The Daily Maverick - 21 June 2019 by Trudi Makhaya (Economic Adviser to President Cyril Ramaphosa)

Read online at Daily Maverick, 

The trade balance declined in the first quarter of 2019. At the end of the quarter, the deficit was R0.3 billion. With the exception of the first quarter of 2017, South Africa has seen a trade deficit in the first quarter for the 10 years between 2010 and 2019.

Lesego Moshikaro-Amani joined TIPS in July 2019. Lesego earned a Master’s degree in Economics specialising in Development Economics from the University of Cape Town (UCT). Prior to joining TIPS, Lesego worked as a Crisis Response Fund (CRF) researcher and data analyst at CIVICUS and as a graduate research assistant at the Land Restitution Evaluation Study (LRES), launched by SALDRU.  Her expertise lies in industrial policy, battery energy storage value chains and the emerging sector of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in South Africa, including a strong emphasis on skill development within the NEV industry. Other areas of focus include skills development for industry and promoting employment in the development of SMMEs.

Liako Mofo joined TIPS in July 2019.  She holds a Master’s Degree in Development Economics from the University of Sussex, United Kingdom, and a Bachelor’s Degree in Statistics and Economics  as well as a Certificate in Statistics, both from the National University of Lesotho. She has more than 16 years of experience in economic research, policy development and analysis, development of national strategic development plans, sector-specific investment plans and project cycle management in the public sector, and development in the regional and international context.

Prior to joining TIPS, she served as an Economist at the Lesotho Millennium Development Agency (LMDA) working in collaboration with the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), a United States Government Development Agency, to develop high-impact development projects for funding. In this role, she provided strategic leadership focusing on identifying critical constraints to economic growth; economic analysis of policy reform; and cost-benefit analysis of proposed projects, with attention to the cost-effectiveness of the investments and their impact on inclusive economic growth and poverty reduction. While with LMDA, she also served in the Projects Control Office, acquiring skills on project risk management.

She spent 14 years in the public sector working in the Policy and Strategic Planning Departments and the Economic Planning Units in different government ministries, where she guided policy development, produced the national strategic development plan, undertook economic research, and managed development programmes in education, energy, mining and water sectors. Her work also involved public financial management within the same sectors.

This paper looks at the future of South Africa-United Kingdom trade relations in the post-Brexit period. It provides a brief background and looks at the history of trade relations until the onset of democracy in1994. It then looks at SA-UK trade relations since 1994, including the negotiations the led to the Southern African Development Community-Economic Partnership Agreement. This sets the context for the current SA-UK negotiations for a post-Brexit trade arrangement. The question this paper seeks to address is: will the post-Brexit period be characterised by an increasingly aggressive Britain striving to re-assert its power in the World and advance its mercantilist interests in South Africa and Africa, or shall the world see a new idealist Britain seeking to increase cooperation in its own region and the world, re-building multilateral governance based on the values and principles of inclusivity, equity and sustainable development? It will be argued that South Africa should expect the first scenario but also prepare to influence the UK towards the second scenario.  Some policy recommendations will be made both for South Africa and Africa in their future post-Brexit trade and investment relations.

The paper will become part of a series of research papers produced in co-operation between the Centre for Comparative Law in Africa at UCT, the Nelson Mandel School of Public Governance at UCT and TIPS.

Business Day - 26 June 2019 by Gaylor Montmasson-Clair (TIPS senior economist)

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Business Day - 25 June 2019 by Neva Makgetla (TIPS Senior Economist)

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Or read as a PDF.

Engineering News 18 June 2019 by Nadine James

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Business Day - 27 May 2019 by Faizel Ismail (Designate director of the Nelson Mandela School of Governance and TIPS research fellow)

Read online at Business Day

Main Bulletin: The Real Economy Bulletin - First Quarter 2019  

In this edition

GDP growth: The GDP declined in the first quarter of 2019, while the economy lost jobs. The downturn continues the trend of volatile growth rates that began five years ago. Previous quarterly downturns in this period, however, were driven by agriculture; in contrast, the past quarter saw a broad-based decline. The briefing note on the economic slowdown explores factors behind these trends. Read more.

Employment: Employment in the real economy fell by 160 000 jobs in the year to the first quarter of 2019. It is now at the same level it was in 2015. Manufacturing and construction accounted for the bulk of the net loss in jobs. In the rest of the economy, community and social services lost more than 200 000 jobs while other sectors gained employment. Overall, employment as a whole lost jobs for only the second time since 2010. Read more. 

International trade: In constant rand terms, South African exports have barely grown since 2013. In US dollars, they climbed from 2016 to mid-2018, but fell more than 10% in the six months to March 2019. Nonetheless, an even faster decline in imports – due in part to slow growth and in part to fairly low petroleum prices – meant that the balance of payments remained positive, although a deficit emerged in the first quarter of 2019. Read more.

Investment and profitability: The 2% fall in investment from the year to the first quarter 2018 to the year to the first quarter 2019 was a central factor behind the economic downturn. The sharpest decline emerged for public investment, although both state-owned enterprises and government departments reported a recovery in the first quarter of 2019 alone. Private investment, in contrast, grew slightly year on year, but contracted sharply from the fourth quarter of 2018 to the first quarter of 2019. Read more.  

Foreign direct investment projects: The TIPS FDI Tracker tracks foreign direct investment projects, analysing new and updated projects quarterly. Based on media monitoring, it added 14 new projects in the past quarter. Ten of these were in manufacturing, and five were greenfield projects. Six projects previously captured in the Tracker have been updated, with two reaching completion. Read more. 

Briefing note: The economic slowdown: The first quarter of 2019 saw a convergence of poor economic data. The GDP fell by 0.8%; investment, by 1.1%; and exports by 2%. Employment dropped by 1.4%, or 240 000 jobs. Seasonal job losses are not uncommon in the first quarter, but from 2010 to 2018 they averaged just 0.1%, so 2019 saw a significantly larger fall. Read the briefing note online: The economic slowdown.

Briefing note: African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) - Supporting inclusive growth and transformation: The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) requires 22 countries to ratify its adoption and submit proof/deposit the instruments of ratification with the African Union (AU) for it to come into effect. On 29 April that happened, and on 30 May 2019 the free trade agreement came into effect. Read the briefing note online: African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA): Supporting inclusive growth and transformation.