or carbon-neutral goal was appropriate.

KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: Three key recommendations are put forward. The first calls for the investigation of vulnerable jobs across sectors and formulating plans to absorb job losses. The second involves negotiating labour and social plans for decommissioning coal-fired power stations. The final recommendation is to implement two Just Transition pilots in Mpumalanga (energy) and Free State (agriculture).

SUMMARY: The report provides a detailed analysis of the capacity of vulnerable communities, workers and businesses to adjust to climate change-related impacts in the coal, metals, transport-based petroleum, agricultural value chain and tourism sectors. The report assesses the literature on vulnerability in South Africa and provides a review of the available data, primarily for the affected workers and, where relevant, communities and small businesses. It contributes to Sector Jobs Resilience Plans (SJRPs) by indicating both where developments warrant a programmatic response, and the needs of vulnerable groups as they seek a viable adjustment.

KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: The report identifies four key dimensions of vulnerability: income and financial assets; physical assets; human capital; and social capital. It then explores potential impacts around climate-change and identifies vulnerable groups within each value chain. It reviews climate change risks and policies aimed at mitigating them. Potential impacts on the value chain are analysed and the number, nature and location of livelihoods that stand to be threatened as a result. The report identifies the vulnerable groups within the value chain and analyses their scope in responding to potential effects on their jobs and businesses.

SUMMARY: Due to the environmental impact of coal, emerging cleaner and cheaper technologies and decline domestic and foreign demand, the coal value chain faces significant long-term threats. The report highlights where the employment risk in the value chain lies. The analysis identifies four vulnerable municipalities in Mpumalanga namely eMalahleni, Steve Tshwete, Msukaligwa and Govan Mbeki, and notes that coal miners are the most vulnerable in the value chain, as a result of their lack of financial resources, relatively low skills and limited mobility in the labour market.

KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: The report presents proposals to implement the Sector Jobs Resilience Plan for the coal value chain; revise guidelines for Social and Labour Plans to give communities and workers more voice; diversify local economies to create more sustainable economic activities; identify skills and needs of vulnerable workers; help vulnerable workers transition into new, sustainable activities; and provide income support for workers and communities during the transition.

SUMMARY: The transition to a low-carbon world will reshape the metals value chain from shifting demand for specific metals to the methods of production to access to essential inputs, such as energy and water. Climate-change impacts will likely affect both supply-side and demand-side dynamics. The most vulnerable groups comprise miners, their communities, and small businesses that supply goods and services to the dominant companies or to miners’ households. Because mining and refining are highly concentrated, nine districts are most vulnerable to changes in the metals value chain as the communities relying on the value chain are rural towns.

KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: Among proposed interventions are extending the Social and Labour Plans to smelters and refineries; promoting technological innovation to reduce long-run job losses; supporting municipalities in the platinum belt to diversify their economies and build long-term resilience and sustainability; strengthen active labour market measures to help miners transition to other livelihoods; providing income support for vulnerable workers and communities during the transition to new livelihoods.

SUMMARY: Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transport will most likely affect employment through a shift from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric and hybrid vehicles. The effects on employment will depend in part on the time required to move to electric vehicles in South Africa and abroad. The extent to which people within the value chain are vulnerable to job losses is influenced by the time frames for the transition to new automotive technologies, which remain highly uncertain. Vulnerable groups identified are: mechanics, partly because of their location in the informal sector, their median age, and a general lack of formal qualifications; workers in the auto industry; and taxi owners and drivers.

KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: The paper outlines three proposals, accelerating measures to incentivise adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles; enabling taxi owners to adopt dual-fuel technologies to reduce emissions and their carbon tax costs, and ultimately to shift to electric vehicles; promoting active labour market policies, especially retraining, to assist auto mechanics to transition to new occupations if necessary.

SUMMARY: Climate-change especially through higher temperatures, more frequent and severe droughts and heavier rainfall have already battered the agriculture sector and will continue to do so. A Sector Jobs Resilience Plan (SJRP) is needed for the agricultural value chain because climate change will have a severe impact on low-income households in the value chain. The report reviews the main dynamics in the agricultural value chain, in particular trends in production, climate-change related impacts, and the nature and resources available to the vulnerable groups. It then lays out the proposals for the SJRP, in each case providing an initial impact assessment and the main implementation phases and risks, which are derived from the underlying theory of change.

KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: The proposed SJRP for the agricultural value chain centres on, first, clarifying responsibility for implementing the SJRP within government; second, maximising the diffusion of technologies that can limit the job losses and income declines resulting from climate change for agricultural workers; third, promoting economic diversification in communities that rely disproportionately on farming including helping farmworkers transition to new livelihoods and providing income support and drought relief during severe droughts to farmworkers, emerging farmers and gardeners in the historic labour-sending regions.

SUMMARY: A Sector Jobs Resilience Plan (SJRP) is needed for the tourism value chain because it will likely be significantly affected by climate change. A downturn in tourism would hit low-income workers, small businesses and communities that depend on it for jobs and livelihoods. The report’s proposals focus on the workers in catering and accommodation, who depend principally on tourism. On average, they are poorly paid and have low levels of formal education, making it more difficult for them to find work if they lose their employment or livelihoods as a result of climate-change related impacts.

KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: The proposed SJRP for tourism centres on, among others, clarifying responsibility for implementation of the SJRP within government; maximising diffusion of technologies that can limit the extent of job losses and income declines resulting from climate change for people and businesses that depend on tourism; where job loss is unavoidable, helping tourism workers to transition to new livelihoods; providing income support to tourism workers who have to transition to new employment as a result of a climate-change-induced downturn in the value chain.

SUMMARY: The report examines the risks associated with a transition towards a low-carbon economy for South Africa’s government, municipalities, companies and financial institutions. The analysis not only quantifies the risks of South Africa’s transition but tries to forecast some potential benefits. The report also outlines the measures that South Africa and its partners can take to reduce climate-transition risk and avoid potential economy-damaging risk concentrations, and in so doing reduce the costs associated with the decarbonisation of the South African economy.

KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: Several significant findings emerge, et al, the cumulative impact of a global low-carbon transition between 2013 and 2035 could be more than $120 billion in present value terms; 75% of the risk and potential impact is due to factors, policies, and events, beyond the control of the South African government; but South Africa can still mitigate much of the climate-change risk if it urgently develops the fiscal, financial and policy tools required to shift transition risk away from parties without the capacity to bear it and to capture transition-related upside.

SUMMARY: The report offers an analysis of the current energy system and its dynamics in employment, the current international shift from coal to renewable energy, the drivers of an energy system change in South Africa such as the falling cost of renewable energy, climate change, coal production, addressing socio-economic challenges, and the urgent need to reform Eskom. It emphasises the importance of a transparent and people-centred Just Energy Transition led by social dialogue and consultation, ensuring equality in all forms.

KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: The main drivers for coal transitions are related to strengthening global climate action in line with the Paris agreement and pressures for emissions reduction, local climate-change policies, and lessening stress on the environment. A Just Energy Transition could lower electricity prices, increase energy access to remote communities through off grid renewable energy, lead to greater job creation, and reduce health and environmental costs if it is managed properly. South Africa can adopt lessons from other countries on the importance of stakeholder engagement to emphasise the economic argument for an energy transition, and proactive and efficient planning to manage the transition.

SUMMARY: The report draws on the experiences of various countries, including China, Canada, Indonesia, Germany, Asia, and South Africa, and the EU to analyse energy transitions and the future of thermal coal. The paper investigates the decline of thermal coal in the EU and USA and its dominance in China, and the experiences in Germany’s transition process, highlighting the need for region-specific agendas and policies cognisant of different markets. In exploring the transition, the paper looks at the structural changes and measures needed to ensure smooth and effective coal transitions.

KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: Coal has become a risky and unfavourable area of investment in comparison to renewable energy due to economic and environmental pressures. As the demand for coal exports decline, many coal-dependent economies will begin to prioritise domestic industries and guard against international price fluctuations, leaving coal exporters exposed to downward market trends and the national energy policies of international partners.

SUMMARY: The report looks at climate action policy and the developmental challenges South Africa faces in its approach to energy transition. These include high and rising unemployment and poverty levels in coal-dependent communities like Mpumalanga, education and skills deficits, lack of integrated industrial policy to boost labour-intensive sectors, and infrastructure constraints. To attain the objectives of the Paris agreement, total installed capacity must be 113 GW by 2030 and 240 GW by 2040 for electricity generation from wind and solar power, and renewable energy technologies should account for 67% of electricity by 2030 and 99% by 2050. .

KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: South Africa is dependent on fossil fuel for energy, particularly coal. Due to the Paris agreement, net investment in the coal sector has declined at a rate of 10% a year as coal becomes increasingly uncompetitive. Considering the possible effects of the transition on employment and economic activity, the report suggests creating worker transfer programmes and integrated multipurpose retraining programmes, as well as diversifying industry outside of the coal industry to boost the attractiveness of the region and increase opportunities for economic linkages into other areas.

SUMMARY: This book looks at the anticipated impact of climate change and the experiences of millions of people who are facing a climate disaster, focusing on Southern and South Africa. It takes its perspective from fenceline communities who have varying interests in a Just Transition. The book also recalls the Million Climate jobs campaign, discussing where the climate change jobs will materialise. Lastly the book examines the implications of a chaotic and unplanned transition out of coal, experienced around Arnot and Hendrina, two of the six power stations slated for decommissioning before 2030.

KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: The book recommends in broad terms that we should rapidly reduce fossil fuel burning to cut emissions to zero; look to the survival of the people through our democratic organisation and common control of resources; restore the land and its capacity to absorb and store carbon, including through the way we grow food; and c laim the climate debt owed by north to south and rich to poor.

SUMMARY: The study analyses the employment impacts of different plans for expanding electricity generation in South Africa’s power sector. The report assesses the skill attainment levels required for energy transition, and the potential for workers to transfer from the coal sector to the emerging renewable energy sector. Four scenarios, which consider two timelines, are presented. The short-term 2030 timeline is based on the expected electricity generation mix to meet the rising demand in the country and which is aligned with the National Development Plan 2030. The long-term timeline is based on electricity generation mix predicted to meet the projected growth in energy demand up to 2050, and considers the predicted decommissioning timeline of coal power plants.

KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: The study finds among other things that increasing the share of renewables can raise employment by 40 % (580 000 job years) in the period 2018 to 2030; with the shift from IRP 2016 to IRP 2018 an additional 1.3 million jobs are created economy-wide by 2050, 17% in the power sector by 2050; most job creation in renewable power generation is within the high-skilled labour group (educational attainment level above Grade-12), although employment is also created in other skill groups; and declining global demand for coal is the largest impact factor for coal mining employment.

SUMMARY: The Integrated Resource Plan is an electricity infrastructure development plan based on least-cost electricity supply and demand balance, taking into account security of supply and the environment. The plan is a living document and is revised regularly. The promulgated IRP 2010–2030 identified the preferred generation technology required to meet expected demand growth up to 2030. It incorporated government objectives such as affordable electricity, reduced greenhouse gas emissions, reduced water consumption, diversified electricity generation sources, localisation and regional development.

KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: Actions to be taken include undertaking a power purchase programme to help acquire capacity to supplement Eskom’s declining plant performance and to reduce the extensive use of diesel peaking generators in the immediate to medium term; extending Koeberg power plant’s design life by another 20 years; converting existing diesel-fired power plants to gas; and preparing for a nuclear build programme of 2 500 MW.

SUMMARY: The report provides a high level overview of the IPPPP and IPP Office activities for the latest available reporting period, including the contribution of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP).

KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: The IRP 2019 calls for 37 696 MW of new and committed capacity to be added between by 2030 from a diverse mix of energy sources and technologies as ageing coal plants are decommissioned and the country transitions to a larger share of renewable energy. By 2030, the electricity generation mix is set to comprise 33 364 MW (42.6%) coal, 17 742 MW (22.7%) wind, 8 288 MW (10.6%) solar photovoltaic (PV), 6 830 MW (8.7%) gas or diesel, 5 000 MW (6.4%) energy storage, 4 600 MW (5.9%) hydro, 1 860 MW (2.4%) nuclear and 600 MW (0.8%) concentrating solar power (CSP).

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SUMMARY: The document sets out actions to overcome the crisis at Eskom and put it on a new path of sustainability, in the form of a roadmap. Key steps in transforming the electricity supply system include the energy sources proposed by the 2019 Integrated Resource Plan. Actions to restore Eskom’s finances include government support. Measures are identified to reduce Eskom’s cost structure to enable provision of affordable electricity. Processes are outlined through which the restructuring of Eskom will take place, and through which a new transmission entity will be established.

KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: The reform of Eskom, through retiring end-of-life power stations and diversifying primary energy sources, will minimise the impact on the utility’s workers and in related industries and communities. In managing the transition, alternative economic activities will be implemented to economically sustain communities dependent on the power stations and associated coal mines. The reforms require capable leadership and personnel at Eskom and greater transparency in the governance of both Eskom Holdings and the subsidiaries. The roadmap notes “tough decisions will have to be made” and all institutions, organisations and citizens will have to play their part in achieving a sustainable electricity supply system.

SUMMARY: The report provides an annual review of Sam Tambani Research Institute (SATRI) activities for the period 2018 to 2019 (the 5th financial year in existence) on the socio-economic welfare of workers (and their communities) in the Mining, Energy, and Construction sectors in Southern Africa. SATRI has been sensitive to workers’ interests in influencing the country’s energy policy direction . The realisation was that the energy sector is a key employer and pivotal sector of the South Africa’s economy.

KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: The energy sector has important linkages with almost all other economic sectors of the country including mining, trade and industry. The concern is that the wrong energy policy could lead to direct job losses in the energy, mining and other sectors and limit government ability to use energy as a development tool in the quest to achieve National Development Plan objectives.

SUMMARY: The article examines the feasibility of an energy transition from a fossil-dominated system to a system based on renewable energy. The authors present five energy transition scenarios. Using an energy transition model and linear optimization, the authors model the scenarios to show how demand is met in each scenario and at what cost. The article investigates the optimal investment and generation technology mix needed to meet South Africa’s energy demand from 2015 to 2050. It is recommended that South Africa’s energy policy should be revised to factor solar PV and wind energy in its future electricity system.

KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: The article finds that a 100% renewable energy system is feasible in South Africa and is more cost competitive. The best policy scenario (BPS) would rely on solar power supplying about 71% and wind energy 28% of demand. Water consumption for electricity could fall by 99% by 2050 and a renewable energy system could be 50% cheaper when factoring in greenhouse gas emission costs. The number of direct energy jobs in the BPS could grow from around 210 000 in 2015 to nearly 408 000 by 2035, steadily reducing to over 278 000 by 2050 as growth rates stabilise, while RE can supply 95.6% electricity by 2050 .

SUMMARY: Professor Mark Swilling discusses the global renewable energy revolution, the public sector’s role in investment in renewables and how renewable energy has the potential to change social politics and economic power.

KEY FINDING / RECOMMENDATIONS: Prof Swilling believes community ownership of renewable energy is important. Countries such as Denmark and Germany, he notes, have had their renewable energy revolution driven by cooperatives. Policy shifts have occurred in favour of cooperatives. In South African what is lacking is community-based, public and inclusive ownership. A Just Transition will depend on the directionality of the renewable energy revolution, crucially an alternative to the corporate-driven ownership now taking place in South Africa and elsewhere.