Abstract: 

The International Energy Agency stated in its World Energy Outlook 2012 that global conventional crude oil production peaked in 2008. Total world oil exports have been stagnant since 2005 as oil exporting countries consume more of their own output and some battle against depletion. Unconventional oil production is growing, but the economic and environmental costs are large and the net energy return is very low. The Middle East North Africa region, home to the largest share of remaining oil reserves, is in political turmoil, threatening disruptions to oil supplies.  

Within this context, oil importing countries such as South Africa need to prepare for oil price and supply shocks. This Development Dialogue will interrogate research being undertaken for the UK Department for International Development on "oil shock mitigation strategies for developing countries", with SA as a case study. The focus includes preparations for both short-term oil shocks (precipitated for example by geopolitical or extreme weather events) and long- term strategies to ensure energy and specifically liquid fuel supply security in a context of global oil depletion, declining world oil exports, falling energy return on investment, and increasing oil price volatility. This Dialogue is of relevance to not only to the energy sector, but also to transport, macro-economics, trade and industry, and agriculture.

About the speakers

Jeremy Wakeford: Dr Jeremy Wakeford is an economist specialising in energy and sustainability. He is a Senior Lecturer Extra- Ordinary in the School of Public Leadership at Stellenbosch University and consults to government departments, private sector clients and NGOs. He is currently leading a research project developing 'oil shock mitigation strategies for developing countries', commissioned by the UK's Department for International Development. 

Bongani Motsa: Mr Bongani Motsa is a macro-economist specialist at the Department of Energy. He is part of the team that is developing the Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) for South Africa. Prior to joining the Department, he worked on African economic integration for Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS). He holds a Master's degree in economics (majoring in econometrics) from the University of Pretoria.  

  • Date Thursday, 11 April 2013
  • Venue TIPS Office, 227 Lange Street, Nieuw Muckleneuk, Pretoria.
  • Main Speakers Main presenter: Jeremy Wakeford, Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) South Africa Discussant: Bongani Motsa, Department of Energy

Abstract


Using data from two surveys evaluating South Africa's investment climate that were administered by the World Bank, I found evidence suggesting that there exists a relationship between perceptions of managers with regard to labour regulations and firm performance. Firms whose managers perceived labour regulations to be burdensome performed worse than other firms. They grew more slowly and were less likely to invest their profits in the establishment than other firms.
There is also evidence suggesting that where firms perceive labour regulations to be burdensome, they will substitute away from the conventional employment contract (regular or permanent contract) towards more atypical employment contracts (temporary or part-time contracts) which have a lower regulatory burden. There is evidence that also suggests firms are not limited in their ability to substitute towards this atypical employment despite limits imposed by South Africa's labour legislation. I found no evidence to suggest that firms who find labour regulations to be burdensome will choose to substitute away from labour towards capital.


About the Speaker

Dinga Fatman is an economist at TIPS. He joined TIPS in 2011 to provide research assistance in the industrial development pillar. He is in the process of completing his Master's degree in Economics at the University of KwaZulu-Natal. His Masters dissertation topic was entitled: “Labour Regulations and Firm Performance in South Africa”. Dinga's general research interests involve South Africa's investment climate issues.

  • Date Thursday, 23 August 2012
  • Venue TIPS Offices, 826 Government Avenue, Entrance at the Corner of Percy, Pretoria
  • Main Speakers Dinga Fatman

Stephen Timm is a South African policy researcher and journalist who has written on small business and entrepreneurship for almost 10 years. Between 2003 and 2010 he wrote for Big news, a free sheet newspaper aimed at small business owners. He has since also written on small business for a number of other business publications, including Business Day, Business Report and Entrepreneur magazine. He currently writes for the government's news agency BuaNews, where he reports from Parliament. He has also travelled to four emerging countries in the last two years to research programmes and policies that the South African government can learn from to bolster support to small enterprises. Earlier this year he presented a research report, funded by the Department of Trade and Industry and economic think-tank Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) on what South Africa can learn from Chile and Malaysia to boost support to small businesses. The report was a follow up to a research report he presented last year for TIPS titled, How to boost support from small business: Lessons from Brazil and India. Timm also won the Africa SMME Award for Journalist of the year in 2005. He has a higher diploma in journalism from Rhodes University and a History Hons from UCT. He lives in Cape Town.

  • Date Thursday, 05 July 2012
  • Venue TIPS Offices, 826 Government Avenue, Entrance at the Corner of Percy, Pretoria
  • Main Speakers Stephen Timm

As Public Employment Programmes (PEPs) gain popularity as social safety nets the world over, there is very little that speaks to the problem of measuring their impact on local economic development (LED), yet this is a key part of the policy case for programmes such as the Community Work Programme in South Africa.


On further examination, this lack of methodological clarity seems to apply to impact evaluation of LED interventions in general – and is not confined to the context of public employment programmes.


This paper provides a scoping study of a range of methodologies currently in use, and assesses their strengths and weaknesses in relation to different dimensions of local economic development.


Please join us to discuss the paper and to contribute to the debate on this issue.

  • Date Thursday, 14 June 2012
  • Venue TIPS Offices, 826 Government Avenue, Corner of Percy St, Pretoria
  • Main Speakers Evans Chinembiri & Mbofholowo Tsedu

Ellen Hagerman has nearly 10 years of experience working on regional economic development issues including trade, infrastructure, food security and governance. She has worked for the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) for 13 years as a Program Manager and Senior Analyst and has covered a diversity of other issues including corporate social responsibility and global environmental issues. While at the Canadian High Commission in South Africa representing CIDA's regional program for Southern and Eastern Africa, she was responsible for managing CIDA support to the African Peer Review Mechanism, the African Capacity Building Foundation, Southern African Trust and Southern African AIDS Trust. She also led two donor working groups on HIV/AIDS and food security and was the donor representative on two working committees linked to the Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program (CAADP). Ellen is also a professional facilitator and has facilitated sessions on human rights, gender equality and intercultural communications as well as recent meetings on HIV/AIDS, health and food security. Ellen recently completed a research paper on the challenges to regional infrastructure in Africa for DBSA and is working as a research fellow at TIPS providing advice and undertaking research on issues related to regional economic development.


Glen Robbins is a part time Researcher at the School of Development Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal and freelance consultant specialising in regional and local economic development with a focus on regional and city economic development strategies, infrastructure planning and financing and trade and industrial policy. Previously he headed up the Economic Development and City Enterprises functions in the eThekwini Municipality (Durban). Since 2003 he has been involved in teaching and research at the School of Development Studies and has contributed journal articles and book chapters on subjects ranging from municipal infrastructure investment to industrial policy and local economic development. He has also authored and co-authored reports for the Cities Alliance, UNCTAD, ILO and other multi-lateral bodies. In recent years he has worked with UNCTAD on a range of research projects in Southern and Eastern Africa and has recently completed a report, together with David Perkins, on infrastructure and mining investment in Tanzania and Mozambique for the Making the Most of Commodities Project coordinated at the University of Cape Town and the Open University (UK).

  • Date Friday, 01 June 2012
  • Venue TIPS Offices, 826 Government Avenue, Entrance at the Corner of Percy, Pretoria
  • Main Speakers Ellen Hagerman, Glen Robbins

Francis Fay is Deputy Head of Unit in DG Agriculture and Rural Development of the European Commission, in the unit for Africa, Caribbean and the Pacific, G20/G8 and FAO. He has been closely associated with the development of agricultural product quality policy, including the protection in the EU of geographical indications. Francis is also part of the EPA negotiation teams with each African region. He formerly worked on the US and Cabada desk in agriculture. He has a background in agri-environment policy and read law at Trinity College, Dublin in Ireland.

  • Date Monday, 28 May 2012
  • Venue TIPS Offices, 826 Government Avenue, Entrance at the Corner of Percy, Pretoria
  • Main Speakers Francis Fay

Dr. Robert Kirk is Senior Vice President at AECOM International Development and was until recently the Chief of Party at the Southern African Trade Hub.

Robert, who is an expert in the area of trade policy analysis, has extensive experience in regional trade policy. He was formerly a policy advisor to the SADC Secretariat and served as an advisor to the Ministry of Finance in Swaziland on the SACU renegotiations (1995-2000).


Dr. Kirk has published on the new Southern African Customs Union Agreement, on rules of origin, on Non Tariff Barriers in Eastern and Southern Africa.

  • Date Friday, 30 March 2012
  • Venue TIPS Offices, 826 Government Avenue, Entrance at the Corner of Percy, Pretoria
  • Main Speakers Robert Kirk

Wouter Schalken is a Namibian based researcher specialized in a number of areas around strategic tourism planning, analysis and development.


Wouter has worked for a number of development agencies (such as the UNDP, SIDA, USAID, the GTZ, the World Bank and UNESCO amongst others) at project-specific, national and regional levels. He has worked extensively on the African Continent (in Southern Africa, Ghana and Sierra Leone), in the Middle East (in Yemen) as well as in island states (such as the Maldives) where he has been involved in the formulation and evaluation of particular tourism development projects and strategies.


Wouter's project-specific expertise is extensive and includes developing implementation and management plans for tourism projects in all areas, including in wildlife areas. He has been engaged in a number of new eco-tourism projects for which he has had to identify economic opportunities. Wouter has also had to develop capacity building and awareness-raising in tourism in the course of his career. Beyond project work, Wouter has helped decision makers in
the identification of barriers to development and investments in tourism at country-wide levels.

  • Date Monday, 26 March 2012
  • Venue TIPS Offices, 826 Government Avenue, Entrance at the Corner of Percy, Pretoria
  • Main Speakers Wouter Schalken

Hamid Rashid is Senior Adviser for Macroeconomic Policy in Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) of the United Nations. He leads a new UN initiative to provide alternative and credible policy advice to the Member States on fiscal, monetary and exchange rate related issues. The macroeconomic policy advice of the United Nations covers both short-term economic fluctuations and shocks and long-term national development strategies for sustainable and equitable growth. Dr. Rashid brings to DESA over twenty years of experience, working for the Government of Bangladesh and also for UNDP, the World Bank and UNICEF in Dhaka, Washington D.C. and New York.

Dr. Rashid earned his Ph.D. in Finance and Economics from Columbia University in New York, working under his advisor and mentor, Professor Joseph Stiglitz - the winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize in Economics. With Professor Stiglitz, he co-authored a monologue, “Travesty of Free Trade” in 2006, which was translated in over eight languages and published in over 200 newspapers worldwide. He obtained his MPA from Columbia University and Bachelor of Science degree from the University of Texas. His research interest includes international finance, macro-economic policies, financial market liberalization and their impact on economic growth and development. Dr. Rashid has taught graduate level courses in economics and public policy at the Columbia University, University of Manchester and the London Business School. He has widely traveled in Latin America, Africa, Asia and Europe.

  • Date Tuesday, 13 March 2012
  • Venue TIPS Offices, 826 Government Avenue, Corner of Percy, Pretoria
  • Main Speakers Hamid Rashid
  • Organisation United Nations Department of Economic Affairs

About the Presenter:

Mmatlou Kalaba a research fellow at TIPS, specialising in trade research. He also carries out TIPS' capacity-building initiatives in the Southern African region, providing training courses on applied analytical and methodological tools. He currently holds a position in the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of Pretoria. Some of the projects at university of Pretoria include The Joint Agribusiness Department of Agriculture Forum for Africa (JADAFA) under the auspices of Department of Agriculture, Forestry and
Fisheries (DAFF) and the Agriculture Business Chamber (ABC) as well as the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP).

Current and previous responsibilities and projects include bilateral and multilateral trade analyses, SADC TRdae Database, the SADC Mid-Term Review, tariff and non-tariff analyses, reviews of tariff policies and related competitiveness issues and the Southern African Trade Database.

Mmatlou was previously with the National Agricultural Marketing Council (NAMC) and the National Department of Agriculture (NDA) as an economist and senior economist, respectively. His responsibilities included an investigation into impact of deregulation on the citrus industry and transformation in the agricultural sector. He also participated in the Food Price Monitoring Committee that investigated high food prices, the impact of deregulation on the wheat and citrus industries and transformation in the agricultural sector, and was involved
in developing regional research capacity.

  • Date Friday, 27 January 2012
  • Venue TIPS Offices, 826 Government Avenue, Corner of Percy, Pretoria
  • Main Speakers Mmatlou Kalaba
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