Business Day - 9 December 2019 by Neva Makgetla (TIPS Senior Economist)

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The Politics of Trade in the Era of Hyperglobalisation
A Southern African Perspective

Rob Davies
Friday 28 February 2020: 14:00 - 16:15

From 13:30 Arrival and coffee / tea
14:00 - 14:00 Opening and welcome by chairperson: Dr Faizel Ismail
14:15 - 15:15 Presentation by Dr Rob Davies
15:15 - 15:45 Discussants: Ambassador Xavier Carim and Sanusha Naidu
15:45 - 16:15 Discussion
16:15 Closure and light snacks
Copies of the book will be on sale after the launch

Background

The outcomes of trade negotiations have never been shaped by rational considerations of relative advantage alone - whether comparative or competitive. Struggle and competition have always profoundly affected trade outcomes. This book presents an analysis of the political economy of trade negotiations over the past quarter century on two main fronts: the multi-lateral and those pertaining to regional integration on the African continent. The book covers the evolution of the multi-lateral trading system, the rise of the World Trade Organization, the impact and outcomes of the global economic crisis, to the current crisis of multi-lateralism. The second part of the book focuses on regional integration in Africa as a tool for industrialisation and development.

About the Speakers

Rob Davies: Dr Rob Davies has been involved in international trade and regional integration for over 25 years, as the former Minister of Trade and Industry, the Deputy Minister of Trade and Industry, and as a member of the parliamentary portfolio committee on trade and industry.

Faizel Ismail: Dr Faizel Ismail is the Director of the Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance at UCT, a Professor at the UCT School of Economics, and a TIPS Research Associate. He has previously been an advisor to the Department of Trade and Industry on International Trade and Special Envoy on the African Growth and Opportunity Act, and served as the Ambassador Permanent Representative of South Africa to the WTO (2010-2014).

Xavier Carim: Ambassador Xavier Carim is the Deputy Director General responsible for the International Trade and Economic Development Division at the Department of Trade and Industry. He was previously the former South African Permanent Representative of South Africa to the WTO.

Sanusha Naidu: Sanusha Naidu is a foreign policy specialist based with the Institute for Global Dialogue. She has previously worked for the Open Society Foundation and Fahamu, and is widely published on Africa's foreign policy.

Date: Friday 28 February 2020
Time: 14h00 - 16h15
Venue: TIPS Boardroom, 234 Lange Street, Nieuw Muckleneuk, Pretoria
RSVP by email: daphney@tips.org.za to confirm attendance

Main Bulletin: The Real Economy Bulletin - Third Quarter 2019  

In this edition

GDP growth: For the second time this year, the GDP contracted in the third quarter of 2019. In the past two years, the economy has reportedly shrunk in four quarters, underscoring the effects of the slowdown. Reported GDP growth has also become unusually erratic, with the economy growing reasonably strongly when it was not actually shrinking. Read more.

Employment: Total employment remained virtually unchanged over the past year. Construction lost 160 000 jobs, however, which was offset by growth in other industries. Quarterly figures are hard to interpret because they are not seasonally adjusted. Read more.

International trade: In constant rand, South African exports have increased slightly since 2014, while imports are lower than they were five years ago despite some increases in the past two years. Read more.

Investment and profitability: Private investment recovered over the year to September 2019, with a particularly sharp increase in the second to third quarter 2019. This growth reversed a decline over the previous three years. In contrast, both the government and state-owned corporations (SOCs) saw a fall in investment. Read more.

Foreign direct investment projects: The TIPS FDI Tracker tracks foreign direct investment projects on a quarterly basis, using published information. In the third quarter of 2019, 16 projects were added to the FDI Tracker. Investment values were available for 11 of these projects, and the pledged value came to R13 billion. Read more.

Briefing note: Responding to the economic slowdown: The GDP has for the second time this year slipped into negative territory. Since 2015 the economy has struggled to break free from sluggish performance. An appropriate policy response, however, requires an accurate diagnostic. In particular, we need to understand why growth has slowed steadily since before 2011, not only in South Africa but globally. Read the briefing note online: Responding to the economic slowdown.

Briefing note: SAA by the numbers: In the first week of December 2019, South African Airways (SAA) was put into business rescue.This briefing note provides an overview of its financial position, which left government with no other realistic option. Read the briefing note online: SAA by the numbers. 

Customs are charged with ensuring maximum trade facilitation and decreasing the time and costs associated with clearing consignments into and out of the country. Non-compliance and customs fraud are, however, on the rise through multiple channels including misdeclaration of goods, under and overvaluation, misrepresentation of country of origin, round tripping, and counterfeit goods. As such, customs have to balance the competing needs of improved trade facilitation with improved compliance necessary to protect domestic industry.

This report provides background into the key approaches to customs fraud management, and outlines the processes as well as work done by the South African Revenue Service (SARS)to improve the customs environment. The report finds that as these management processes improve, there will be less physical control at border posts. While South Africa is still a way from being in such a position, the systems and the process are in place to move in that direction, and there is an important role for the Department of Trade and Industry (the dti) to play to support the decrease of customs fraud.

In the second quarter of 2019, 17 new projects were added to the FDI Tracker. Investment values were available for 11 of these projects, and the sum of these investments were R25.1 billion. A total of 5 376 jobs were recorded from five projects where employment data was available. Of this total, 676 related to permanent employment, while 4 700 jobs were of a temporary nature. There was one existing project updated in the Tracker this quarter.   

Business Day - 25 November 2019 by Neva Makgetla (TIPS Senior Economist)

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This paper addresses which measures South Africa can implement to achieve and manage a meaningful and sustainable transformation of the country’s transport sector. Focussing on the passenger transport industry, it investigates the state of transport in South Africa and reviews existing measures undertaken towards transforming the sector using the improve and shift framework, followed by key recommendations for each aspect. The paper concludes that South Africa has the opportunity and capability to develop an effective, integrated and sustainable passenger transport system.

Business Day - 11 November 2019 by Neva Makgetla (TIPS Senior Economist)

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Climate change impacts are being felt in low- and middle-income countries at an ever-increasing pace. The high dependency on climate-sensitive sectors as well as high vulnerability to climate change raise the need for quick responses and action. These climate events wreak havoc, ripping apart the fabric of societies, economies, and lives. Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) are vital components of economies and particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

This paper explores three inter-related themes: the material risks that small businesses face, the state of adapta­tion in low- and middle-income countries, and potential recommendations on a way forward. It is part of a series of background papers commissioned by the Global Commission on Adaptation.