Dr Lederman will present his recent research piece prepared with William F. Maloney, Lead Economist from the Development Economics Research Group of the World Bank. Dr Maloney has published extensively on issues related to international trade and finance, informality, developing country labour markets, innovation and growth. Dr Lederman will be accompanied by his colleague, Alberto Behar. Alberto studied at the University of Cape Town and attained his
doctorate in Economics from the University of Oxford. Prior to joining the World Bank, he was a post-doctoral research fellow in the Centre for the Study of African Economies in Oxford and he has published in the fields of Labour Economics and International Trade.
Please note that a draft of the manuscript can be found at:
Does What You Export Matter? In Search of Empirical Guidance for Industrial Policies
The discussion will draw on information gathered on a face to face basis by Stephen Timm from
entrepreneurs and government agencies in Brazil, India and South Africa in 2010. The discussion
will focus on the following issues:
The report, which contains some key learnings on Brazil and India in the area of business support, market access and access to finance for small businesses is available on TIPS' home page
(www.tips.org.za) together with an executive summary.
Jennifer Widner is Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Woodrow Wilson School of Public and
International Affairs and Director of the Mamdouha S. Bobst Center for International Peace Justice at Princeton
University. Before joining Princeton in 2004, she was Professor of Political Science at the University of Michigan
and Associate Professor of Government at Harvard until 1994.
Professor Widner's specialization is on Democratic Institutions and on Constitutions in developing countries,
particular in Africa. Her current research focuses on constitution writing and constitutional design, as well as
institutions and service delivery in developing countries, especially Africa. Her interests are however across a
range of areas, in constitution writing and conflict resolution, in institutional performance, in the development of
judicial institutions, and in African politics.
She has published extensively and across a variety of journals (Democratization, Journal of Development
Studies, Daedalus, the American Journal of International Law, etc.) on a range of topics. She is author or editor
of several books, including Building the Rule of Law (W. W. Norton), a study of courts and law in Africa and
Economic Change and Political Liberalization in sub-Saharan Africa (John Hopkins University Press).
Introduction
China became South Africa's biggest trading partner in 2009, when total trade between the two countries amounted to US$14.1 billion (ZAR119.5 billion). China's appearance at the top of the rankings was partly due to the global recession, which affected trade levels of the industrialised countries far more than those of emerging markets. Germany had been South Africa's biggest trading partner up to 2008, when Germany-South Africa trade totalled US$17.9 billion (ZAR148.3 billion), compared with US$ 14.2 billion (ZAR 116.8 billion) between South Africa and China. But in 2009, South Africa's trade with Germany dropped 35.5 percent in US dollar terms, while trade with China rose marginally by 1.8 percent and China moved to the top of the rankings. But total trade between South Africa and China had grown by 26.5 percent per annum (in US dollar terms) between 2000 and 2009, so that it was only a matter of time before China became the country's largest trading partner.1
The importance to South Africa of its trade relationship with China raises the question as to whether the foreign direct investment (FDI) relationship between the two countries is equally significant. While much has been written about China's growing investment presence in South Africa and in many other African economies, very Little of this discussion has been based on detailed empirical analysis or been located explicitly within the theory of foreign direct investment. It is important to examine the FDI linkages not only quantitatively, but also qualitatively, in terms of their impact on
economic growth and on the internationalisation of business in the two countries. This paper investigates these issues looking at the FDI links in both directions between China and South Africa.
The paper has two parts. Part A examines the size and structure of the bilateral FDI relationship between South Africa and China. Section I reviews the estimates provided in the literature regarding the size of the relationship. Section II reviews the FDI policies of the two countries, on both inward and outward FDI. Section III examines official data from both countries on the value of FDI stocks and flows between them, and Section IV assesses the importance of the bilateral relationship to
each partner by contextualising it within the two countries' overall FDI stocks and flows, also using official data. Sections V through VII turn to firm-level data from The EDGE Institute FDI Database, a living database with verified data on firms' cross-border operations. Section V reports on the number of firms and their sectoral distribution, while Sections VI and VII discuss firms' dates of entry and mode of entry respectively. Section VIII concludes Part A of the paper.
Part B presents case studies of two sectors in which the China-South Africa FDI relationship is prominent: assembly of home electronic appliances ('brown goods') by Chinese firms in South Africa, and financial services in both countries. The case studies use firm interviews and extensive documentary analysis to examine both the internationalisation process of firms from the two countries as well as the broader economic impact within the two economies of their FDI relationship. The discussion is framed by the analytical questions and policy challenges raised by the growing importance of 'South-South' FDI, of which the China-South Africa link is an example.
Brent Cloete from DNA Economics will discuss the motivation for a carbon tax, its history around the world, its likely economic, social and environmental impacts and the considerations for an optimal tax design.
Peet du Plooy from TIPS will then consider the role that a carbon tax could potentially play as an instrument of macro-economic policy and its role in terms of the international climate negotiations.
About Brent Cloete:
Brent Cloete is an Economist at DNA Economics (http://www.dnaeconomics.com). Brent has provided strategy and advisory services to a number of public and private sector clients in South Africa and has worked on issues in a number of African countries including manufacturing diversification in Mozambique, trade facilitation in East Africa, prospects for economic recovery in Zimbabwe, and an organisational review of priority ministries in Rwanda. His current focus is on climate change economics. Brent led a team working on a study for the National Economic Development and Labour Council (NEDLAC) on the potential use of economic instruments to mitigate climate change in South Africa. He is currently part of a team assisting the WWF with its strategy to guide South Africa towards a low-carbon economy, and is involved in a project to evaluate and manage the impact of climate change on the South African fruit and wine industry. Brent holds an M.Comm in Economics from the University of Stellenbosch.
About Peet du Plooy:
Peet is the manager of the Sustainable Development project at TIPS. He has a degree in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Pretoria. After working in energy R&D at the national utility Eskom, he joined the global environmental NGO, WWF, as Trade & Investment Advisor for South Africa. He was elected in 2009 as chair of the South African green industries association, the Environmental Goods and Services Forum. His areas of expertise are networked infrastructure (including energy, transport and ICT) and the economics of sustainability.
Dr. Matthew Stern & Prof. Roman Grynberg
Chair: Xavier Carim, ITED (the DTI)
Xavier Carim is deputy director-general of International Trade & Economic Development at the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI). He was previously chief director in the ITED division responsible for negotiating bilateral and regional trade agreements as well as negotiating at the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
Professor Roman Grynberg is a trade economist currently Research Fellow at Bostwana Institute of Development Policy Analysis (BIDPA). He is the former head of the Trade and Regional Integration Section and Deputy Director of the Economic Affairs Division of the Commonwealth Secretariat. He has worked extensively on trade issues confronting Pacific Island countries. Generally, Roman has a passion in helping the development of small states. In 2006, he published WTO at the Margin, Small States of the Trading Systems, Cambridge University Press. In 2007, he published Commodity Prices and Development (with S. Newton), at Oxford University Press, USA.
Dr. Matthew Stern is a trade economist with a wide range of public and private sector experience. He has worked for First National Bank; the South African Department of Trade and Industry; the National Treasury of South Africa; and the World Bank. He is the founder and a Director of Development Network Africa Economics (DNA Economics), a private economic consulting company based in Pretoria. Matthew holds a PhD in Development Studies from the University of Sussex.
Please note: Professor Grynberg's presentation will be uploaded shortly.
Dr. Matthew Stern's presentation is based on the following publication:
http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/faculty/flatters/writings/ff&ms_sacursf_2006.pdf
Professor Johann Fedderke
Chair: Alan Hirsch, The Presidency
About Professor Johann Fedderke
Johann Fedderke is a Professor at Pennsylvania State University. He holds the Helen Suzman Chair in Political Economy and a position in the Business School at the University of the Witwatersrand. He is also the Director of Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA). Professor Fedderke's research interests centre on the determinants of economic growth, with a special focus on the role of institutions in long run economic development.
Professor Fedderke has an MPhil and PhD in Economics from the University of Cambridge, and has held tenured positions at the City University of London, the University of the Witwatersrand, and the University of Cape Town. He has served as Visiting Professor at the RAND Graduate School, Oxford, and the University of the Witwatersrand.
Professor Fedderke has published extensively and made substantial empirical and theoretical contributions to the field of economics in South Africa and beyond providing cross-country, panel and country specific time series evidence on the interaction of growth and institutions.
To download Professor Fedderke's presentation click here.
Professor Medhi Shafaeddin
About Professor Medhi Shafaeddin
Professor Mehdi Shafaeddin is a development economist and holds a D.Phil. from Oxford University. He is currently an international consultant affiliated to the Institute of Economic Research, University of Neuchâtel, Switzerland and is engaged in research and training. The former Head, Macroeconomics and Development Policies Branch, Globalization and Development Strategies of UNCTAD, he is the author of many articles on trade policy, industrialisation, economic reform and development policies in international journals.
Professor Shafaeddin's recent work includes: Trade Policy at the Crossroads: The Recent Experience of Developing Countries (Macmillan, 2005) and Competitiveness and Development; Myths and Misconceptions, Anthem Press, forthcoming.
Professor Shafaeddin's visit in South Africa is linked to a variety of events. He is the keynote speaker at the Fourth Annual Conference on Development and Change (ACDC) held at the University of the Witwatersrand (WITS). He is also presenting at a high level policy workshop to be held at the dti.
For more information on the ACDC Conference, please consult: http://www.caleidoscop.org/Members/janina/news10/fourth-annual-conference-on-development-and-change-acdc-johannesburg-south-africa-april-9-11-2010
Johan Fourie
About Johan Fourie
Johan Fourie is lecturer in the Department of Economics at Stellenbosch University. Johan is currently pursuing his PhD in Economic History at Utrecht University. His interests are wide ranging and include not only trade in services but also South Africa's economic history, infrastructure and the Economics of Sport. Johan's latest publications include "An application of attractiveness measures to evaluate the structure of the Currie Cup" in South African Journal for Research in Sport, Physical Education and Recreation, forthcoming and "A note on infrastructure quality in South Africa" in Development Southern Africa, Vol. 25, No. 4, October 2008. In 2008 he participated to the TIPS Annual Forum and presented on "The Development and Importance of Travel Service Exports from South Africa".
About Wamkele Mene
Wamkele Mene holds the position of Director: Trade in Services at the International Trade & Economic Development Division of the dti. He focuses on multilateral, bilateral and regional trade in services negotiations. As South Africa's Lead Negotiator on services trade, Wamkele provides strategic and policy leadership in all trade in services negotiations that South Africa is involved in. An integral part of Wamkele's work is the crafting and negotiation of favourable market access conditions for South African exporters of services. He is a graduate of Rhodes University, the University of Detroit Mercy and the Centre for International Studies & Diplomacy at the University of London.
About Professor Melville Saayman
Professor Saayman is at the School of Business Management in the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences at North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus. He is an expert in Tourism Economics and in Tourism management and development. Professor Saayman is Director of the Institute of Tourism and Leisure Studies
(see http://www.tourisminstitute.co.za/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2&Itemid=2).
Dr. Neil Rankin
About Dr. Rankin:
Dr Neil Rankin is a Senior Lecturer and the founding Director of the African Microeconomics Research Umbrella (AMERU) in the School of Economic and Business Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand (Wits).
Dr Rankin obtained his doctorate from the Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford in 2005 and has, since then, been based at Wits. His research interests are in the field of applied microeconomics. These include: the links between firm performance and labour market outcomes; the impact of trade on firms and workers; the microeconomic aspects of inflation and pricing; and the determinants of educational outcomes. Much of this research is based on primary data that he has been involved in collecting, both in South Africa and a number of other African countries.
Dr Rankin's recent publications include: "South African Exporting Firms: What Do We Know and What Should We Know", Journal of Development Perspectives, 4 (1): 93-118 with Edwards, L. and Schoer, V. (2008) and "Price setting in South Africa 2001 to 2007 - stylised facts using consumer price micro data", Journal of Development Perspectives, 4 (1): 93-118 with Creamer, K. (2008).
TIPS has the pleasure to invite you to the following Development Dialogue Seminar:
Professor Albert Berry on
About Professor Albert Berry:
Albert Berry is Professor Emeritus of Economics and Research Director of the Programme on Latin America and the Caribbean at the Centre for International Studies at the University of Toronto.
Professor Berry obtained his PhD from Princeton in 1963. His main research areas, with focus on Latin America, are labour markets and income distribution, the economics of small and medium enterprise, and agrarian structure and policy. However, his main ongoing research project is on the role of small and medium enterprises under the current open-economy setting of Latin American and other developing countries, and a related analysis of the labour market impacts of increasing openness.
Professor Berry has worked with the Ford Foundation, the Colombian Planning Commission, and the World Bank, and acted as consultant for a number of international and other agencies. He has, in the recent past, worked on South Africa's industrial structure, with a particular focus on SMMEs.
Professor Berry has published more than 100 papers in learned journals and is the editor or co-editor of a number of books including Critical Issues in International Financial Reform (Transaction Publishers, 2003), Labor Market Policies in Canada and Latin America (Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001), and Poverty, Economic Reform, and Income Distribution in Latin America (Lynne Rienner, 1998).
TIPS has the pleasure to invite you to the following Development Dialogue Seminar:
Dr.Veena Jha
About Dr. Jha
Dr. Veena Jha is a Visiting Professorial Fellow at the Institute of Advanced studies, University of Warwick, UK, and a research fellow at the International Development Research Centre, Canada. She is also the executive director of Maguru Consultants Limited, London, UK.
Dr Jha holds a PH.D from the London University, U.K. She has worked extensively on trade and environment issues for over twenty years. She has worked with the United Nations in various capacities for over twenty years. She was the Coordinator of an important UNCTAD/DFID/Government of India initiative on 'Strategies and Preparedness for trade and Globalisation in India'.
Dr Jha has published twelve books on trade and development issues, articles in journals, and was a member of some consensus building initiatives on trade and environment issues in the last decade. She has been a member of several national and international Advisory Boards, notably the United Nations Secretary General's Task Force on Millennium Development goals. She has served as an expert on technical committees of the Government of India, industry associations, and non-governmental organisations on trade and development issues. She has advised several developing country governments on trade and development issues.
Nicola Viegi (UCT)
Ben Smit (BER & Stellenbosch)
& Christopher Loewald (National Treasury)
About the panel members:
Dr Christopher Loewald was appointed Deputy Director-General of the new Economic Policy Division of the National Treasury in March 2006. He ran the 2006 Budget as Acting Deputy Director General for the Budget Office and the Chief Director for Fiscal Policy. From 1998 to 2005 he was responsible for macroeconomic policy and international economic policy, including the development of the inflation targeting framework. He co-chairs the Macroeconomic Standing Committee of the Reserve Bank and Treasury, and is a member of the South African Statistics Council. He completed his M.A. and Ph.D. at Johns Hopkins University.
Prof Ben Smit is currently Director of the BER and Professor of Economics at the University of Stellenbosch. He was appointed Director of the BER in 1998 but continues to lecture post-graduate students in the Department of Economics, which he joined in 1975. In 1985/86 Prof Smit spent a year at the University of Pennsylvania and the Wharton School of Econometrics in the USA.
Professor Smit has been involved with numerous consulting positions including at the Department of Finance (1992 - to date), the Development Bank of Southern Africa (1994 - 1995) and the World Bank (1996 - 1998). He was involved with the macro-Economic Strategy for Growth, Employment and Redistribution (GEAR) in 1996.
Prof Smith is a Member of numerous editorial boards - including those of Studies in Economics and Econometrics and of Management Dynamics: Contemporary Research Journal of the Southern Africa Institute for Management Scientists.
Prof Nicola Viegi is an Associate Professor in economics at the University of Cape Town. A graduate from the Scottish Doctoral Programme in Economics, he has been a lecturer in economics at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, invited lecturer at the University of Malta and at the Ecole Superior de Commerce in Toulouse. He has been a regular Visiting Scholar at De Nederlandsche Bank. Nicola's main areas of research are economic policy theory, macroeconomic modelling and regional macroeconomic integration. Current research includes inflation targeting under uncertainty, monetary policy and asset prices, and macroeconomic integration in Southern Africa.
Dr. Neva Makgetla
About Dr. Neva Makgetla:
Dr Neva Makgetla is lead economist for research and information at the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA), which she joined in October 2008. She is seconded part-time as Sector Strategies Co-ordinator for the Presidency.
From 2006 to 2008, Dr Makgetla worked at the Presidency full time on sector strategies. From 2000 to 2006, she was policy co-ordinator for fiscal and monetary policy and, from 2005, head of the policy unit at the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU). She represented labour as a member of the Securities Regulatory Panel, the Financial Sector Charter Council and the Employment Equity Commission.
Since 2003, Dr. Makgetla has had a fortnightly column in Business Day.
From mid-1995 to 2000, Dr. Makgetla worked for the South African government, including, between 1997 and 2000, as Deputy Director General for Remuneration and Conditions of Service and chief negotiator for the State as employer.
Before entering the public service, Dr. Makgetla worked for the National Labour and Economic Development Institute (NALEDI), which is associated with the COSATU. She lectured in Economics at universities in Africa and the U.S. from 1982 to 1994, including as senior lecturer at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg from early 1991 to late 1994. In this period, she was a member of the Department of Economic Planning of the African National Congress of South Africa, and in 1993/4 was economics co-ordinator of the Reconstruction and Development Programme.
Dr. Makgetla completed her B.A. (Hons) at Harvard University and her Ph.D. in Economics in Berlin.
RSVP by email: Ipeleng@tips.org.za to confirm attendance.
Cheese and wine will be served after the talk.
The presentation slides for the Seminar are available below: