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- Janet Wilhelm
Export Tracker - Q3 2023
South Africa’s merchandise exports experienced a 9.2% year-on-year decline from R570 billion in Q3 2022 to R517 billion (constant rand terms) in Q3 2023. Imports also saw a downturn in the third quarter of 2023, falling by 5.5% year-on-year, amounting to R478 billion. Despite the 9.2% decline in exports, South Africa managed to maintain a second consecutive trade surplus from the previous quarter, due to a less significant decline in imports, recording a trade balance of R29.8 billion.
Siyamthanda Nyulu
Communications Intern
Siyamthanda Nyulu studied a Bachelor of Journalism and Media Studies with Honours in Multimedia Studies. She furthered her studies by completing a Master's in journalism and media studies. She studied all her qualifications at Rhodes University. Her Master’s thesis analysed how Daily Maverick framed the VBS Mutual Bank heist in the years 2018-2020. She is passionate about creating digital content that will educate people about issues surrounding the economy, climate change and education.
NEVA MAKGETLA: The budget, growth and redistribution
Business Day - 12 March 2024 by Neva Makgetla (TIPS Senior Economist)
Government urged to provide tax holiday on electric vehicles
NEVA MAKGETLA: Industrial policy overlooks employment of women in certain sectors
Business Day - 27 February 2024 by Neva Makgetla (TIPS Senior Economist)
Industry study: Auto manufacturing 2023
TIPS industry studies aim to provide a comprehensive overview of key trends in leading industries in South Africa. For each industry covered, working papers will be published on basic economic trends, including value added, employment, investment and market structure; trade by major product and country; impact on the environment as well as threats and opportunities arising from the climate crisis; and the implications of emerging technologies. The studies aim to provide background for policymakers and researchers, and to strengthen our understanding of current challenges and opportunities in each industry as a basis for a more strategic response.
The automotive industry is one of South Africa’s core industries, accounting for almost 12.8% of total manufacturing output in 2022. Although considered a marginal player in the global automotive industry, South Africa is Africa’s leading passenger vehicle manufacturer and exporter of vehicles. In 2022, South Africa produced 555 889 units of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, accounting for 54.4% of Africa’s total vehicle production, although only 0.7% of total global production (OICA, 2023). South African-based vehicle original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and component suppliers’ manufacture predominately for the export market. Approximately 70% of all vehicles produced in South Africa are exported.
Industry Studies
International Trends in the Capital Goods Industry 2024
International Trade in South Africa's Automotive Industry 2024
Capital goods in South Africa 2024
Additional studies for other industries will be added when finalised.
Import Tracker - Q3 2023
South Africa maintained a trade surplus in the third quarter of 2023, at R41 billion, up from R10 billion in the second quarter of 2023, but lower than the R53 billion from the third quarter of 2022. Exports declined by R41 billion to R529 billion in the year to the third quarter of 2023, while imports declined by R29 billion to R487 billion in the same period. The export decline was in part driven by a R42 billion decline in coal exports, with volumes declining by six billion kilograms in the year to the third quarter of 2023. The decline in imports was driven by decreasing local demand for diesel and petrol, which saw the value of both decline by R10 billion and R11 billion respectively, while volumes declined by almost one billion litres apiece.
FDI Tracker Q3 2023
In the third quarter of 2023, the Tracker added 28 projects that are at varying stages of development. The total pledged investment value is R53.5 billion recorded from 11 projects. (The investment values of the remaining 17 projects have not yet been disclosed.) There are five projects that reported employment opportunities that sum up to 7533 jobs, of which 887 are permanent and 6646 are temporary. The majority of these jobs (5200) result from the construction of Amazon’s headquarters. Monitoring further updated 10 pre-existing projects in the Tracker.
Solar, battery, inverter imports surged to R70bn in 2023 as wind turbines recovered from two-year lull
Engineering News - 4 March 2024 by Terence Creamer
The Real Economy Bulletin - Fourth Quarter 2023
Main Bulletin: The Real Economy Bulletin - Fourth Quarter 2023
In this edition
GDP growth: The GDP eked out a 0.1% increase in the fourth quarter of 2023, reversing the decline in the third quarter. For the year, growth came to 0.6%, driven almost exclusively by business and personal services. Mining was flat for the year, manufacturing shrank by 0.1%, and agriculture by 0.4%. Most of the growth occurred in the first half of 2023, with losses in the second half. Read more.
Employment: Employment grew by 800 000 or almost 5% in 2023, far more rapidly than the GDP or the working-aged population. The informal sector expanded particularly rapidly, but formal employment also climbed. In contrast, domestic work continued to stagnate. Construction employment reportedly grew particularly rapidly, apparently mostly due to investment in housing rather than infrastructure. Read more.
International trade: South Africa maintained a trade surplus in the fourth quarter of 2023, but its value fell by half from the previous quarter. Platinum and coal revenues dropped sharply as world prices plummeted in the past year. Still, mining revenues remain well above pre-pandemic levels in constant rand terms, which contributed to the resilience of the South African economy in the face of domestic and external headwinds. In manufacturing, the auto industry accounted for most of the increase in exports, followed at a considerable distance by food and metal products. Read more.
Investment and profitability: Investment climbed 4% in 2023, for the second year of growth since the pandemic downturn. It was still well below pre-pandemic levels, however. State-owned companies remain a weak point. At industry level, investment has climbed steadily in mining and manufacturing, as well as most other sectors, since 2021. It remains depressed in electricity and water, however. Read more.
Foreign direct investment projects: The TIPS Foreign Direct Investment Tracker monitors FDI projects quarterly, using published investment information. The Tracker added 23 projects in the fourth quarter of 2023. Projected investment for the quarter amounts to R476.7 billion, recorded from 10 projects. The other 13 projects have not yet reported the respective project values. The Tracker updated 27 existing projects this quarter. Read more
Briefing Note: The budget and industrial policy- by Neva Makgetla. The recent budget was not good news for industrialisation. In particular, it brought deep cuts to funding for the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition (dtic), especially for industry-level incentives. More broadly, the economic vision that framed the national budget downplayed efforts to promote more inclusive industrialisation. Read the Briefing Note online: The budget and industrial policyBriefing Note: CBAM and South African exports - by Seutame Maimele. Although the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is pursuing the critical aim of reducing carbon emissions and to avoid carbon leakage, arguably it throws unfair burdens on the Global South. In response, the South African government has begun to challenge CBAM in any form and at many forums. At the same time, government and exporters have to find ways to mitigate the impacts of CBAM by developing the required systems to report on greenhouse gas emissions and finding ways to reduce the carbon intensity of exports. Read the Briefing Note online: CBAM and South African exports