Sunday Times - 14 April 2013

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Introduction to Economy-wide Modelling for Policy Analysis: 11-15 November, 2013

TIPS is pleased to announce a workshop on computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling, to be held in Pretoria.

CGE modelling is one of a number of approaches to economy-wide analysis that have become accessible and practicable as data and computer based techniques have developed. An increasing number of economists use this framework to analyse real world issues that were previously approached through less comprehensive partial equilibrium methods. As part of its commitment to ensuring that Southern Africa benefits from these development, TIPS has (co)presented a series of related short workshops over the past 13 years. The current workshop is part of this on-going programme.

The workshop is designed specifically for people who need to use the results of economy-wide models to inform their analysis of real world issues. It will integrate theory, real world data, hands-on computer work and real-world applications.

In particular, participants will be

• Introduced to the micro, macro and trade theories that underlie typical CGE models,
• Provided with an overview and practical examples of Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) and of parameter and elasticity estimation methods which typically provide the data on which CGEs are built,
• Taken through various applications with special emphasis on the economic interpretation of results, and
• Exposed to issues involved in using models for specific applications such as the analysis of trade, public finance, regulation and environmental economics.

The models have been set-up to run through an Excel interface, with the specialised modelling language (GAMS) running in the background. This is designed to keep the focus on the economics rather than the technicalities of modelling. The applications use models developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and are adapted by the workshop instructors to suit the Excel interface for a range of southern African economies. Participants will apply what they learn to a group mini-project which will be presented at the end of the workshop.

The workshop is targeted at those who need to understand the potential and limitations of the use of these approaches without themselves becoming modellers. As such it should appeal to policy makers and analysts in both the public and the private sectors, to students and to academics. The workshop will also provide a foundation for those who wish to become modellers by taking future workshops on actual modelling techniques.

No previous exposure to CGE modelling is required, although it will be an advantage if participants be familiar with SAMs and have a very good understanding of Excel.

Workshop leaders are Dirk Ernst van Seventer and Rob Davies. 

Workshop fees (which include teas, coffees and lunches): R10 000 for South African resident participants, R10 000 for African participants and those from other developing countries and R15 000 for other participants.

Registration closing date is Friday 30 August 2013. Seats will be reserved until the payment closing date of 4 October 2013.The offering of the workshop is dependent on attracting a minimum number of 15 students by the time of the payment closing date while the maximum number of students is 20. Note that TIPS will not make refunds after the payment due date unless the workshop is cancelled. TIPS's invoice documentation (tax clearance, bank clearance, etc) will only be sent on request by registered post. It is therefore important to make sure that TIPS is on your organisation's list of preferred suppliers and to factor-in sufficient time for these processes.

If you are interested in attending this workshop please complete the application form below and send to:

Dirk Ernst van Seventer (denves@xtra.co.nz) or Rob Davies (robdavieszim@gmail.com)

Official project name: Scoping a Green and Inclusive Growth Economy Observatory for Africa (GIGEO-Africa)

Client: TIPS

Funder: International Development Research Centre (IDRC)

Duration: February-April 2013

Summary

The Sustainable Growth pillar is driving an Africa-wide initiative to investigate the state of the green economy on the continent. TIPS organised in March 2013 a week-long workshop in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania on scoping a Green Economy Observatory for Africa (GEO-Africa).

The workshop, organised with the support of Canada’s IDRC, gathered relevant research institutions and policymakers from Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa and Tanzania to discuss green economy issues in an African context. Based on background documents and an original proposal developed by TIPS in co-operation with the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) in South Africa, discussions were aimed at engaging on the local, regional and continental specificities of the green economy in Africa and the development of a programmatic proposal to assess the state of the green economy on the continent.

Photo: Shutterstock

Official project name: Commercial Climate Change Risks and Opportunities in South Africa

Client: Camco

Funder: British High Commission

Duration: May 2009 – November 2010

Summary

TIPS participated in a research project led by Camco, an international consulting firm specialising in climate change solutions, and financed by the British High Commission. This considered the indirect effects that climate change could have on South Africa's economy, ranging from impacts on the tourism sector, aviation and food exports, to commercial opportunities in low carbon technologies and the promotion of alternative carbon markets.

In addition to the main report, a series of 18 sectoral reviews and two case studies on the construction industry, and renewable energy and the draft Integrated Resource Plan for electricity, were produced.

A multi-stakeholder workshop was held in August 2009 to present the study and debate the effect that the climate challenge could have on the South African economy.

In May 2010, a Low Carbon Growth Seminar was hosted to disseminate the findings of the report to all relevant stakeholders.

Main Report

Climate Change: Risks and Opportunities for the South African Economy – An Assessment of Mitigation Response Measures

Main report

Case Studies

The Construction Industry’s Path towards a Low Carbon Trajectory

Renewable Energy and the Draft IRP 2010: The Winds of Change

Presentations

Stakeholder workshop - 14 August 2009

Towards Low Carbon Growth in South Africa - 6 May 2010

Official project name: Trade and climate change: Policy and economic implications for South Africa

Client: Energy Research Centre at the University of Cape Town

Funder: Energy Research Centre at the University of Cape Town

Duration: 2010-2011

Summary

Climate and trade issues lie at the intersection of two of the world’s most contested, delayed and important multilateral negotiations: climate change, under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and international trade, as regulated by the World Trade Organization (WTO).

In August 2010, TIPS was commissioned by the Energy Research Centre at the University of Cape Town, under their Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) project, to complete a scoping assessment of the inter-relationship between international trade and climate change negotiations as it affects policy-development in South Africa.

The paper highlights two key variants of measures which pose a challenge to both these negotiations, specifically border carbon adjustments and the liberalisation of trade in environmental goods and services.

The findings of the study were presented by TIPS to the BASIC (Brazil, South Africa, India and China) Group meeting under the auspices of the UNFCCC in Tianjin, China in October 2010.

Official project name: Technical support on economic modelling of impacts of international policies and mechanisms on markets, sectors, climate finance and technology on South Africa / GIZ Project: DEA Climate Change Support Program

Client: Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA), Chief Directorate - International Climate Change Relations and Negotiations

Funder: Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ)

Duration: 15 April 2012 - 31 March 2013    

Summary  

TIPS was contracted in 2012/2013 by GIZ to provide technical assistance to the DEA on three topics in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations:

• The use of (carbon) markets to improve the allocative efficiency of mitigation efforts;
• The use of (carbon) finance to reduce the cost of developing country mitigation and adaptation actions; and
• The use of sectoral mechanisms (to extend the coverage of mitigation commitments and to raise finance for adaptation and mitigation).

As part of this project, TIPS produced a comprehensive report for the South African delegation to the UNFCCC on Markets, Sectoral Approaches and Finance, including specific recommendations on negotiation positions.

TIPS also developed a spreadsheet-based Integrated Assessment Model, dubbed Basic Assessment Tool of the Impact of Climate Action (BATICA), which aims to demonstrate the impacts of markets, non-market mechanisms (such as carbon price floors and ceilings), financial support and innovation on the cost of global climate action and the distribution of this cost among countries or sectors).

In addition to the continual engagement with DEA officials, TIPS ran workshops to present the findings of the report and the model to the delegation members and government officials.

TIPS also provided on-going and on-site support to the South African delegation at the Bonn Climate Change Conference (AWG-KP 17, AWG-LCA 15 and ADP 1) in Bonn, Germany (14-25 May 2012), the Bangkok Climate Change Conference (informal additional sessions of the AWG-LCA, AWG-KP and ADP) in Bangkok, Thailand (30 August - 5 September 2012) and the Doha Climate Change Conference (COP 18 – CMP 8) in Doha, Qatar  (26 November – 7 December 2012).

TIPS also provided support to DEA during two BASIC Experts Forums – one in Johannesburg, South Africa in July 2012 and one in Beijing, China just prior to 18th Conference of the Parties (COP18).

Official project name: Green Jobs in South Africa / Part of the Social Dialogue for Green and Decent Jobs. South Africa - European Dialogue on Just Transition project

Client: Sustainlabour Foundation

Funder: European Union

Duration: 7 March 2012 – 20 April 2012

Summary

TIPS was commissioned in 2012 by the Sustainlabour Foundation to produce a comprehensive report on green jobs and related policy frameworks in South Africa. The research forms part of the Social Dialogue for Green and Decent Jobs: South Africa - European Dialogue on Just Transition project, co-funded by EuropeAid and Sustainlabour, in which the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) acts as a partner organisation.

The research was published by Sustainlabour in February 2013 in a report titled Green Jobs and related policy frameworks: An overview of South Africa. TIPS presented the report findings at a Training Workshop for South African Trade Unions on Green and Decent Jobs in Johannesburg, South Africa in November 2012.

Official project name: Financing Needs and Preconditions for the South African Renewables Initiative (SARi)

Client: KfW Entwicklungsbank

Funder: KfW Entwicklungsbank

Duration: 30 August 2010 - 1 December 2010

Summary

In 2010, the KfW Entwicklungsbank commissioned a study to determine the feasibility of, and preconditions for, the South African Renewables Initiative (SARi) during the stage of its conceptualisation. Special attention was paid to the role that the German government could play as an international funder of SARi and the implications of this support for the German government, German businesses, and international climate change negotiations.

The project highlighted the scope, development and implementation efforts of SARi, with a particular focus on the possible avenues through which a collaborative role could be played by donor institutions and countries in the implementation of SARi. TIPS conducted the study in collaboration with the Ecologic Institute, a private not-for-profit thinktank for applied environmental research, policy analysis and consultancy, and IMBEWU Sustainability Legal Specialists (Pty) Ltd, to provide German and South African perspectives and knowledge. 

Photo: Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality

Official project name: Green Industries Strategy

Client: Department of Trade and Industry

Funder: Department of Trade and Industry

Duration: 2011

Summary

TIPS has carried out pioneering work in the field of green industries. TIPS provided technical support to the Department of Trade and Industry (the dti) through the part-time secondment of its Programme Manager for Sustainable Growth. TIPS assisted the department in establishing a Sector Strategy for Green Industries as well as a Sub-Sector Strategy for Solar and Wind Power. This work directly led to the establishment of the Green Industries desk at the dti.

TIPS also provided assistance to the dti (as part of the secondment) in finalising the Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme for renewable energy, which is expected to lead to the installation of 3 725 MW of renewable energy in the country.

Official project name: Green Jobs - An estimate of direct employment potential of a greening South African economy

Client: Industrial Development Corporation, Development Bank of Southern Africa and TIPS

Funder: Industrial Development Corporation, Development Bank of Southern Africa and TIPS

Duration: 2011

Summary

TIPS, the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) and the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA) contributed to a groundbreaking report that estimated the direct job opportunities from a greening economy in South Africa.

The joint report, launched in December 2011, estimated the employment potential in the formal sector of the green economy in South Africa to be about 98 000 new direct jobs in the short term (2011-2012), almost 255 000 in the medium term (2013-2017) and around 462 0000 employment opportunities or part-time jobs in the long term (2018-2025).

Manufacturing and construction jobs each comprise about 10% (46 000) of the total number of jobs, with most associated with operation and maintenance (O&M) services. In total, 26 industries were covered including sectors such as energy generation, energy and resource efficiency, emission and pollution mitigation, and natural resource management. In the long term, almost 50% of this job creation potential stems from natural resource management, activities associated with biodiversity conservation and ecosystem restoration, as well as soil and land management. Payment for ecosystem services could also generate substantial employment opportunities.

Energy generation comes second with more than 130 000 employment opportunities (28% of the total), growing rapidly from 13 500 (14%) in the short term. Job creation in energy and resource efficiency is expected to double from 31 500 in the short term to 68 000 in the long term, accounting for under 15% of the total. The potential of emission and pollution mitigation is more limited. The sector should still result in about 32 000 jobs in the long run.