Development Dialogue: Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) and Green Economy Coalition (GEC)
Agenda
9:30 - 9:45: Opening and Welcome
9:45 - 12:00: Presentation and discussion of research findings
Regional integration in Southern Africa - A platform for electricity sustainability: Gaylor Montmasson-Clair and Bhavna Deonarain (TIPS)
South African municipalities and renewable energy - New roles and opportunities: Louise Scholtz (WWF-SA)
Tea
Energy empowerment - A community-based approach to the ownership and delivery of renewable energy: Tasneem Essop (representing EDI)
From user to prosumer - Energy interventions at the firm level: Julie Wells and Ndivhuho Raphulu (NCPC-SA)
12:00 - 13:00 Panel discussion with presenters, facilitated by Minnesh Bipath (SANEDI)
13:00: Lunch
Background
South Africa's electricity sector is in the midst of a multifaceted transformation. Renewable energy technologies are aggressively entering the market at both the utility- and small-scale levels. Private sector players and prosumers are equally reshuffling the cards of electricity generation. The national grid is oscillating between supply problems and overcapacity while South Africa's neighbours are targeting self-reliance. With the ongoing problems experienced by Eskom, the country's vertically-integrated national power utility, would the solutions to South Africa's electricity issues lie elsewhere? Would deeper regional integration represent a sustainable solution to South Africa's woes? Should municipalities rather play a larger role in South Africa's electricity sector? How should users, be it households and firms, position themselves? The Development Dialogue will share research undertaken on some of these issues and consider the linkages between these different levels of interventions as well as their impacts on the national electricity sector.
See Research
Regional integration in Southern Africa: A platform for electricity sustainability
New roles for South African municipalities in renewable energy - A review of business models
Agenda
9:30 - 9:45: Opening and Welcome
9:45 - 12:00: Presentation and discussion of research findings
Spatial industrial policy, SEZs and cities in SA: Shirley Robinson and Roland Hunter (Cities Support Programme)
Spatial Dimensions of SEZs and secondary cities: Christopher Wood and Asanda Fotoyi (TIPS)
Tea break
Urbanization, structural transformation and rural-urban linkages in South Africa: Rob Davies (representing IFPRI)
Industrial Development and spatial planning - lessons from eThekweni Municipality: Neva Makgetla and Mbongeni Ndlovu (TIPS)
12:00 - 13:00 Panel Discussion with presenters: Urbanisation and industrialisation
Lunch: 13:00
Background
South Africa's high rate of poverty and unemployment are significantly worse in the rural areas of the country, in particular the former homelands. There has as a result been an ongoing migration out of rural areas into cities and towns. What happens to people when they arrive in urban areas? Are there jobs and economic opportunities; or does the poverty persist but in a new setting? How are cities managing the influx of people and how does the changing urban / rural dynamic impact on structural transformation in the economy?
The Development Dialogue will share research undertaken on some of these issues and consider support programmes for spatial industrial development as well as the linkages between the spatial dimension and industrial development in urban areas.
AGENDA
Chairperson: Nitin Gunga (the dti)
9:00 - 9:15 Opening and Welcome: Eustace Mashimbye (CEO: Proudly South African)
9:15 - 11:30 Presentation and discussion of research findings
Retail and manufacturing: Andrew Mukandila (the dti)
Supplier development in the retail sector: Dave Kaplan (UCT and TIPS Research Associate)
Tea break
Adverse Inclusion: Tracy Ledger (TIPS Research Associate)
The spread of supermarkets in the SADC region: Impact on competition and on suppliers: Reena das Nair (CCRED)
Chairperson: Saul Levin (TIPS)
11:30 - 12:30 Panel Discussion: Does South Africa need a retail sector charter or a code of good practice?
Lunch: 12:30
BACKGROUND
Large general grocery retailers and supermarkets have greatly increased their market coverage in South Africa both spatially and in customer numbers over the past 20 years. Estimates are that they now control some 90% of all formal food sales, and more than 60% of total retail food sales. South African-owned supermarket chains have also grown exponentially in the rest of SADC.
Supermarkets are increasingly the gatekeepers between suppliers and end-use customers. They are often the only, or the most important, way in which suppliers, particularly smaller suppliers, can access customers. As more and more consumers purchase most or all of their food from supermarkets, so the supermarkets' power in the chain relative to other participants increases. The procurement practices of supermarkets therefore have a bearing on both small and large businesses, and can contribute or negatively impact on industrialisation efforts.
The colloquium will share research undertaken on the impact of supermarkets, their linkages to the manufacturing sector and supplier development as well as exploring the pros and cons of a code of conduct for the retail sector.
Agro-processing: Manufacturing Circle input to the dti regarding opportunities for transformation and growth through an APSS solution - Philippa Rodseth
Aro-processing: An opportunity for manufacturing growth - value chains - Neva Makgetla and Mbongeni Ndlovu
Manufacturing Circle Investment Tracker (MCIT) Q1 & Q2 findings: Xhanti Payi
In South Africa, the desired outcomes of industrial policy are ultimately sustained, sustainable and increasingly inclusive growth. Can agro-processing contribute to these outcomes through accelerated investment and employment creation? What contribution can it make to government's objectives of support for smaller producers and black industrialists, maintaining food security, and enhancing productivity, competitiveness and industrial diversification? What obstacles does it face?
The Manufacturing Circle Investment Tracker (MCIT) is a quarterly survey of investment taking place by businesses in the manufacturing sector. It is an indexed survey that highlights the growth or contraction in the level of investment by firms. The data on the findings from Q1 & Q2 2017 will be presented.
Presenters
Neva Makgetla is a senior economist at TIPS. Makgetla has published widely on the South African economy and worked for many years in government, most recently as Deputy Director General for Policy in the Economics Development Department, as well as in COSATU.
Mbongeni Ndlovu: Mbongeni is an economist at TIPS. Prior to working at TIPS he worked at Genesis Analytics and the South African Reserve Bank. He has Master of Science Degrees in African Studies and Development Economics from the University of Oxford. He also holds a BSC in Economics from the University of KwaZulu-Natal.
Philippa Rodseth is the Executive Director of the Manufacturing Circle. She has previously worked at Spoke Consulting and FNB. She has an MBA and a B.Arch from Wits.
Xhanti Payi is the MD at Nascence Advisory & Research, a strategy consulting and research outfit. He has worked as an analyst at Investec Wealth & Investment, an Economist at Stanlib Asset Managers and at Standard Bank Corporate and Investment Banking. Payi has academic training from UCT and the University of London.
Date: Thursday 17 August 2017
Time: 9h30 – 12h00
Presentations on two recent books
Inclusive Business in Agriculture. What, how and for whom? Critical insights based on South African cases: presentation by Wytske Chamberlain (University of Pretoria)
An Empty Plate: Why we are losing the battle for our food system, why it matters, and how we can win it back: presentation by Tracy Ledger (TIPS Research Associate)
Discussant: Ms Ncumi Mcata-Mhlauli, Chief Director: Agro-processing, Department of Trade and Industry
Background
Inclusive business is hailed as a win-win scenario for the development of poor communities; yet there is little insight into how these inclusive businesses work and, more importantly, for whom. Wytske Chamberlain examines the structures of IBs, the actors involved and aims to answer the question, are they effectively inclusive of smallholder farmers?
An Empty Plate analyses the state of the South African agri-food system. Tracy Ledger demonstrates how this system is perpetuating poverty, threatening land reform, and entrenching inequality with negative outcomes for our social fabric.
Presenters
Wytske Chamberlain is a PhD Candidate in Rural Development, University of Pretoria, where she conducts research on inclusive businesses. She holds an Honours degree in Economic Geography from Utrecht University and a Masters degree in Human Geography from the University of the Witwatersrand. Wytske is also the Coordinator of the Regional Focal Point Africa - Land Matrix Initiative, which monitors large-scale land acquisitions.
Tracy Ledger is a TIPS Research Associate. She is a Development Economist. She has Honours and Masters degrees in Economics and Agricultural Economics from the University of the Witwatersrand and Stellenbosch respectively, and a PhD in Economic Anthropology from the University of the Witwatersrand. Tracy has worked in macroeconomic analysis, development policy analysis and design, and the management of development interventions. She has a particular interest in agri-food systems, small farmer inclusion and food security.
Presentations
Practical Ideas in Heterodox Industrial Policy Thinking: Sandy Lowitt (TIPS Research Fellow)
South Africa's Industrial Policy - by the Numbers: Neva Makgetla (TIPS Senior Economist)
Discussant: Garth Strachan (DDG: Industrial Development Division, Department of Trade and Industry)
Background
Industrial Policy in the 21st century has fundamentally changed in nature. (Largely) gone is the achingly abstract discussion of the motivations behind industrial policy and whether it is a good idea or not. In its place is a recognition that industrial policy is undertaken everywhere in the world, even if it is not openly called industrial policy. It is now widely accepted that industrial policy is a response to market failure just as education policy or health policy are responses to such failures. This normalisation of industrial policy has allowed economists to stop focusing on defending and justifying the pursuit of industrial policy (especially in lagging economies). Instead they can now focus on extant, fine-grained, real world problems facing incumbent policymakers operating in difficult situations. Through this lens, problems with industrial policy design and implementation are viewed - not as insurmountable - but merely the normal course of business which any sensible policy framework must address.
The presentation by Sandy Lowitt will cover her recent Paper on Industrial Policy and she will present three pragmatic industrial policy implementation ideas based on recent heterodox thinking, which is the subject of her recent Policy Brief.
The presentation by Dr Makgetla will look at the overall patterns of industrial development since 1994 and cover key sectors in the economy that have been targeted for industrial policy. Given the shifts in the context of manufacturing since the transition to democracy, a review of key trends in the sector over the past two decades should yield important insights for policy in the coming period. Key questions include the evolution of the structure of production and investment within manufacturing; the impact of the commodity boom and exchange-rate fluctuations on manufacturing profitability and production; and the shifts in ownership and control since 1994.
Presenters
Sandy Lowitt is a TIPS Research Associate. She holds a Master of Commerce from Wits University in Economics. She established the Economics Department in the Gauteng Provincial Government in 1995 and remained at with GPG until 2006. While specialising in economic research and industrial policy and strategy she also created and ran Blue IQ, which delivered projects such as the Gautrain, the Innovation hub and the automotive supplier park. Since leaving the government, Sandy has remained active in public policy research and strategy development.
Neva Makgetla is a senior economist at TIPS. Makgetla has published widely on the South African economy and worked for many years in government, most recently as Deputy Director General for Policy in the Economics Development Department, as well as in COSATU.
Presentation and Panel Discussion
Rod Crompton and Judith Fessehaie (CCRED)
Simon Roberts (CCRED)
Neva Makgetla and Asanda Fotoyi
Discussant: Edwin Ritchkin
Background
The presentation by Rod Crompton will discuss the impact of public procurement policy on Transnet's procurement of 1064 railway locomotives as an instrument to develop local rail rolling stock manufacturing capacity in South Africa. The research forms part of a broader research programme under the Industrial Development Research Programme (IDRP) of the Department of Trade and Industry.
Neva Makgetla and Asanda Fotoyi will present findings on the factors that tend to exclude small business from government procurement.
Presenters
Rod Crompton: Dr Rod Crompton is an independent consultant specialising in industrial policy, energy and economic regulation and a part-time research associate at TIPS. He has a PhD in industrial policy from the University of Natal. He was previously a full-time board member of the National Energy Regulator (Nersa) for 11 years and was senior manager at the Department of Minerals and Energy responsible for energy, hydrocarbons and energy planning for nine years. He has also worked at the Department of Trade and Industry and was managing director of the Minerals and Energy Policy Centre.
Simon Roberts: Professor Simon Roberts is the Director of the Centre of Competition, Regulation and Economic Development (CCRED). He is a professor at the University of Johannesburg, in the Economics and Econometrics Department. He held the position of Chief Economist and Manager of the Policy & Research Division at the Competition Commission from November 2006 to December 2012. Prior to joining the Competition Commission he was Associate Professor of Economics at the University of the Witwatersrand, where he established and directed the Corporate Strategy and Industrial Development research programme examining firm decision-making and economic outcomes.
Neva Makgetla and Asanda Fotoyi are economists at TIPS. Makgetla has published widely on the South African economy and worked for many years in government, most recently as Deputy Director General for Policy in the Economics Development Department, as well as in COSATU. Asanda Fotoyi worked at Statistics South Africa before joining TIPS in 2016.
Discussant from the dti
Background
Baba-Tamana Gqubule: Baba has a Masters in Development Studies from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London and a Bachelor of Economics Honours degree from Rhodes University. She has experience as a Policy Analyst at the Economic Development Department.
Xhanti Payi: Xhanti has worked as an analyst at Investec Wealth & Investment, an Economist at Stanlib Asset Managers and was a Country Risk Manager at Standard Bank (CIB). Payi studied at UCT and the University of London. Currently, Payi is the MD at Nascence Advisory & Research, a strategy consulting and research outfit.
Christopher Wood: Chris is a TIPS economist focusing on trade and industry policy. He previously worked as a researcher in economic diplomacy at the South African Institute of International Affairs.
Kelello Mashiane: Kelello is a researcher at TIPS. She holds a bachelor’s degree from UNISA, and worked as a research assistant at the Economic Development Department, where she worked on several data collection projects and provided research support to the Chief Economist.
Moleboheng Ntene: Moleboheng is a Senior Economist at the South African Reserve Bank in the Economic Research and Statistics Department (Balance of Payments division). She is primarily responsible for monitoring financial account flows and conducting other research related to the balance of payments. She has a Masters Degree in Economic Development and Policy Issues from the University of Johannesburg.
Date: Wednesday 8 February 2017
Time: 13h30 – 16h00
Venue: TIPS Boardroom, 234 Lange St, Nieuw Muckleneuk, Pretoria
RSVP by email: Daphney@tips.org.za to confirm attendance.
Presentation and Panel Discussion:
Faizel Ismail – TIPS and UCT: AGOA - A Game of Chicken
Malose Letsoalo – Department of Trade and IndustrY
Christopher Wood – TIPS: Making the Best of AGOA through Export Promotion Policies
Tinashe Kapuya - Agricultural Business Chamber: An Agriculture Industry Perspective
Background
The importance of exporting to the US for any developing country cannot be downplayed. Exports to the largest economy in the world along with various support measures has been of cruciall importance to countries such as Japan and South Korea during their industrialisation, more recently for China. The Africa Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA) recognises the potential benefits of the US market and is a mechanism to encourage African economies to export into that market. While AGOA is a unilateral agreement by the US it gives benefits to the recipient countries and also is a means to encourage investment by US firms into Africa. The potential to support industrial development is therefore significant and is part of the motivation to extend AGOA by 10 years. Outside of the oil exporters, South Africa is the largest exporter through AGOA. South Africa exports value added products including automotive components and vehicles through AGOA. The recently adopted AGOA, however, specifically required a review of South Africa, mainly as a result of the requirement for poultry and pork imports from the US into the country. The poultry issue has been resolved and a number of compromises reached. The threat of the provisions of the Act that could exclude South Africa still remain. The benefits of South Africa being part of AGOA are applicable to both South Africa and the US,; it is therefore desirable on the side of both countries to find the compromises that would enable that.
The TIPS paper to be presented also forms part of a research project undertaken for NEDLAC.
PRESENTERS:
Faizel Ismail: Dr Faizel Ismail is an Adjunct Professor at the UCT School of Economics and a TIPS Research Associate. He has previously been an advisor to the dti on International Trade and Special Envoy on the African Growth and Opportunity Act and served as the Ambassador Permanent Representative of South Africa to the WTO (2010-2014).
Malose Letsoalo: Malose is the Director of Americas Bilateral Trade Relations in the International Trade and Economic Development Division (ITED) of the Department of Trade and Industry (the dti).
Christopher Wood: Chris is a TIPS economist focusing on trade and industry policy. He previously worked as a researcher in economic diplomacy at the South African Institute of International Affairs.
Tinashe Kapuya: Tinashe is the head of international trade and investment intelligence at the Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz).
Date: Tuesday 24 January2017
Time: 13h30 – 16h00
Venue: TIPS Boardroom, 234 Lange St, Nieuw Muckleneuk, Pretoria
RSVP by email: natasha@tips.org.za to confirm attendance.
TIPS Development Dialogue on behalf of Partnership for Action on Green Economy
DESIGNING POLICY FRAMEWORKS FOR A CLIMATE-COMPATIBLE INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT TRANSITION IN SOUTH AFRICA
The South African Government is progressively introducing the policy changes aimed at supporting the transition to a sustainable development pathway. These processes aim to manage a balancing act and a highly contested and fluid operating environment. This reinforces the need for robust and evidence-based planning and policymaking. Furthermore, the multi-layered and multi-faceted nature of the policymaking exercise, fraught with unknowns, uncertainties, incomplete information and external variables calls for an incremental, iterative and flexible approach. This session presents the state of play in South Africa, introducing a policy pyramid perspective, and proposes a practical way forward to design a climate-compatible industrial development pathway in South Africa.
PRESENTER: Gaylor Montmasson-Clair, TIPS
Gaylor Montmasson-Clair is a Senior Economist at TIPS, leading the institution’s work on Sustainable Growth. He holds a Master’s degree in International Affairs from the Institut d’Etudes Politiques (Sciences Po) of Grenoble, France as well as a Master’s degree in Energy and Environment Economics from the Grenoble Faculty of Economics, France.
DEVELOPING GREEN TRADE AND INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA
The transition to a green economy is seen as an important tool to respond to the multiple developmental challenges in South Africa. In this context, the nexus of green industry and trade, and the identification and assessment of sectors that offer particular opportunities for green industrial development and trade, are core to this transition. This session presents preliminary findings on the identification of challenges and opportunities for advancing green industries and related trade opportunities in South Africa. The presentation will be followed by a facilitated discussion to further identify and assess economic sectors that offer particular trade opportunities (import substitution and/or export potential) from the perspective of green industrial development.
PRESENTERS: Christopher Wood and Shakespear Mudombi, TIPS
Christopher Wood is an Economist at TIPS, focusing on trade and industry policy. He holds a Master’s degree in Development Studies from the University of the Witwatersrand.
Shakespear Mudombi is an Economist at TIPS, focusing on sustainable growth issues. He holds a PhD in Environmental Management from the University of South Africa and a Master’s degree in Agricultural & Applied Economics from the University of Zimbabwe (with electives done at University of Pretoria).
BUILDING A VALUE CHAIN FOR THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY IN AFRICA
The Nigerian Market for automobiles is substantial and can readily sustain an automobile industry. In 2012, the country imported about $4 billion worth of automobiles of which about two thirds were pre-owned. Estimated annualdemand for vehicles is over half a million made up of 100,000 new and 400,000 used. As at 2012, the population of the middle class was 38 million and growing, assuring a sustained market for the automotive industry. Opportunities exist for South African automotive Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) to participate in this market and achieve economies of scale. Alec Erwin will share findings from a recently completed research project.
PRESENTER: Alec Erwin, Ubu Holdings
Alec Erwin was previously Minister of Public Enterprises (2004-2008), Minister of Trade and Industry (1996 -2004) and Deputy Minister of Finance (1994-1996). He has also been President of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (1996-2000). Alec was previously General Secretary of the Federation of South African Trade Unions (1979-1983) and the Education Officer for the Congress of South African Trade Unions (1986-1988). He was a member of the African National Congress National Executive from 1994 to 2007. Alec has an Honours degree in Economics from the University of Natal where he was a lecturer in the Economics Department. He has an Honorary Doctorate from the University of KwaZulu-Natal and is currently an Honorary Professor at the University of the Western Cape. He previously sat on the Honorary International Investment Council of President Jonathan in Nigeria and on the Togo Presidential Investment Advisory Council and is presently on the Board of Togo Invest.
PROMOTING LOCAL MANUFACTURING IN SOUTH AFRICA'S MOTORCYCLE INDUSTRY: THE CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
The South African motorcycle industry is a small market in global terms and the registration figures of motorcycles in the country on an annual basis have been in progressive decline. There is currently no local manufacturing of motorcycles in South Africa and no policy in place to develop the industry. The industry is entirely reliant on imports and will require significant support to contribute to the country’s manufacturing value-addition. Is there scope to develop this industry and expand into the export market?
PRESENTER: Sithembiso Mtanga, TIPS
Sithembiso Mtanga is a senior researcher at Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS). He joined TIPS in 2007 and completed a Master’s Degree in Economic Policy in 2012.
Presenter: Professor Karl Ove Moene, Department of Economcs, University of Oslo
Professor Karl Ove Moene is a Professor at the Department of Economics, University of Oslo and the founder and leader of the Centre of Equality, Social Organisation and Performance (ESOP) at the University of Oslo. Professor Moene has published over 60 articles in top international journals, covering a wide range of topics including equality, wage compression, welfare, social democracy, the Scandinavian model, Scandinavian equality, and the European social model, among others.
He is also the author of several books, including Trade Union Behaviour, Pay Bargaining and Economic Performance, Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1993 and Alternatives to Capitalism, co-edited with J Elster, Cambridge University Press, 1989.
PRESENTER: DR NEVA MAKGETLA
Neva Makgetla has undertaken extensive research into South African economic issues, published widely, and contributed to a number of national economic policy processes and debates from 1994. Until 2015, she was Deputy Director General for economic policy in the Economic Development Department. Before that, she was Lead Economist for the Development Planning
and Implementation Division at the Development Bank of Southern Africa. She has worked at
a senior level in the Presidency and other government departments, and for seven years was
head of the COSATU Policy Unit. She has a PhD in economics and before 1994 worked for
over 10 years as an economics lecturer.
TOPIC: PRESENTATION OF THE LATEST QUARTERLY MANUFACTURING BULLETIN
Understanding the trends and views of manufacturing firms contributes to improved implementation of sector strategies and industrial policy.
The Quarterly Manufacturing Bulletin is an initiative of the Manufacturing Circle that provides current views of manufacturing firms and an analysis of trends in the South African manufacturing sector. The focus of this development dialogue will be to present the findings of the survey covering the first quarter of 2016 and have a discussion around strategies to support the manufacturing sector in ways that support employment and equitable economic growth.
TIPS investigated the market dynamics within the African continent that determine the levels of manufacturing and trade of Motor Vehicles and parts thereof.
The presentation will focus on the top traded vehicles and components in Africa, the key multinational corporations and original equipment manufacturers meeting the current demand, as well as indicate which priority markets are under performing given their trade potential. It will also look at the impact of the factors that hinder intraregional trade flows of the automotive industry within the African continent.
PRESENTER: SITHEMBISO MTANGA
Assistant Programme Manager: Trade and Industry (TIPS)